With so much still unknown about a new virus multiplying in China, many countries are closing the curtains on Chinese travellers. But experts are raising doubts about whether that will actually help.
“People will find a way around. You can say, ‘Stop all direct flights,’ but that doesn’t stop all travel,” Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist based out of Toronto General Hospital, told Global News.
“If someone wants to get from Point A to Point B, they will find a way to do that. If there’s not a direct route, there will be alternative routes. This is just human nature.”
This week, Air Canada extended a suspension of its flights between Canada and the Chinese cities of Beijing and Shanghai until March 27. The airline first halted flights to the cities after the federal government issued a travel advisory in late January, urging Canadians to avoid all non-essential travel to mainland China because of the viral COVID-19 outbreak. The same recommendations have been in place for weeks.
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Dozens of other nations have implemented travel-related measures since the outbreak began in late December, including outright bans.
Canada, at this point, has not taken that route. The advisory currently in place is not a ban.
“The decision to travel is your choice, and you are responsible for your personal safety abroad,” it reads.
So while Air Canada has chosen to suspend its service to China, it’s not a requirement. It’s left airlines that offer service between Canada and China with a choice — to fly or to not fly.
1:38 Coronavirus outbreak: WHO says cases with no China travel history could be the ‘spark that becomes a bigger fire’
Coronavirus outbreak: WHO says cases with no China travel history could be the ‘spark that becomes a bigger fire’
As of Feb. 14, a number of international airlines are still operating between Canada and China throughout February, March and April. Hainan Airlines offered non-stop flights between Toronto and Beijing. China Eastern offered some non-stop trips between Toronto or Vancouver and Shanghai. And Air China had some non-stop flights between Vancouver and Beijing available.
Travel bans and quarantines are an age-old answer to stop the spread of the disease, but it’s exactly what the World Health Organization (WHO) has advised against since the outbreak began. The agency’s general-director, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, called the bans unnecessary and said they fan fear and stigma “with little public health benefit.”
“This is still and foremost an emergency for China,” he said.
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Of the more than 64,000 cases, 99 per cent are in China. Of the 1,384 deaths, all but two are inside China.
Banning travel from an affected country is an oversimplified response to a complex situation, said Bogoch, and it “can do more harm than good.”
Bogoch pointed to the 2009 outbreak of H1N1, which became a pandemic. Many countries banned travel from North America, its believed country of origin, despite the WHO saying there was “no rationale” for it.
2:06 Novel coronavirus outbreak: Travel restrictions rise with death outside China
Novel coronavirus outbreak: Travel restrictions rise with death outside China
“At best, it slowed down the spread of infection by two to four weeks. It certainly did not prevent this from turning into an epidemic,” Bogoch said.
The measures also come with huge economic consequences.
One study found that the travel restrictions related to H1N1 contributed to a 40 per cent decline in air travel to and from Mexico but did relatively little to stave off the disease.
While simply stopping flights may, by definition, have the ability to reduce new cases to certain regions, it’s not foolproof, said Jason Kindrachuk, a professor of emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba.
“While there is sustained human-to-human transmission in China, we have not seen this outside of the region. What this suggests is that self-monitoring by passengers coming from these regions has worked quite well,” he said.
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“But [travel bans] can also increase the isolation of regions that drastically need help.”
During the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak, travel bans actually made stopping the outbreak more difficult. The closed borders pinched a country already ill-equipped to cope with a rapidly spreading disease by “compromising connectivity to the region, mobilization of resources to the affected area and sustained response operations,” according to one study.
“The long-term ramifications of travel bans on both relations and economic tolls may outweigh any potential benefit from a travel ban,” Kindrachuk said. “Now, it’s also a question of how extensive a ban would be needed to even capture all potential cases, considering that there are increasing numbers across Asia at this point.”
3:34 Is it safe to travel during the coronavirus outbreak?
Is it safe to travel during the coronavirus outbreak?
With no Canadian travel ban in place and other airlines offering non-stop flights, why would Air Canada opt to keep China-bound flights grounded until March?
Optics play a huge role, Bogoch believes.
“Obviously, to the general public, the optics are favourable when we say we’re not having any more travel to that particular area,” he said.
“People say, ‘Well, this epidemic is existing on the other side of the world. If we simply stop air travel to that part of the world, we won’t import cases.’ It’s just not that simple.”
But the decision by Air Canada — or any of the dozens of international airlines that have chosen to suspend or reduce service to Beijing, Shanghai and, in some cases, Hong Kong — isn’t an overreaction to Ross Aimer, a former pilot and CEO of Aero Consulting Experts. Aimer said passenger demand to visit the countries should be considered, as it’s likely reduced dramatically.
“There are considerations for their own crew’s safety as well,” he said. “That’s become a big issue.”
Ultimately, the efforts to stop the spread lie at the heart of the outbreak, Bogoch said.
“And that’s what happening right now,” he said. “There are significant resources being poured into China and being utilized by China to essentially prevent further transmission of this virus.”
Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.
The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.
Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.
The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.
The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.
The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.
The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.
Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.
In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.
“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.
As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.
Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.
REGINA – Saskatchewan’s provincial election is on Oct. 28. Here’s a look at some of the campaign promises made by the two major parties:
Saskatchewan Party
— Continue withholding federal carbon levy payments to Ottawa on natural gas until the end of 2025.
— Reduce personal income tax rates over four years; a family of four would save $3,400.
— Double the Active Families Benefit to $300 per child per year and the benefit for children with disabilities to $400 a year.
— Direct all school divisions to ban “biological boys” from girls’ change rooms in schools.
— Increase the First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit to $15,000 from $10,000.
— Reintroduce the Home Renovation Tax Credit, allowing homeowners to claim up to $4,000 in renovation costs on their income taxes; seniors could claim up to $5,000.
— Extend coverage for insulin pumps and diabetes supplies to seniors and young adults
— Provide a 50 per cent refundable tax credit — up to $10,000 — to help cover the cost of a first fertility treatment.
— Hire 100 new municipal officers and 70 more officers with the Saskatchewan Marshals Service.
— Amend legislation to provide police with more authority to address intoxication, vandalism and disturbances on public property.
— Platform cost of $1.2 billion, with deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in 2027.
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NDP
— Pause the 15-cent-a-litre gas tax for six months, saving an average family about $350.
— Remove the provincial sales tax from children’s clothes and ready-to-eat grocery items like rotisserie chickens and granola bars.
— Pass legislation to limit how often and how much landlords can raise rent.
— Repeal the law that requires parental consent when children under 16 want to change their names or pronouns at school.
— Launch a provincewide school nutrition program.
— Build more schools and reduce classroom sizes.
— Hire 800 front-line health-care workers in areas most in need.
— Launch an accountability commission to investigate cost overruns for government projects.
— Scrap the marshals service.
— Hire 100 Mounties and expand detox services.
— Platform cost of $3.5 billion, with small deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in the fourth year.
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct .17, 2024.
VANCOUVER – More than a million British Columbians have already cast their provincial election ballots, smashing the advance voting record ahead of what weather forecasters say will be a rain-drenched election day in much of B.C., with snow also predicted for the north.
Elections BC said Thursday that 1,001,331 people had cast ballots in six days of advance voting, easily breaking a record set during the pandemic election four years ago.
More than 28 per cent of all registered electors have voted, potentially putting the province on track for a big final turnout on Saturday.
“It reflects what I believe, which is this election is critically important for the future of our province,” New Democrat Leader David Eby said Thursday at a news conference in Vancouver. “I understand why British Columbians are out in numbers. We haven’t seen questions like this on the ballot in a generation.”
He said voters are faced with the choice of supporting his party’s plans to improve affordability, public health care and education, while the B.C. Conservatives, led by John Rustad, are proposing to cut services and are fielding candidates who support conspiracy theories about the COVID-19 pandemic and espouse racist views.
Rustad held no public availabilities on Thursday.
Elections BC said the record advance vote tally includes about 223,000 people who voted on the final day of advance voting Wednesday, the last day of advance polls, shattering the one-day record set on Tuesday by more than 40,000 votes.
The previous record for advance voting in a B.C. election was set in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, when about 670,000 people voted early, representing about 19 per cent of registered voters.
Some ridings have now seen turnout of more than 35 per cent, including in NDP Leader David Eby’s Vancouver-Point Grey riding where 36.5 per cent of all electors have voted.
There has also been big turnout in some Vancouver Island ridings, including Oak Bay-Gordon Head, where 39 per cent of electors have voted, and Victoria-Beacon Hill, where Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau is running, with 37.2 per cent.
Advance voter turnout in Rustad’s riding of Nechako Lakes was 30.5 per cent.
Total turnout in 2020 was 54 per cent, down from about 61 per cent in 2017.
Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia, said many factors are at play in the advance voter turnout.
“If you have an early option, if you have an option where there are fewer crowds, fewer lineups that you have to deal with, then that’s going to be a much more desirable option,” said Prest.
“So, having the possibility of voting across multiple advanced voting days is something that more people are looking to as a way to avoid last-minute lineups or heavy weather.”
Voters along the south coast of British Columbia who have not cast their ballots yet will have to contend with heavy rain and high winds from an incoming atmospheric river weather system on election day.
Environment Canada said the weather system will bring prolonged heavy rain to Metro Vancouver, the Sunshine Coast, Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, Whistler and Vancouver Island starting Friday.
Eby said the forecast of an atmospheric weather storm on election day will become a “ballot question” for some voters who are concerned about the approaches the parties have towards addressing climate change.
But he said he is confident people will not let the storm deter them from voting.
“I know British Columbians are tough and they’re not going to let even an atmospheric river stop them from voting,” said Eby.
In northern B.C., heavy snow is in the forecast starting Friday and through to Saturday for areas along the Yukon boundary.
Elections BC said it will focus on ensuring it is prepared for bad weather, said Andrew Watson, senior director of communications.
“We’ve also been working with BC Hydro to make sure that they’re aware of all of our voting place locations so that they can respond quickly if there are any power outages,” he said.
Elections BC also has paper backups for all of its systems in case there is a power outage, forcing them to go through manual procedures, Watson said.
Prest said the dramatic downfall of the Official Opposition BC United Party just before the start of the campaign and voter frustration could also be contributing to the record size of the advance vote.
It’s too early to say if the province is experiencing a “renewed enthusiasm for voting,” he said.
“As a political scientist, I think it would be a good thing to see, but I’m not ready to conclude that’s what we are seeing just yet,” he said, adding, “this is one of the storylines to watch come Saturday.”
Overall turnout in B.C. elections has generally been dwindling compared with the 71.5 per cent turnout for the 1996 vote.
Adam Olsen, Green Party campaign chair, said the advance voting turnout indicates people are much more engaged in the campaign than they were in the weeks leading up to the start of the campaign in September.
“All we know so far is that people are excited to go out and vote early,” he said. “The real question will be does that voter turnout stay up throughout election night?”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
Note to readers: This is a corrected story. An earlier version said more than 180,000 voters cast their votes on Wednesday.
