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Sorry to burst your COVID-19 'social bubble' but even small gatherings are getting riskier – CBC.ca

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4 years ago

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For months, Canadians have been bubbling up with other friends and family to socialize safely during the pandemic.

But with COVID-19 case counts rising in many communities, kids back in schools and more people returning to work, many public health experts agree that what worked as a safe approach in the early days of the lockdown now comes with more risk.

“I honestly think with the return to school right now, most people’s bubbles have burst,” says epidemiologist Ashleigh Tuite. “You’re talking about large numbers of connections.”

In Ontario, “social circles” allow you to see up to 10 people without the usual pandemic precautions in place as long as all of those family members, friends or neighbours make a pact to socialize only with each other, while in Alberta, the cap for your “cohort” is your household plus up to 15 other people.

In B.C., the guidelines for a “bubble” are a little looser. Officials say the members of your immediate household can be “carefully expanded” to include outsiders, with the goal of limiting the number as much as possible — since these are people you’re allowed to kiss, hug, chat with and dine with, without masks or distancing.

It’s a concept being adopted in several countries around the world. And while it works well in principle, experts warn it may be harder to maintain at this point in the pandemic.

Bubble makes sense in ‘theory’

“As a theory, the bubble makes a lot of sense,” said Dr. Dominik Mertz, an associate professor in the division of infectious diseases at Hamilton’s McMaster University. “But there’s a lot of confusion from people over what it is.”

He also added it can be tough to do safely, particularly if the bubble involves multiple households “who all have different risks.”

Say you have two four-person households socializing without the usual pandemic precautions. On paper, it follows the Ontario and B.C. guidelines.

But what if one person is back at work, leaving them exposed to dozens of colleagues? Or either family’s children are in school, where physical distancing and mask wearing might be a challenge?

A small sphere of contacts can quickly expand to include everyone that each family member comes in contact with, which means the bubbling approach really isn’t “useful” anymore, according to Tuite, an assistant professor at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health.

‘It’s not going to work for all people’

Raywat Deonandan, an epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Ottawa, agreed it’s not a “perfect model” at this point in the pandemic.

“It would’ve worked better back when things were fully locked down,” he said, adding there’s still merit in bubbling with a few close friends or family if everyone is cautious.

“I don’t want to remove any tools from the table,” he said. “If bubbling is working for some people, keep on doing it. But it’s not going to work for all people.”

For instance, a supply teacher, with a social network of students and staff in various classrooms or even buildings, can’t realistically have a social bubble without any precautions, Deonandan said, while someone working from home might be able to do it more safely.

WATCH | ‘Exponential’ growth in new cases in parts of Canada, says infectious disease specialist:

Parts of Canada are seeing ‘exponential’ growth in COVID-19 cases with Ontario headed toward a thousand new cases per day, says infectious disease specialist Dr. Michael Gardam. 0:58

For many people, losing their bubble could mean a long, lonely winter, made worse by mental health struggles or living alone.

“We know there are benefits to having that human contact,” said Dr. Nitin Mohan, a physician epidemiologist and assistant professor at Western University in London, Ont. 

But when dropping temperatures push people indoors, where transmission risk is higher, and families start making plans to gather over the upcoming stretch of holidays, it could make adhering to the bubble principles even tougher. 

Bubble burst? Isolate for a while 

Mertz says Canadians should already be planning for upcoming gatherings like Thanksgiving.

If outside-the-bubble family members want to celebrate together, find ways to do it safely, he says, by meeting outdoors and staying apart as much as possible. Otherwise, you’re blending several household bubbles together and upping the risk for everyone.

And if you do throw caution to the wind for a turkey feast, there’s another approach: Isolate yourself as much as possible for two weeks after the gathering. 

“That would give us downtime, so in case someone got infected, you are not spreading it from that gathering into each individual bubble,” Mertz said.

The various experts who spoke with CBC News acknowledged the challenges in sticking to even the safest bubbling plan, with peer pressure, slip-ups, and our innate desire for human connection all potential obstacles.

For that reason, Dr. Andrew Morris, an infectious disease specialist with the Sinai Health System and University Health Network in Toronto, stresses the onus shouldn’t just be on individuals to reduce transmission.

From a system-wide perspective, he says, provincial governments need to ensure every piece of the pandemic plan is adequately resourced: testing capacity, contact tracing, personal protective equipment and hospital staff.

“If you can’t test people who are symptomatic, then you can’t contact trace … and you can’t identify people who are about to become symptomatic and are unknowingly and unwittingly spreading the disease,” he said.

Ontario gathering sizes reduced

Ontario officials say they’re working to increase testing capacity amid hours-long lineups in multiple cities, including Ottawa and Toronto.

The province is also lowering the maximum size limit for private gatherings — things like backyard barbecues or dinner parties, with precautions in place among people in different social circles — in some regions.

The new limits will be 10 people indoors and 25 people outdoors, with hefty fines of $10,000 or more for organizers who flout the rules.

Deonandan calls that the “single best policy intervention” for controlling the spread of COVID-19, given the growing body of research showing large gatherings can be hot spots for virus transmission.

“Mask wearing, that’s important. Distancing, that’s important, too,” he said. “But time and time again we see explosions of cases in otherwise controlled areas … driven by these super-spreading events.”

Even smaller gatherings can fuel the virus’s spread, like infections after a family outing documented in Toronto, and a 10-person cottage trip — which would still meet the province’s new rules — that led to 40 new cases in Ottawa.

It’s not clear if anyone involved in those gatherings was bubbling together, and Mertz stresses in all situations, the same safety precautions apply.

“Whether you continue with the bubble concept or not, it comes down to the less people gathering, the more time you can spend outside, the more you can spread out — the lower the risk.”

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In the news today: Canadians watch as Americans head to the polls

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3 mins ago

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November 5, 2024

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Here is a roundup of stories from The Canadian Press designed to bring you up to speed…

Canadians watch as Americans head to the polls

Millions of Americans are heading to the polls Tuesday as a chaotic presidential campaign reaches its peak in a deeply divided United States, where voters in only a handful of battleground states will choose the country’s path forward.

Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump have presented starkly different visions for America’s future, but polling shows the two remain in a dead heat.

Canada’s ambassador to the United States Kirsten Hillman has been travelling across America meeting with key members of the Republican and Democratic teams to prepare for any outcome. On election night, after her embassy duties are finished, she’ll be watching the results with her husband and friends,

A shared history and 8,891-kilometre border will not shield Canada from the election’s outcome. Both candidates have proposed protectionist policies, but experts warn if the Republican leader prevails the relationship between the neighbours could be much more difficult.

A cause for concern in Canada and around the world is Trump’s proposed 10 per cent across-the-board tariff. A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report suggests those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

Here’s what else we’re watching…

5 things for Canadians to watch in U.S. election

Americans are facing a decision about the future of their country and no matter which president they choose, Canada cannot escape the pull of political polarization from its closest neighbour.

Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump present starkly different paths forward for the United States and the race for the White House appears to be extremely close.

The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner and its next president will be in charge during the review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement in 2026.

Harris has campaigned on the fact that she voted against the trilateral agreement, saying it didn’t do enough to protect American workers or the environment. The vice-president is largely expected to maintain President Joe Biden’s Buy American procurement rules.

The centrepiece of Trump’s agenda is a proposed 10 per cent across-the-board tariff.

B.C. ports shuttered as lockout takes hold

One of Canada’s most vital trade arteries is cut off as employers at most of British Columbia’s ports lock out their workers in a dispute involving about 700 unionized foremen.

The BC Maritime Employers Association says it defensively locked out members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 after the union began strike activity yesterday.

However, union president Frank Morena says the employers grossly overreacted to the union’s original plan for an overtime ban, adding that its negotiators are ready to re-engage in talks at any time.

Canadian political and business leaders have expressed concern with another work stoppage at the ports, after job action from the big railways earlier this year and a 13-day strike in a separate labour dispute last year.

The Greater Vancouver Board of Trade says it is relaunching its Port Shutdown Calculator, a tool to illustrate the economic damage caused by the labour dispute and introduced during the job action last year.

UN refugee chief: cutback wise amid housing crisis

The head of the United Nations refugee agency says it is wise of Canada to scale back the number of new refugees it plans to resettle if that helps stabilize the housing market and prevents backlash against newcomers.

Filippo Grandi, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, met with the prime minister in Ottawa on Monday.

His visit comes a little more than a week after the federal government announced plans to cut overall immigration levels by 20 per cent for 2025 — a cut that includes refugees and protected persons.

The move has drawn condemnation from migrant groups, including the Canadian Council for Refugees, who called the new plan dangerous and a betrayal.

Grandi says Canada remains a global leader in resettlement, but says that pro-refugee sentiment is fragile in an economic or housing crisis and it would be “really negative” to see it destroyed.

N.S. memorial honours service of eight brothers

A new memorial recently dedicated in a small Nova Scotia community honours eight brothers whose story of service in the Second World War had been all but lost to local memory.

The Harvie brothers from Gormanville, N.S., all served in Europe — six returned home, while two died and are buried overseas.

A black granite monument is now inscribed with the names and photos of Avard, Burrell, Edmund, Ernest, Ervin, Garnet, Marven and Victor Harvie. It stands in a small memorial park just up the road from their hometown, beside the Royal Canadian Legion branch in Noel, N.S.

The number eight is inscribed prominently in the middle of the memorial.

The monument in the town about 70 kilometres north of Halifax is the brainchild of legion president Jeff Thurber, who only became aware of the Harvie brothers’ remarkable story around the time of his branch’s Remembrance Day service last year. That was when he happened to see them mentioned in a memorial book kept by the legion.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.



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Demonstration outside Brampton Hindu temple broken up after weapons spotted: police

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November 5, 2024

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A Hindu temple in Brampton, Ont., where violence erupted over the weekend was the site of another demonstration on Monday night that police broke up after they say weapons were spotted in the crowd.

Peel Regional Police said in social-media updates that the demonstration was declared an unlawful assembly shortly before 10 p.m., after officers saw weapons “within the demonstration.”

Police say the demonstration converged at an intersection outside the Hindu Sabha Mandir temple, shutting down traffic along Gore Road in both directions, before crowds dispersed by 1 a.m.

Pro-Hindu groups who shared details of Monday’s demonstration suggested it came in response to Sikh separatists who protested a visit by Indian consular officials to the temple on Sunday.

Three people were arrested and a Peel police officer was suspended after Sunday’s protest, with social-media videos seeming to show fist fights and people striking each other with poles on what appeared to be grounds of the temple.

In response to Monday’s demonstration, Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown shared a video of a man he accused of trying to “direct violence against those of Sikh faith.”

“Agitators trying to incite violence need to be dealt with promptly and swiftly with the full extent of our hate laws,” Brown said in a Tuesday morning post on X.

The Canadian Press has not independently verified the contents of the video posts on social media.

Before Monday’s demonstration, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had condemned Sunday’s violence as a deliberate attack on a Hindu temple and an attempt to intimidate diplomats.

Canada expelled six Indian diplomats last month for allegations that they used their positions to collect information on Canadians in the Sikh separatist movement, and then passed the details on to criminal gangs who targeted the individuals directly.

India, which has rejected those allegations, has long accused Canada of harbouring terrorists involved in a Sikh separatist movement calling for an independent country called Khalistan. Canadian officials have said related extradition requests from India often lack adequate proof.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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B.C. ports shuttered as lockout takes hold in latest labour dispute

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4 mins ago

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November 5, 2024

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VANCOUVER – One of Canada’s most vital trade arteries is cut off as employers at most of British Columbia’s ports lock out their workers in a dispute involving about 700 unionized foremen.

The BC Maritime Employers Association says it defensively locked out members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 after the union began strike activity yesterday.

However, union president Frank Morena says the employers grossly overreacted to the union’s original plan for an overtime ban, adding that its negotiators are ready to re-engage in talks at any time.

Canadian political and business leaders have expressed concern with another work stoppage at the ports, after job action from the big railways earlier this year and a 13-day strike in a separate labour dispute last year.

The Greater Vancouver Board of Trade says it is relaunching its Port Shutdown Calculator, a tool to illustrate the economic damage caused by the labour dispute and introduced during the job action last year.

Board president Bridgitte Anderson says the latest port shutdown will disrupt $800 million worth of goods daily, with every hour of the closure fuelling inflation.

“This shutdown is the latest in a long line of highly damaging labour disputes that have hurt Canada’s economy and international reputation,” Anderson says.

“Through the Port Shutdown Calculator, we want to demonstrate the profound and escalating impact of this labour dispute.”

The employers and the workers represented by Local 514 have been without a contract since March 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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