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Sweet-spot mortgage terms and 2025 predictions: This week's top real estate stories – The Globe and Mail

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Home of the Week – 77 Forest Hill Rd.Rob Holowka/Handout

Here are The Globe and Mail’s top housing and real estate stories this week, with the lowest mortgage rates available in Canada today, commentary from our mortgage expert and one home worth a look.

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Mortgage rates today range from bad to horrible, but there is a sweet spot

The cheapest mortgage rates today are for a fixed term of five years, but who wants to lock in for five years when rates are thought to be peaking, asks Rob Carrick. One-year mortgages make sense strategically because renewing in 12 months could let you tap into those lower rates, but the premium you’ll pay for having that opportunity is huge. Is there a sweet spot compromise between the two?

Why some mortgage renewal payments could rise into 2025 even with rates projected to drop

Desjardins’s models currently forecast an increase in variable-rate payments for people renewing in 2025-26, writes Robert McLister in his weekly column. That figure is based on the expectation that the Bank of Canada will drop interest rates by 2.75 percentage points by 2025.

But why are variable-rate payments set to increase so much if interest rates are projected to drop? The reason is that many payment hikes could be a result of borrowers paying off less principal to keep payments fixed in today’s high-interest climate.

This week’s lowest available mortgage rates

Canada’s leading nationally advertised rates barely moved in the last week. That’s a welcome development after the average Canadian mortgage rate surged 74 basis points in the past two months, writes McLister.

Is Canada’s approach to housing bad for our productivity?

Canada’s poor labour productivity is in the news these days, but there are few better places to start than with the country’s approach to housing, writes John Rapley in a column this week. When housing is a great investment, it can be a symptom of a sick economy, he writes. Additionally, everything from commute times to traffic or public transit has an impact on it.

Home of the week: A Toronto Forest Hill home

  • Home of the Week – 77 Forest Hill Rd.Ranjith kumar/Handout

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77 Forest Hill Rd., Toronto

Inside this 4,660-square-foot home, the living room has an oak floor, a wood-burning fireplace and a bay window overlooking the front garden. The formal dining room has a fireplace, oak floor and French doors leading to the conservatory.

On the second floor, a library has wall-to-wall bookshelves and cabinets, a recessed area for a desk and a fireplace with a surround of arts and crafts tiles. The house has four bedrooms, a recreation room, a sauna and a large laundry room.

What do you think is the asking price for this house?

a. $4,595,000

b. $7,295,000

c. $8,295,000

d. $10,295,000

a. The asking price is $7,295,000.

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

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