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Taiwan Economy Grows Fastest Since 2010 as TSMC Gives Boost – Financial Post

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(Bloomberg) — Taiwan’s economy grew at the fastest pace in 11 years in 2021, with growth set to get another bump this year from an unprecedented spending spree by its largest company.

Gross domestic product grew 6.3% last year, the government’s statistics office said in a statement Thursday, beating the 6% estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. That was the fastest rate of expansion since the 10.3% rebound in 2010 after the global financial crisis.  

The better-than-forecast full-year result was fueled by a 4.9% expansion in the fourth-quarter, itself ahead of the 3.9% median economist estimate. 

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Officials said strong exports were the main reason fourth-quarter data beat initial forecasts. 

“Robust external demand, our strong industrial position and the U.S-China technology dispute have meant some businesses with facilities overseas have moved production back to Taiwan,” Wu Pei-hsuan, a senior official at the Cabinet’s statistics department, said at a briefing after Thursday’s release. “With semiconductor plants adopting advanced processes and the roll-out of the government’s green-energy policy, this has increased investment across the board.”

The outlook for growth in 2022 remains bullish after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. revealed plans earlier this month to spend between $40 billion and $44 billion over the coming 12 months on new plants to help ease the shortage of semiconductors. That’s equivalent to around 5% of Taiwan’s $760 billion economy. And while a portion of TSMC’s capital expenditure will go overseas, the majority will be spent at home to expand factories making its highly sought-after semiconductors. 

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“Taiwan’s domestic investment revival story has been the key growth driver in 2021,” Angela Hsieh, an economist at Barclays Bank in Singapore, said via message Thursday. “TSMC certainly has been a key player in this, but other tech companies have also scaled up their investment plans aggressively in 2021. The positive spill-over effect has boosted Taiwan’s growth in 2021, and we think the virtuous cycle will continue into 2022.”

Monetary Policy

Taiwan’s investment-driven growth and surging fuel prices have led to inflation rising above the central bank’s 2% comfort zone since the second half of last year, triggering louder calls for policy makers to raise the benchmark rate from a record-low 1.125%.

One unidentified member of the central bank’s board said the authority should consider its first rate hike since 2011 at its next meeting if the pressure from inflation remains too high, according to minutes from the bank’s December meeting released Thursday.

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The bank’s next board meeting is scheduled for mid-March.

GDP growth was predominantly fueled by a stellar year for Taiwan’s exporters. Global demand for semiconductors and other electronic products surged, driven by rebounding consumer spending as most countries eased their coronavirus lockdowns through the year. 

Corporate revenues reflected this, with the combined annual sales of companies on the Taiwan Stock Exchange rising 15% to a record high NT$38.2 trillion ($1.4 trillion), according to a statement from the bourse. The benchmark Taiex index reached multiple record highs throughout the year and the Taiwan dollar strengthened to a new 24-year high. 

For 2022, the main risk for the economy is whether the government adopts strict new measures to stamp out a small-but-growing Covid-19 outbreak. Domestic consumption is forecast to have rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2021 after a partial lockdown in the middle of the year shut down entertainment venues and banned in-restaurant dining. 

“We factor in a moderate growth recovery in private consumption, but omicron remains a risk factor to monitor, especially as the Taiwan government still pledged to follow a zero-case policy, and the public are generally more risk averse,” Hsieh said. “So any cases detected will have a bigger impact on mobility and face-to-face services.”

The government, for now, sees a healthy rebound, projecting domestic consumption will rise 5.36% this year. 

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Bloomberg.com

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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