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Stocks fall, commodities surge as war angst intensifies – Al Jazeera English

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Fresh talks Monday between Ukrainian and Russian officials made only limited progress on negotiating a cease-fire, the government in Kyiv said.

By Bloomberg

The turmoil on global financial markets intensified Monday as U.S. stocks plunged the most in 17 months and commodity prices relentlessly powering higher as the fallout from war in Ukraine threatened to the global economy.

The S&P 500 sank almost 3% for its worst day since October 2020, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index dropped 3.7%. Nickel surged 90% to a record on worry over potential shortages, oil settled at the highest in a decade and wheat approached records after a 7% jump. Earlier, the Euro Stoxx 50 and Germany’s DAX index closed in bear markets. The spread between two-year and 10-year Treasuries briefly dropped below 20 basis points, a level not seen since March 2020 and a bearish sign for the economy.

Russia’s war on Ukraine and the sanctions from U.S. and European allies on Russian assets have sent a jolt through financial markets that were already unsteady after two years of the pandemic and the threat of central banks pulling back on stimulus. Investors have grown leery of owning riskier assets as surging commodity prices exacerbate inflationary pressures that could force policy makers to tamp down growth.

“The longer oil prices and inflation remain elevated — and thereby threaten an early demise of this economic expansion and bull market — the more investors will trim their exposure to equities,” wrote Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. “Investor uncertainty should elevate the angst.”

Markets emerged from the weekend on edge after reports that the Biden administration is considering whether to ban the import of Russian oil and energy products, a move that could add to economic pressure as more companies pull out of the country in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. European Union governments were divided over whether to join the U.S.

The U.S. bond market’s 10-year inflation forecast jumped to a record 2.785%, while the yield on the benchmark Treasury bond rose 5 basis points at 1.78%. A gauge of the dollar rose for a third day, trading at the highest since 2020.

Bond market's gauge of inflation expectations rises to all-time high
There was no immediate statement from the Russian negotiators. With President Vladimir Putin saying Kyiv must agree to his demands if fighting is to end, the discussions face severe challenges.

Putin signed a decree allowing the government and companies to pay foreign creditors in rubles, seeking to stave off defaults while capital controls remain in place. Still, some holders of a $1.3 billion Gazprom PJSC bond due Monday said they received payment in dollars.

More businesses pulled back on their operations in Russia, including streaming giant Netflix Inc. and social-media service TikTok, which is owned by China-based ByteDance Ltd.

Meanwhile, China warned the U.S. against trying to build what it called a Pacific version of NATO, while declaring that security disputes over Taiwan and Ukraine were “not comparable at all.”

The global economy was already struggling with high inflation due to the pandemic. The Federal Reserve and other key central banks now face the tricky task of tightening monetary policy to contain the cost of living without upending economic expansion or roiling risky assets.

“There’s no easy map for navigating market volatility,” said Saira Malik, chief investment officer at Nuveen. “Volatility is normal late in economic cycles, and it is needed to some degree to generate positive returns in any environment. Investors, however, are concerned that this latest market disruption could hasten the end of the cycle.”

Here are some key events this week:

  • Apple new product event, Tuesday
  • EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
  • China aggregate financing, PPI, CPI, money supply, new yuan loans, Wednesday
  • Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe speaks, Wednesday and Friday
  • European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde briefing after policy meeting, Thursday
  • U.S. CPI, initial jobless claims, Thursday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • The S&P 500 fell 3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
  • The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.7%
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.4%
  • The MSCI World index fell 2.8%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.8%
  • The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0871
  • The British pound fell 0.9% to $1.3110
  • The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 115.26 per dollar

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 1.78%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to -0.01%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 1.30%

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.7% to $119.99 a barrel
  • Gold futures rose 1.7% to $2,000.30 an ounce–With assistance from Andreea Papuc, Abigail Moses, Peyton Forte and Isabelle Lee.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

___

Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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