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Successful Investing is Hard

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After Charlie Munger passed away this week, I went looking through an old post I wrote about his investing principles from a decade ago.

There was a table I recreated that showed the annual returns from the Munger Partnership, which was the fund he ran before joining Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway for good:

The results are spectacular but look at how volatile his returns were. Munger was down more than 53% during the 1973-1974 bear market.

The losses didn’t matter, of course, because the gains more than made up for them.

The same dynamic applies to Berkshire Hathaway.

Munger joined Buffett full-time at the former textile company-turned-investment-arm in 1978. Since then Berkshire Hathaway has compounded capital at nearly 19% per year, an incredible return.

But there were plenty of drawdowns along the way to those unbelievable returns:

Over the past 40+ years Berkshire Hathaway has experienced drawdowns of -20%, -32%, -34%, -46%, -51%, -22% and -25%. That’s plenty of bear markets and crashes.

Which brings us to one of my favorite Munger quotes:

If you’re not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you’re not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you’re going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament, who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations.

Of course, being more philosophical about market fluctuations is not easy.

Losing money is no fun. Making money is hard. Investing is HARD.

It can be grueling for mere mortals like you and I but it’s even hard for legends like Munger and Buffett.

A few weeks ago I listened to one of Munger’s final interviews on The Acquired Podcast.

Even at 99 years old he was still cagey and sharp.

The overarching theme of Munger’s message in this interview was how difficult it was to produce such an enviable track record.

I loved his answer when asked if Buffett and Munger could replicate Berkshire Hathaway’s success if both we in their 30s starting out today:

The answer to that is no, we wouldn’t. We had… everybody that had unusually good results… almost everything has three things: They’re very intelligent, they worked very hard, and they were very lucky. It takes all three to get them on this list of the super successful. How can you arrange to have just […] good luck? The answer is you can start early and keep trying for a long time, and maybe you’ll get one or two.

Refreshingly humble.

Munger mentioned how hard it is to achieve investment success on multiple occasions:

Why shouldn’t it be hard to make money? Why should it be easy?

It was never easy. It’s thoroughly understood it was never easy, and it’s harder now. Those are the two. But it takes time. 

I knew when I was 70 that it was hard. It’s just so hard. I know how hard it is now. Always, people who are getting this 2 and 20, or 3 and 30, or whatever, they all talk because oh, it was easy. And they get to believing their own bullshit. And of course, it’s not very easy. It’s very hard.

I love it.

There are so many successful people today who try to make it seem like it should be easy to replicate their success.

If you just follow these 10 simple steps or read this one book or live by these inspirational quotes, blah, blah, blah.

Finding success can be simple but it’s never easy.

It’s even harder to recreate the success of someone else considering how much luck is involved in the process.

I’ll leave you with a Munger quote from Damn Right by Janet Lowe:

Each person has to play the game given his own marginal utility considerations and in a way that takes into account his own psychology. If losses are going to make you miserable – and some losses are inevitable – you might be wise to utilize a very conservative patterns of investment and saving all your life. So you have to adapt your strategy to your own nature and your own talents. I don’t think there’s a one-size-fits-all investment strategy that I can give you.

Amen.

 

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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