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Stocks gain as war spurs pullback on Fed rate bets – BNN

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U.S. equities rose for a second day as economic data and uncertainty due to Russia’s war in Ukraine caused traders to pull back on bets the Federal Reserve will aggressively hike interest rates next month.

The S&P 500 advanced, with eight of the 11 sectors jumping more than 2 per cent. Meanwhile, gains in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 lagged as geopolitical tensions continued to weighed on richly-valued technology shares. 

While global stocks are staging a powerful bounce, the rebound remains small compared with the day-after-day declines that came in the weeks before the invasion. It’s coming in a market where fund managers cut positions furiously in January and February, loaded up on options-market insurance and plowed into short sales — precautions that may be feeding the velocity of the turnaround.

Russia said it was willing to hold talks with Kyiv. However, there was no indication of Ukraine acceding to demands nor signs of a halt in fighting. The U.S. plans to join allies in sanctioning Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Treasuries were flat while the dollar and gold retreated, signaling flagging demand for havens. Crude oil in New York fell to about US$92 a barrel. 

“What we are experiencing right now is a relief rally that basically caused many short sellers to cover their shorts. But I don’t think the volatility has concluded,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research. “At least in the near term, Wall Street is saying it’s time to go back to stocks — instead of being in cash or possibly being in Treasuries.”

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A prolonged conflict could deliver a major blow to global markets and slow the normalization of central bank policy that’s expected this year. Yet on the other hand, disruptions of raw materials and food could also stoke already-high prices and heap pressure on central banks to act faster to curb inflation. 

The Federal Reserve reiterated its view Friday that it will “soon” be time to raise interest rates. Markets still see around six quarter-point increases by the Fed, but bets on other central bank’s hiking cycles have been pared in recent days. 

“This conflict implies a further deterioration of the already tricky growth-inflation trade-offs central banks have been facing, making the upcoming decisions particularly hard,” Silvia Dall’Angelo, senior economist at the international business of Federated Hermes, wrote in a note to clients. “Downside growth risks from the geopolitical backdrop mean that they are likely to proceed gradually and cautiously.”

In contrast, Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, said the idea that risk assets should rally because the Fed was less likely to raise rates seemed like a “head fake.”

“The market has been incredible sanguine about the impact of the war in Ukraine, completely missing the reason the Fed is raising rates and why they can’t slow down their pace of tightening,” he said. “With inflation likely to be exacerbated by disruptions due to war, the Fed needs to do the opposite of what they would normally do, and that’s to fight an even bigger threat of inflation.”

U.S. consumer spending advanced by more than expected last month, despite inflation and the omicron virus variant. Yet, consumer sentiment was still down sharply from January, according to a University of Michigan index. 

“Solid economic growth confirms that the Fed does or can move forward with higher interest rates,” said CFRA’s Stovall. “Inflation says it needs to and higher economic activity says it has the ability to.”

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • The S&P 500 rose 2.2 per cent as of 4 p.m. New York time
  • The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5 per cent
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.5 per cent
  • The MSCI World index rose 2.5 per cent

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5 per cent
  • The euro rose 0.7 per cent to US$1.1266
  • The British pound rose 0.2 per cent to US$1.3412
  • The Japanese yen was little changed at 115.54 per dollar

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 1.97 per cent
  • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 0.23 per cent
  • Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 1.46 per cent

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5 per cent to US$92.37 a barrel
  • Gold futures fell 1.8 per cent to US$1,891.80 an ounce

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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