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Strong Fuel Demand Boosts Oil Prices

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Strong demand for oil products is helping to drag oil prices higher, although the risk of a U.S. default and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting are the two major factors oil markets are watching.

According to S&P Platts, global air travel has finally returned to pre-pandemic levels this month as total commercial flights per day averaged 105,682 in the first two weeks of May, up 20% year-on-year.

– Global jet fuel demand, however, is expected to remain below 2019 levels for now as efficiency gains and a slower rebound in long-haul travel, especially in Asia, limit the consumption upside for the fuel.

– IATA estimates that new airplanes trigger fuel efficiency gains of around 2% per year and the pandemic has seen a widespread drive to replace older aircraft.

– With international seat capacity now 10% below 2019 same-month levels, attesting to flights being on average shorter than before, a full jet fuel demand recovery to 8 million b/d isn’t expected until 2027.

Market Movers

– US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) agreed to buy shale producer PDC Energy (NASDAQ:PDCE) in a stock-and-debt deal worth 7.6 billion, adding 260,000 b/d of oil equivalent in output.

– Oil majors ENI (BIT:ENI) and Shell (LON:SHEL) might come under pressure again as Nigeria’s Bayelsa state claims it needs $12 billion to clean up decades-old oil spills, singling out the two companies as the main culprits. 

– Brazil’s national oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) said that the second exploration well drilled in the Aram pre-salt block off Sao Paulo’s coast discovered commercial reserves of oil, boosting reserves.

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Oil products seem to be dragging crude out of the quagmire before the OPEC+ meeting, with the strength in US gasoline futures lifting WTI and Brent well above $72 and $76 per barrel, respectively. Should the ongoing debt ceiling talks between House of Representatives speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden lead to a deal that prevents a government shutdown we might see a brief spike in oil prices, although attention seems to be gradually moving towards the upcoming June OPEC+ meeting.

Saudi Energy Minister Goes on the Offensive. Speaking at the Qatar Economic Forum, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman stated that OPEC+ will remain proactive and that oil speculators betting on prices to fall will be “ouching” again just as they did in April if they don’t mend their ways.

Activists Lambast G7 Over Gas Investments. The recent G7 meeting in Japan’s Hiroshima included calls for more gas investments in the West to phase out dependency on Russian energy, angering climate activists that think the group is using the Ukraine war as an excuse for more fossil fuels.

OPEC Asks Ecuador to Rejoin its Ranks. Three years after its departure in 2019, Ecuador has been invited by OPEC to rejoin the ranks of the oil group as the country’s previous problem – exceeding agreed production quotas – became irrelevant as production started to stagnate.

Nigeria Launches Megarefinery, But Not Really. Nigeria’s outgoing president Muhammad Buhari commissioned the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery – set to become the continent’s largest and at a cost of 19 billion also the most expensive – but its real start-up is expected in late 2023, at best.

Germany to Keep on Subsidizing Power Prices. Germany’s economy minister Robert Habeck stated Berlin plans to earmark some €4 billion annually to subsidize electricity prices for energy-intensive industries, capping power prices at 6 cents per KWh despite the Finance Ministry’s fierce opposition.

Australia Clinches US Critical Minerals Pact. Australia and the United States have agreed to treat the former’s domestic suppliers of critical minerals (such as lithium or rare earth metals) as domestic suppliers under the US Defense Production Act, as well as its hydrogen and ammonia companies.

Guyana Ups the Stakes in Exxon Row. After a Guyanese court ruled that US major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) needs to provide additional insurance against potential oil spills, the Texas-based firm riposted it could halt production at its Liza One platform altogether if the court doesn’t backtrack.

China Invests into Kazakhstan’s Petchem. China’s state-owned oil company Sinopec (SHA:600028) agreed on terms with Kazakhstan to build a gas-based petrochemical complex in the country’s Atyrau region, with the 1.275 mtpa ethylene capacity plant expected to have an FID next year.

ADNOC Offers More of Its Logistics Arm. Reacting to what it described as significant investor demand, the UAE’s national oil company ADNOC will be offering a larger stake in the upcoming IPO of its logistics and shipping unit L&S, potentially raising up to $800 million from the public offering.

Argentina’s Shale Patch Disrupted by Strikes. SPGP, the largest oil union in Argentina, representing 25,000 workers in the country’s Vaca Muerta shale play, launched an indefinite strike to demand better working conditions, triggered by another incident that resulted in a worker’s amputated arm.

Norway’s Oil Major Halts Key Wind Project. Norway’s national oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) indefinitely postponed its planned Trollving floating offshore wind farm that was supposed to power its Troll and Oseberg oil fields, citing inadequate availability of technology and rising costs.

Yemen Signs First Post-War Oil Deal. Merely several weeks after a ceasefire with Saudi Arabia, the Houthi-led government in Yemen signed a deal with China’s state-backed company AntonOil, seeking to produce 300,000 b/d of oil as the Middle Eastern country did before its protracted civil war.

Ford Shakes Up the Lithium Market. US carmaker Ford (NYSE:F) signed three long-term lithium supply agreements with Albemarle (NYSE:ALB), SQM (NYSE:SQM), and Nemaska Lithium, as lithium produced in the US or a country covered by a free trade agreement qualifies for IRA tax credit.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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