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Storm only just beginning in the real estate investment market

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A portfolio manager’s job is to always flush out risks and factor them into the investment decision-making process, though year-end is naturally a time to look back and ahead.

Looking at things from a risk-per-unit-of-return basis has served us very well in markets such as the current one. With that in mind, here are three areas you may want to keep a very close eye on along with what we think are some much better alternatives.

Private real estate equity and debt markets

We think the storm is only just beginning in the real estate market and it could wreak havoc once this year’s rate hikes fully kick in and people wake up to the reality that we may not be going back to pre-2022 levels.

For example, Toronto housing market sales in November collapsed by 49 per cent from a year ago, and yet the composite benchmark price was only down 5.5 per cent during the same time frame.From an investment standpoint, there are some sizable cracks finally starting to appear in the sector that could easily turn into the biggest risk in 2023.

For example, Romspen Investment Corp. recently announced it will “temporarily defer payment” of redemptions from its $2.8-billion Romspen Mortgage Investment Fund. Starlight Group Property Holdings Inc., which owns $25-billion worth of apartment buildings and multifamily properties in Canada and the United States, just announced it is halting monthly payouts from two funds and has also started gating investor withdrawals.And, even more notable, Blackstone Inc.’s US$69-billion real estate fund started limiting withdrawals last week. We read that the fund was somehow able to post a net 9.3-per-cent return over the first three quarters of the year while publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) dropped 20 to 30 per cent in value. It isn’t a surprise that investors would cash in at a gain while comparable public market investments are down considerably.

There is a lesson in here for investors: if the net asset value of your fund has not moved, hit the sell button before the gates go up.If you want to stay invested in the sector, look at public REITs that are marked to market and trading at huge discounts to last year. You can also replace your exposure with structured notes, which in many cases have yields exceeding what you were earning in private real estate or private mortgages, but with liquidity and downside protection.

Technology stocks

One of the most interesting trades we’ve been following is the Nasdaq versus 20-plus-year Treasuries — via the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 and iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded funds — as they’ve been moving in unison all year. Both are down approximately 29 per cent over the past 12 months.

We’ve noticed that many investors don’t seem to realize technology equities have duration exposure (sensitivity to interest rates) given the timing of their companies’ cash flows as well as dependence on ultra-low rates and cost of capital to fuel their growth.For those looking to position around a reversal of interest rates or a so-called U.S. Federal Reserve pivot, we wonder if long-term bonds are the safer trade between the two, because they will outperform should there be an economic recession while tech stocks will sell off.

For now, we’ve been avoiding both, but have only just begun dipping our toes in the longer-duration bond market.

EAFE emerging markets

We have a zero-weight exposure to emerging markets such as China, since we just don’t see the path to recovery given the continual starting and stopping of its economy because of COVID-19 lockdowns.

We also have minimal exposure to Europe, Australasia and the Middle East (EAFE) given their poor energy policy, more so in Europe, which has been taken advantage of by Russia, thereby putting significant pressure on their economies.

There are also the currency risks in these regions against the U.S. dollar, which continues to gain in value as the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are unable to keep pace with the Fed.

We think resource-based markets such as Canada are the better alternative here due to their exposure to energy and materials. We also like the value segments of the U.S. market including health care, financials, energy and utilities.

There is always the caveat that the risks mentioned above get dealt with, but we wonder just how much is really factored into valuations.At least segments such as technology, REITS and even EAFE stocks are marked to market and are already considerably down this year compared to many private real estate and private mortgage funds that are not. This doesn’t mean these funds have a low correlation to public markets, but perhaps they have a heck of a lot more downside risk ahead.

Martin Pelletier, CFA, is a senior portfolio manager at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc, operating as TriVest Wealth Counsel, a private client and institutional investment firm specializing in discretionary risk-managed portfolios, investment audit/oversight and advanced tax, estate and wealth planning.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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