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‘Take advantage of this pullback,’ says Morgan Stanley executive who sees buying opportunities amid Russia-Ukraine tension – MarketWatch

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3 years ago

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Tension centered on Russia and Ukraine has opened up an opportunity for investors to put cash to work in the stock market, according to Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager for equities at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

“Take advantage of this pullback,” Slimmon said in a phone interview Tuesday. He said he expects the S&P 500 index
SPX,
+1.58%
can rally to around 5,100 this year, though stocks could “retest” lows seen in late January as hot inflation will continue to worry investors that the Federal Reserve may have to “tap the brakes in an aggressive way.” 

“I think as we get later into the year, the market is going to feel better,” Slimmon said. “I am in the camp that believes the Fed is not going to crush the economy and therefore the cyclical, value stocks should be biased in the portfolio over defensive and growth stocks.”

Some investors worry the Fed may have to move aggressively this year in raising interest rates to tame surging inflation, with the concern being that hiking rates too much too fast could hurt the economy. But Slimmon is betting the Fed won’t “kill” the economic recovery in the pandemic.

Interest rates going up is “good for financials,” he said. “The biggest overweight that we have is in financials.”

The S&P 500’s financials sector
SP500EW.40,
+1.76%
was up 1.5% in Tuesday afternoon trading, according to FactSet. The S&P 500 index was trading 1.4% higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.22%
was up 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
+2.53%
was showing a sharp 2% gain.

Stocks, which sold off Friday amid concerns that Russia was getting ready to invade Ukraine, were rising Tuesday as those fears eased. The Associated Press reported Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow is ready for talks with NATO on limits to missile deployments, a sign of easing tension that followed Russia announcing a pullback of some troops.

So far in 2022, the S&P 500 is down more than 6%, while the Dow is off around 4% and the Nasdaq Composite has fallen around 10%, FactSet data show, at last check. 

Historically, when the Fed raises rates, “as long as the yield curve doesn’t flatten to zero or invert,” value stocks outperform, said Slimmon. Investors are watching the yield curve closely as an inversion tends to signal a recession. At last check, the differential between the 2-year Treasury note
TMUBMUSD02Y,
1.555%
and the benchmark 10-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD10Y,
2.027%,
a common measure of the yield curve, or the spread between yields for shorter maturity and their longer-dated counterparts, stood at under 0.50 percentage points. That represents a historically narrow spread but widening somewhat from previous sessions.

In economic data released Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said that wholesale prices, which reflect what businesses pay for supplies, jumped 1% in January. The surge in the producer-price index, or PPI, exceeded investor expectations and was another sign of high inflation engulfing the U.S. economy.

See: Wholesale prices surge again as hot inflation sears the U.S. economy

While Slimmon described the latest reading of PPI as “ugly,” he said inflation should begin to ease later this year as the surge in demand for goods in the pandemic declines. He pointed to “anecdotal evidence” in Morgan Stanley’s talks with companies, saying their inventories are building.

Slimmon also said that year-over-year readings of inflation measured by the consumer-price index should begin to subside in the spring as the comparisons will no longer be made from low prints. That should help reduce some “anxiety” surrounding the jump in the cost of living in the pandemic, he said.

Meanwhile, earnings-per-share estimates for the S&P 500 index have risen for this year and 2023, said Slimmon. As a portfolio manager, “what I care about is revisions,” he said. “And revisions are going up.”

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Carry On Canadian Business. Carry On!

Published

7 hours ago

 on

October 22, 2024

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business to start in Canada

Human Resources Officers must be very busy these days what with the general turnover of employees in our retail and business sectors. It is hard enough to find skilled people let alone potential employees willing to be trained. Then after the training, a few weeks go by then they come to you and ask for a raise. You refuse as there simply is no excess money in the budget and away they fly to wherever they come from, trained but not willing to put in the time to achieve that wanted raise.

I have had potentials come in and we give them a test to see if they do indeed know how to weld, polish or work with wood. 2-10 we hire, and one of those is gone in a week or two. Ask that they want overtime, and their laughter leaving the building is loud and unsettling. Housing starts are doing well but way behind because those trades needed to finish a project simply don’t come to the site, with delay after delay. Some people’s attitudes are just too funny. A recent graduate from a Ivy League university came in for an interview. The position was mid-management potential, but when we told them a three month period was needed and then they would make the big bucks they disappeared as fast as they arrived.

Government agencies are really no help, sending us people unsuited or unwilling to carry out the jobs we offer. Handing money over to staffing firms whose referrals are weak and ineffectual. Perhaps with the Fall and Winter upon us, these folks will have to find work and stop playing on the golf course or cottaging away. Tried to hire new arrivals in Canada but it is truly difficult to find someone who has a real identity card and is approved to live and work here. Who do we hire? Several years ago my father’s firm was rocking and rolling with all sorts of work. It was a summer day when the immigration officers arrived and 30+ employees hit the bricks almost immediately. The investigation that followed had threats of fines thrown at us by the officials. Good thing we kept excellent records, photos and digital copies. We had to prove the illegal documents given to us were as good as the real McCoy.

Restauranteurs, builders, manufacturers, finishers, trades-based firms, and warehousing are all suspect in hiring illegals, yet that becomes secondary as Toronto increases its minimum wage again bringing our payroll up another $120,000. Survival in Canada’s financial and business sectors is questionable for many. Good luck Chuck!. at least your carbon tax refund check should be arriving soon.

Steven Kaszab
Bradford, Ontario
skaszab@yahoo.ca

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Imperial to cut prices in NWT community after low river prevented resupply by barges

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11 hours ago

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October 22, 2024

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NORMAN WELLS, N.W.T. – Imperial Oil says it will temporarily reduce its fuel prices in a Northwest Territories community that has seen costs skyrocket due to low water on the Mackenzie River forcing the cancellation of the summer barge resupply season.

Imperial says in a Facebook post it will cut the air transportation portion that’s included in its wholesale price in Norman Wells for diesel fuel, or heating oil, from $3.38 per litre to $1.69 per litre, starting Tuesday.

The air transportation increase, it further states, will be implemented over a longer period.

It says Imperial is closely monitoring how much fuel needs to be airlifted to the Norman Wells area to prevent runouts until the winter road season begins and supplies can be replenished.

Gasoline and heating fuel prices approached $5 a litre at the start of this month.

Norman Wells’ town council declared a local emergency on humanitarian grounds last week as some of its 700 residents said they were facing monthly fuel bills coming to more than $5,000.

“The wholesale price increase that Imperial has applied is strictly to cover the air transportation costs. There is no Imperial profit margin included on the wholesale price. Imperial does not set prices at the retail level,” Imperial’s statement on Monday said.

The statement further said Imperial is working closely with the Northwest Territories government on ways to help residents in the near term.

“Imperial Oil’s decision to lower the price of home heating fuel offers immediate relief to residents facing financial pressures. This step reflects a swift response by Imperial Oil to discussions with the GNWT and will help ease short-term financial burdens on residents,” Caroline Wawzonek, Deputy Premier and Minister of Finance and Infrastructure, said in a news release Monday.

Wawzonek also noted the Territories government has supported the community with implementation of a fund supporting businesses and communities impacted by barge cancellations. She said there have also been increases to the Senior Home Heating Subsidy in Norman Wells, and continued support for heating costs for eligible Income Assistance recipients.

Additionally, she said the government has donated $150,000 to the Norman Wells food bank.

In its declaration of a state of emergency, the town said the mayor and council recognized the recent hike in fuel prices has strained household budgets, raised transportation costs, and affected local businesses.

It added that for the next three months, water and sewer service fees will be waived for all residents and businesses.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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U.S. vote has Canadian business leaders worried about protectionist policies: KPMG

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11 hours ago

 on

October 22, 2024

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TORONTO – A new report says many Canadian business leaders are worried about economic uncertainties related to the looming U.S. election.

The survey by KPMG in Canada of 735 small- and medium-sized businesses says 87 per cent fear the Canadian economy could become “collateral damage” from American protectionist policies that lead to less favourable trade deals and increased tariffs

It says that due to those concerns, 85 per cent of business leaders in Canada polled are reviewing their business strategies to prepare for a change in leadership.

The concerns are primarily being felt by larger Canadian companies and sectors that are highly integrated with the U.S. economy, such as manufacturing, automotive, transportation and warehousing, energy and natural resources, as well as technology, media and telecommunications.

Shaira Nanji, a KPMG Law partner in its tax practice, says the prospect of further changes to economic and trade policies in the U.S. means some Canadian firms will need to look for ways to mitigate added costs and take advantage of potential trade relief provisions to remain competitive.

Both presidential candidates have campaigned on protectionist policies that could cause uncertainty for Canadian trade, and whoever takes the White House will be in charge during the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2026.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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