(Bloomberg) — The Swedish economy is robust enough to withstand the effects of the energy crunch that has gripped Europe and filtered into Scandinavia, Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said.
“We have a very, very strong economy,” Lofven said in an interview in New York on Sunday. “If we have dramatically higher prices in the long term that will affect consumption, but I don’t think we’re there.”
Sweden’s debt to gross domestic product ratio has held below 40% even during the Covid-19 crisis and remains one of the lowest in Europe. That measure is set to fall to about 35%, Lofven said.
Natural gas prices in Europe have more than tripled this year, sparking fears of surging inflation across the continent and even prompting the U.K. government to hold emergency talks with power suppliers.
While natural gas isn’t widely used in Sweden, it has spurred a jump in other energy costs, which have historically been among the lowest in the region. Consumer prices climbed more than expected in August, and Swedbank AB warned last week that inflation could reach the highest level since the global financial crisis in 2008.
One simple solution, according to Lofven, is to produce more power. The country normally has an annual surplus of about 25 terawatts that it sells to Europe — hydro power accounts for the biggest proportion of Sweden’s electricity production, followed by nuclear. By 2040, it plans to double electricity output from current levels, he said.
The current crisis reinforces the need for the European Union to work out how best to produce more electricity in the longer term, according to Lofven, who said last month he was stepping down as prime minister.
“We need to watch out,” he said. “The whole European Union needs to think this through.”
Economists expect inflation reaccelerated to 3.1% in February
Article content
People banking on an interest rate cut may not like the direction Canadian inflation is heading if analyst expectations prove correct.
Bloomberg analysts expect inflation to reaccelerate to 3.1 per cent in February when Statistics Canada releases its latest consumer price index (CPI) data on Tuesday, following a slowdown to 2.9 per cent year over year in January.
Advertisement 2
THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.
Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O’Connor, Gabriel Friedman, Victoria Wells and others.
Daily content from Financial Times, the world’s leading global business publication.
Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.
National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.
Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.
SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES
Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.
Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O’Connor, Gabriel Friedman, Victoria Wells and others.
Daily content from Financial Times, the world’s leading global business publication.
Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.
National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.
Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.
REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES
Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.
Access articles from across Canada with one account.
Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.
Enjoy additional articles per month.
Get email updates from your favourite authors.
Sign In or Create an Account
or
Article contentArticle contentCPI core-trim and core-median, the measures the Bank of Canada is most focused on, are forecast to come in unchanged from the previous month at 3.3 per cent and 3.4 per cent, respectively.
Policymakers made it clear when they held interest rates on March 6 that inflation remained too widespread and persistent for them to begin cutting.
Here’s what economists are saying about tomorrow’s inflation numbers and what they mean for interest rates.
‘Can’t afford missteps’: Desjardins Financial
The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures “have become biased,” Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy, and Tiago Figueiredo, macro strategist, at Desjardins Financial, said in a note on March 18, “likely overestimating the true underlying inflation rate.”
They estimated the central bank’s preferred measures of core-trim and core-median inflation are overemphasizing items in the CPI basket of goods whose prices are rising more than five per cent. After adjusting for the “biases,” they estimate the bank’s measures are more in the neighbourhood of three per cent — which is at the top of the bank’s inflation target range of one to three per cent.
Top Stories
Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.
By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.
Thanks for signing up!
A welcome email is on its way. If you don’t see it, please check your junk folder.
The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.
We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again
Article content
Advertisement 3
Article content“If the Bank of Canada ignores our findings, officials risk leaving monetary policy restrictive for too long, inflicting unnecessary pain on households and businesses,” they said.
Markets have significantly scaled back their rate-cut expectations based on the central bank’s previous comments. Royce and Figueiredo are now calling for a first cut in June and three cuts of 25 basis points for the year.
“Given the tightrope Canadian central bankers are walking, they can’t afford any missteps,” they said.
‘Inflict too much damage’: National Bank
The danger exists that interest rates could end up hurting Canada’s economy more than intended, Matthieu Arseneau, Jocelyn Paquet and Daren King, economists at National Bank of Canada, said in a note.
“As the Bank of Canada’s latest communications have focused on inflation resilience rather than signs of weak growth, there is a risk that it will inflict too much damage on the economy by maintaining an overly restrictive monetary policy,” they said.
They argue there is already plenty of evidence pointing to the economy’s decline, including slowing gross domestic product per capita, which has fallen for six straight quarters. The jobs market is also on the fritz with the private sector having generated almost no new positions since June 2023, they added.
Advertisement 4
Article content“Moreover, business survey data do not point to any improvement in this area over the next few months, with a significant proportion of companies reporting falling sales and a return to normal in the proportion of companies experiencing labour shortages,” the economists said.
Despite all these signs of weakness, inflation is stalling, they said, adding it is being overly influenced by historic population growth and the impact of housing and mortgage-interest costs.
The trio expect very tepid growth for 2024 of 0.3 per cent.
Recommended from Editorial
Economists on the February jobs data
What senior bank executives are saying about the economy
What the Bank of Canada needs to cut interest rates
Rising gas prices: RBC Economics
Higher energy prices likely boosted the main year-over-year inflation figure to 3.1 per cent in February, Royal Bank of Canada economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan said in a note.
Gasoline prices rose almost four per cent in February from the month before. But the pair believe a weakened Canadian economy and slumping consumer spending mean “price pressures in Canada are more likely to keep easing and narrowing (to fewer items in the CPI basket of goods).
China’s strong factory output and investment growth at the start of the year raised doubts over how soon policymakers will step up support still needed to boost demand and reach an ambitious growth target.
Industrial output rose 7% in January-February from the same period a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday, the fastest in two years and significantly exceeding estimates. Growth in fixed-asset investment accelerated to 4.2%, strongest since April. Retail sales increased 5.5%, roughly in line with projections.
Official economic data out of China for the January and February period came in better than expected. Industrial output rose 7%, higher than the 5% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll, and sped up from the 6.8% growth in December, according to data published Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Amazon’s new pharmacy won’t do much for its bottom line, analyst says
Off
English
Meanwhile, retail sales grew 5.5%, better than the 5.2% predicted by analysts but slowed from the previous period’s 7.4%.
Still, the country’s troubled real estate sector continues to weigh on the economy: Investment in property development fell 9%. Commercial real estate sales are also down double-digit percentages.
“The national economy maintained the momentum of recovery and growth and got off to a stable start,” the statistics office said in its release. Beijing typically releases combined data for January and February to smooth over distortions caused by the Lunar New Year holidays.
China’s shaky domestic demand
Clouding the strong numbers from Monday’s data release are the persistent signs of weak domestic demand in China. New bank lending in China fell more than expected in February, according to Reuters calculations based on People’s Bank of China data.