The world economy is shifting away from a high-growth bull environment and undergoing macro, secular changes that will drag down stock valuations in 2023 and beyond, according to Tim Gramatovich, chief investment officer of Gateway Credit Capital.
The market conditions that lifted markets in previous decades won’t necessarily continue in the future, he told Insider.
“We had the perfect bull market cocktail starting in the early 1980s — incredibly low valuations and the beginning of globalization and all its benefits, huge growth, low costs,” he said, adding that slowing population growth threatens the productivity of the workforce. “We are now looking at the mirror opposite going forward: very bad demographics globally, and a spent dividend on globalization and technology. So extrapolating valuation over the last couple decades makes no sense.”
He expects these structural shifts to leave a larger impact than any cyclical market trends. For example, critical costs for services labor, energy, food, and capital are going to remain high over the long term, even as overall inflation data shows recent signs of cooling.
All this is poised to hinder global growth, Gramatovich warned, which leads him to believe that stocks should be trading closer to 10 times earnings, rather than today’s multiples of 18 or 20.
For stocks to stage a sustainable rally, company earnings must be strong and robust, he said, but that would likely push central bankers to continue raising interest rates, which would subsequently weigh on equities once more.
Meanwhile, he pointed out that small-cap companies in particular present a valuation trap.
“When the tide goes out, large companies with lots of liquidity tend to be very aggressive on pricing to cover their fixed costs, crushing smaller competitors,” Gramatovich said.
But while stocks are poised for a downtrend, the outlook on debt is brighter. Helped by central bank rate hikes, the loan market’s main indices offer roughly 9% yields, he said.
“The next decade plus looks like a potential golden era for corporate credit. Given the central banks’ actions — you now have real yields available in high quality names which we haven’t seen since before the [Great Financial Crisis].”
Lithium Americas stock rises on GM’s $650 million equity investment – MarketWatch
Lithium Americas Corp.
stock was up 9.2% in premarket trading Tuesday after it said General Motors Co.
agreed to invest $650 million in the company to help develop Nevada’s Thacker Pass mine, the largest known lithium source in the U.S. Lithium Americas said the project would create 1,000 jobs in construction and 500 in operations. It would produce lithium for up to 1 million electric vehicles (EVs) a year. Lithium from Thacker Pass will be used in GM’s proprietary batteries for its EVs. “Direct sourcing critical EV raw materials and components from suppliers in North America and free-trade-agreement countries helps make our supply chain more secure, helps us manage cell costs, and creates jobs,” GM CEO Mary Barra said. Thacker Pass is scheduled to go into operation in the second half of 2026, the companies said.
Investment funds that are moving to defensive positions, and some that are not – The Globe and Mail
What are we looking for?
ETFs and DIY mutual funds that made notable changes to their defensive-sector exposure over 2022.
The year is off to a great start for equity investors, with most equity indexes posting single-digit gains on a year-to-date basis, perhaps fuelled by investors’ reinvigorated confidence that the world’s central banks have inflation under control. That said, a new economic environment of higher interest rates might prompt some investors to have a look at their sector exposures, perhaps allocating more to defensive sectors for risk-reduction purposes, or to more cyclical sectors if they’re bullish on market prospects. To help identify potential candidates, I thought to analyze funds that have made noticeable moves over the course of last year. To start with, I screened the Morningstar Direct database for Canadian-domiciled equity ETFs and DIY mutual funds for those that have a reasonable track record, denoted by their Morningstar Rating for Funds or “star” rating of three stars or better, implying that the initial universe performed at least as well as category peers.
I then looked at the sector allocations of each fund as they appeared at the end of 2022 and 2021. Specifically, I used Morningstar’s “super-sector” definitions to determine which funds have the largest changes in exposure to defensive sectors. Recall that Morningstar’s classification structure for stocks divides global companies into three “super sectors”: (1) cyclicals, which include basic materials, consumer cyclical, financial services and real estate stocks; (2) defensive, which includes consumer defensive, health care and utilities stocks; and finally (3) sensitive, which includes communications services, energy, industrials and technology companies. I used the change in exposure to the defensive sector over the 2022 calendar year as the sole metric to rank the list of three-star-or-better funds.
What we found
The accompanying table includes 10 funds that have shifted their exposure toward defensive sectors the most, and the 10 funds that have shifted the furthest away from defensive sectors. The table also displays fees, trailing performance, ratings and inception dates. It is worthwhile noting that the three funds that have moved most into defensive sectors (XMTM-T, FCIL-T and IQD-T) are “smart beta” products, which are rules-based in nature and do not follow the discretion of a portfolio manager. Interestingly, the three funds are exposed to quite different factors. Also noted is the fact that several smart beta products that look for exposure to dividends (such as FCUD-T, XHU-T and VIDY-T), have shifted away from defensive sectors, while RBC’s actively managed mutual funds have increased their exposure to defensive sectors.
This article does not constitute financial advice. Investors are encouraged to conduct their own independent research before purchasing any of the investments listed here.
Ian Tam, CFA, is director of investment research for Morningstar Canada.
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CPP Investments Anchors New IndoSpace Fund with US$205 Million Investment – Yahoo Canada Finance
MUMBAI, India, Jan. 30, 2023 /CNW/ – Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments) today announced an investment of US$205 million as an anchor investor in IndoSpace‘s new real estate fund. IndoSpace is a leading real estate company in India. The investment marks the first close for IndoSpace Logistics Parks IV (ILP IV), the company’s fourth development vehicle, targeting US$600 million of total equity commitments.
This is the latest venture between CPP Investments and IndoSpace. The first joint venture, IndoSpace Core, was established in 2017 and now owns the largest portfolio of stabilized modern logistics assets in India. CPP Investments has also invested in ILP III. Following the investment in ILP IV, the partnership will exceed US$1 billion in assets.
ILP IV will add an additional 25-30 million square feet to the IndoSpace portfolio, furthering IndoSpace’s leading position in the Indian market. ILP IV will focus on India’s largest logistics real estate markets: Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai, and Pune. The establishment of ILP IV follows on from the first three development funds, which have a combined total of 56 million square feet of modern logistics real estate in India.
Hari Krishna V, Managing Director, Head of Real Estate India, CPP Investments, said, “Over the past few years, we have made numerous investments in India’s industrial space, where we see strong demand as the manufacturing sector continues to grow and the e-commerce sector matures. We are pleased to be working with our longstanding partner IndoSpace to further capitalize on opportunities in this space and believe this investment will deliver strong risk adjusted returns for CPP contributors and beneficiaries.”
Brian Oravec, Managing Partner and CEO, IndoSpace Capital Asia, said, “We are excited to extend our successful partnership with CPP Investments. CPP Investments’ commitment to ILP IV is a testament to IndoSpace’s leadership in the industrial and logistics real estate space in India. ILP IV will allow us to continue to expand our unique national network to better serve our customers. Industrial and logistics infrastructure is a key enabler of economic growth. To meet India’s aim of becoming a US$5 trillion economy by 2025, IndoSpace is excited to continue to be one of India’s key infrastructure creators.”
About CPP Investments
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP InvestmentsTM) is a professional investment management organization that manages the Fund in the best interest of the 21 million contributors and beneficiaries of the Canada Pension Plan. To build diversified portfolios of assets, investments are made around the world in public equities, private equities, real estate, infrastructure and fixed income. Headquartered in Toronto, with offices in Hong Kong, London, Luxembourg, Mumbai, New York City, San Francisco, São Paulo and Sydney, CPP Investments is governed and managed independently of the Canada Pension Plan and at arm’s length from governments. As per September 30, 2022, the Fund totalled C$529 billion. For more information, please visit www.cppinvestments.com or follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
IndoSpace (www.indospace.in) is the largest investor, developer, and operator of grade A industrial and logistics real estate in India. IndoSpace has the largest national network of 50 logistics parks with 56 million square feet delivered/under development across 10 cities. With India’s largest and most experienced industrial real estate team, IndoSpace continues to lead the development of key logistics infrastructure for India’s economic growth. For more information, visit www.indospace.in and follow us on LinkedIn, Twitter, and Facebook.
SOURCE Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
View original content to download multimedia: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/January2023/30/c6051.html
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