TORONTO – Fitting, really, is the transition for Major League Baseball, spring-boarding from a World Series finale marked by the internecine struggle over data-driven decision-making and COVID-19’s inconvenient realities, into an off-season that will be broadly driven by both issues.
Kevin Cash’s decision to remove Blake Snell from the sixth inning of Tuesday’s title clinching 3-1 win for the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Tampa Bay Rays had barely been made before it turned into the game’s latest referendum on advanced analytics. Predictably, the conversation became emotional and polarized, the-numbers-say-this set getting trashed by the trust-your-eyes-feel-for-the-game gang, all with the usual counter-productive shouting of bromides.
I’ll deep dive into that in a bit.
Bigger picture, that the divide surfaced in such a forceful manner on such a grand stage doesn’t bode well ahead of a free agent market that already in recent years has been upended by data-projection performance models. The subsequent flux in the game’s compensatory structure is the most contentious matter between owners and players with the CBA set to expire at the end of next season.
This season, Dan picks an issue, trend, news item or story from around MLB, and digs in on it with a guest. And he does it five times a week for about 15 minutes a day. Enough time to inform and entertain, but also get fans back to all the sports going on.
Ratcheting up the tensions is the ongoing impact of the pandemic, which had faded to the background after MLB survived the early-season outbreaks on the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals, both of which nearly killed the entire campaign. A stretch of no new positives among players that lasted for 58 consecutive days came to an end Tuesday when Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner tested positive and was removed from the game in the eighth inning and told to isolate – a jolt that should have reminded everyone of just how fragile this venture was, even within the so-called “bubble” created by MLB for the playoffs.
Unfathomably, Turner returned to the field to join the post-game celebrations, exchanging hugs with teammates and removing his mask for a team photo with the World Series trophy. Cameras also caught him kissing his wife, the entire scene a textbook example of what not to do in the COVID-19 world.
The immediate implications are damning enough.
MLB, in a release, said the Dodgers’ entire travelling party received nasal swab tests Tuesday night and that both they and the Rays were tested again Wednesday. For context, under American CDC regulations, anyone who had been within six feet of Turner for more than 15 minutes Tuesday should stay home for 14 days after exposure and keep six feet away from others.
That would have covered at least a handful of Turner’s Dodgers teammates who dogpiled the mound after Julio Urias caught Joey Wendle looking for the final out. As family members and significant others joined on the field, most if not all without masks, the pinnacle moment doubled as a potential super-spreader event.
Skeptical? Consider this situational risk chart shared recently on Twitter by Dr. Andrew Morris, medical director of the Antimicrobial Stewardship Program at Sinai Health System/University Health Network and an infectious diseases professor at the University of Toronto:
A situational risk chart shared recently on Twitter by Dr. Andrew Morris (@ASPphysician)
MLB slammed Turner in its statement, saying he “chose to disregard the agreed-upon joint protocols and the instructions he was given regarding the safety and protection of others.”
“While a desire to celebrate is understandable, Turner’s decision to leave isolation and enter the field was wrong and put everyone he came in contact with at risk,” it continued. “When MLB Security raised the matter of being on the field with Turner, he emphatically refused to comply. The Commissioner’s Office is beginning a full investigation into this matter and will consult with the Players Association within the parameters of the joint 2020 Operations Manual.”
That’s good, but it won’t undo the damage done, especially if the Dodgers end up with an outbreak. And while Turner’s actions are reflective of the stark split in American public opinion on how to live with COVID, sensible health authorities will justifiably be far more suspicious of MLB’s assurances of protocol compliance when it comes to potential 2021 exemptions.
For all the talk about avoiding the one selfish act that submarines a team’s season, Turner’s actions have the potential to undermine the fates of a much wider swath of the sport as the when and how of next season become a focal point.
Within that reckoning may very well come the latest bit of navel-gazing within the game about the role of data in on-field decision-making, triggered by the Snell decision.
Cash’s call reverberated through the industry, because the ace lefty had completely dominated through 5.1 innings, allowing only two hits, striking out nine and throwing only 73 pitches. Even after giving up a one-out single to Austin Barnes on a meh slider, there were no signs that he was falling off, but a third at-bat for Mookie Betts, Corey Seager and Turner loomed and this is where the conflict lies.
The third-time-through-the-order data pretty much always points to a pitching change. And Snell’s numbers this season do the same, whether you look at pitch counts or times through a lineup.
Chart courtesy of Baseball Reference.
From an analytical standpoint, the data is relatively conclusive, indicating that Nick Anderson (the reliever who replaced Snell) facing Betts for the first time was a better option than Snell facing Betts, who struck out in his previous at-bat on a healthy swing at a high fastball, a third time.
Cash would have known the probabilities beforehand and various scenarios would have been discussed between the Rays front office, analytics department and coaching staff. That preparation would have helped them build, in theory, a more objective plan that could be executed in-game without the emotional influences inherent to a contest with such high stakes.
In general terms, relying on objective data and collaboration between key thinkers will more often than not lead to a better decision than simply trusting gut and feel in the moment.
Only in this case, it didn’t.
Betts ripped a double off Anderson that left runners at second and third. A wild pitch plated Barnes to tie the game. A groundball to first scored Betts. The Dodgers had the lead, and, nine outs later, the title.
After the game, the Dodgers spoke of the boost it gave them to no longer be facing Snell, a narrative repeated by other analysts. But was it really a boost? Or did arguably the best player in the sport hit a double and then the Dodgers barely eked out a pair of runs?
The challenge for managers in Cash’s situation is that it’s hard to make an objective case for rejecting compelling data based on an eye-test. Before a game, teams can project how a pitcher’s stuff will play a third time through the order, but those are just baselines that have to be subjectively adjusted in-game. Without a measure more decisive, you’re left with a call on feel, which is something the modern front office seeks to avoid.
Now, a more nuanced view suggests the intellectualization of the sport underweights the feel element that is a product of years of experience. Cash has been there and done that enough to get a sense of when his guy is falling off, based on accumulated wisdom, and he’s earned the latitude to let his sense make the decision.
Given that, the real question is whether Cash was fully convicted in pulling Snell based on his assessment of both how the stuff was looking and what the data said, or if the numbers alone made the call.
Ben Nicholson-Smith is Sportsnet’s baseball editor. Arden Zwelling is a senior writer. Together, they bring you the most in-depth Blue Jays podcast in the league, covering off all the latest news with opinion and analysis, as well as interviews with other insiders and team members.
If it’s the former, then both he and the Rays should be able to live with it. If it’s the latter, then relying on data to make decisions is simply convention on the other end of spectrum, using numbers as a crutch, as opposed to feel.
The sweet spot, of course, is in combining the two realms, an inexact science that the Dodgers do better than most. Despite that, Dave Roberts has been skewered for decisions that led to his club’s previous post-season failures, but now that his team won the World Series, is he suddenly a better manager?
Sometimes the best decisions don’t work out. Sometimes the worst decisions do. In a game played by human beings and subject to randomness, no model will ever produce 100 per cent certainty.
That’s why there’s a case to be made for trusting your guy in the moment, a case to be made for giving your good players the rope to be great. Higher risk comes with higher rewards, and as the removal of Snell showed, playing it safe doesn’t always work out, either.
And so, the 2020 season ends much in the way the slow build to 2021 begins, with baseball still wrestling with the data movement over the game’s soul, under the relentless presence of a coronavirus a long way from disappearing.
LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — A top official of the Pakistan Cricket Board declined Friday to confirm media reports that India has decided against playing any games in host Pakistan during next year’s Champions Trophy.
“My view is if there’s any problems, they (India) should tell us in writing,” PCB chairman Mohsin Naqvi told reporters in Lahore. “I’ll share that with the media as well as with the government as soon as I get such a letter.”
Indian media reported Friday that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has communicated its concerns to all the Champions Trophy stakeholders, including the PCB, over the Feb. 19-March 9 tournament and would not play in arch-rival Pakistan.
The Times of India said that “Dubai is a strong candidate to host the fixtures involving the Men in Blue” for the 50-over tournament.
Such a solution would see Pakistan having to travel to a neutral venue to play India in a group match, with another potential meeting later in the tournament if both teams advanced from their group. The final is scheduled for March 9 in Pakistan with the specific venue not yet decided.
“Our stance is clear,” Naqvi said. “They need to give us in writing any objections they may have. Until now, no discussion of the hybrid model has happened, nor are we prepared to accept one.”
Political tensions have stopped bilateral cricket between the two nations since 2008 and they have competed in only multi-nation tournaments, including ICC World Cups.
“Cricket should be free of politics,” Naqvi said. “Any sport should not be entangled with politics. Our preparations for the Champions Trophy will continue unabated, and this will be a successful event.”
The PCB has already spent millions of dollars on the upgrade of stadiums in Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi which are due to host 15 Champions Trophy games. Naqvi hoped all the three stadiums will be ready over the next two months.
“Almost every country wants the Champions Trophy to be played here (in Pakistan),” Naqvi said. “I don’t think anyone should make this a political matter, and I don’t expect they will. I expect the tournament will be held at the home of the official hosts.”
Eight countries – Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan – are due to compete in the tournament, the schedule of which is yet to be announced by the International Cricket Council.
“Normally the ICC announces the schedule of any major tournament 100 days before the event, and I hope they will announce it very soon,” Naqvi said.
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Ottawa‘s Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe of New Zealand are through to the doubles final at the WTA Finals after a 7-6 (7), 6-1 victory over Nicole Melichar-Martinez of the United States and Australia’s Ellen Perez in semifinal action Friday.
Dabrowski and Routliffe won a hard-fought first set against serve when Routliffe’s quick reaction at the net to defend a Perez shot gave the duo set point, causing Perez to throw down her racket in frustration.
The second seeds then cruised through the second set, winning match point on serve when Melichar-Martinez couldn’t handle Routliffe’s shot.
The showdown was a rematch of last year’s semifinal, which Melichar-Martinez and Perez won in a super tiebreak.
Dabrowski and Routliffe will face the winner of a match between Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend, and Hao-Ching Chan and Veronika Kudermetova in the final on Saturday.
Dabrowski is aiming to become the first Canadian to win a WTA Finals title.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
Inter Milan winger Tajon Buchanan, recovered from a broken leg suffered in training at this summer’s Copa America, is back in Jesse Marsch’s Canada squad for the CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal against Suriname.
The 25-year-old from Brampton, Ont., underwent surgery July 3 to repair a fractured tibia in Texas.
Canada, ranked 35th in the world, plays No. 136 Suriname on Nov. 15 in Paramaribo. The second leg of the aggregate series is four days later at Toronto’s BMO Field.
There is also a return for veteran winger Junior Hoilett, who last played for Canada in June in a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s debut at the Canadian helm. The 34-year-old from Brampton, now with Scotland’s Hibernian, has 15 goals in 63 senior appearances for Canada.
Midfielder Ismael Kone, recovered from an ankle injury sustained on club duty with France’s Marseille, also returns. He missed Canada’s last three matches since the fourth-place Copa America loss to Uruguay in July.
But Canada will be without centre back Derek Cornelius, who exited Marseille’s win Sunday over Nantes on a stretcher after suffering an apparent rib injury.
The Canadian men will prepare for Suriname next week at a camp in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
“We are looking forward to getting the group together again with the mindset that there is a trophy on the line,” Marsch said in a statement. “We want to end 2024 the right way with two excellent performances against a competitive Suriname squad and continue building on our tremendous growth this past summer.”
The quarterfinal winners advance to the Nations League Finals at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., with the two semifinals scheduled for March 20 and the final and third-place playoff March 23, and qualify for the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Thirteen of the 23 players on the Canadian roster are 25 or younger, with 19-year-old defender Jamie Knight-Lebel, currently playing for England’s Crewe Alexandra on loan from Bristol City, the youngest.
Bayern Munich star Alphonso Davies captains the side with Stephen Eustaquio, Jonathan Osorio, Richie Laryea, Alistair Johnston and Kamal Miller adding veteran support.
Jonathan David, Cyle Larin and Theo Bair are joined in attack by Minnesota United’s Tani Oluwaseyi.
Niko Sigur, a 21-year-old midfielder with Croatia’s Hadjuk Split, continues in the squad after making his debut in the September friendly against Mexico.
Suriname made it to the Nations League quarterfinals by finishing second to Costa Rica in Group A of the Nations League, ahead of No. 104 Guatemala, No. 161 Guyana and unranked Martinique and Guadeloupe.
“A good team,” Osorio said of Suriname. “These games are always tricky and they’re not easy at all … Suriname is a (former) Dutch colony and they’ll have Dutch players playing at high levels.”
“They won’t be someone we overlook at all,” added the Toronto FC captain, who has 81 Canada caps to his credit.
Located on the northeast coast of South America between Guyana and French Guiana, Suriname was granted independence in 1975 by the Netherlands.
Canada has faced Suriname twice before, both in World Cup qualifying play, winning 4-0 in suburban Chicago in June 2021 and 2-1 in Mexico City in October 1977.
The Canadian men, along with Mexico, the United States and Panama, received a bye into the final eight of the CONCACAF Nations League.
Canada, No. 2 in the CONCACAF rankings, drew Suriname as the best-placed runner-up from League A play.
Canada lost to Jamaica in last year’s Nations League quarterfinal, ousted on the away-goals rule after the series ended in a 4-4 draw. The Canadians lost 2-0 to the U.S. in the final of the 2022-23 tournament and finished fifth in 2019-20.
Canada defeated Panama 2-1 last time out, in an Oct. 15 friendly in Toronto.
Goalkeepers Maxime Crepeau and Jonathan Sirois, defenders Joel Waterman, Laryea and Miller and Osorio took part in a pre-camp this week in Toronto for North America-based players.
Canada Roster
Goalkeepers: Maxime Crepeau, Portland Timbers (MLS); Jonathan Sirois, CF Montreal (MLS); Dayne St. Clair, Minnesota United FC (MLS).
Defenders: Moise Bombito, OGC Nice (France); Alphonso Davies, Bayern Munich (Germany); Richie Laryea, Toronto FC (MLS); Alistair Johnston, Celtic (Scotland); Jamie Knight-Lebel. Crewe Alexandra, on loan from Bristol City (England); Kamal Miller, Portland Timbers (MLS); Joel Waterman, CF Montreal (MLS).
Midfielders: Ali Ahmed. Vancouver Whitecaps (MLS); Tajon Buchanan, Inter Milan (Italy); Mathieu Choiniere, Grasshopper Zurich (Switzerland); Stephen Eustaquio, FC Porto (Portugal); Junior Hoilett, Hibernian FC (Scotland); Ismael Kone, Olympique Marseille (France); Jonathan Osorio, Toronto FC (MLS); Jacob Shaffelburg, Nashville SC (MLS); Niko Sigur, Hadjuk Split (Croatia).
Forwards: Theo Bair, AJ Auxerre (France); Jonathan David, LOSC Lille (France); Cyle Larin, RCD Mallorca (Spain); Tani Oluwaseyi, Minnesota United (MLS).
—
Follow @NeilMDavidson on X platform
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
