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Taking a Long-Term Investment View Is The Only Way to Navigate This Period – Traders Magazine

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By Mark Walker, Managing Partner at Tollymore Investment Partners

We can make no clear conclusions on how much further markets may decline. We do know that this panic will subside but don’t know if it will accelerate before it subsides. Anyone claiming ability to be able to predict the future in this field has self-awareness issues. While many public market commentators and investment bank strategists were calling for a market correction, no one stated a respiratory virus and a Saudi-Russia oil price war would be the cause. Corrections are caused by things that we have not anticipated. Throughout my more institutional investment experience I have seen time and time again predictions about the future which were consistently and often significantly wrong. There is clearly a lot of uncertainty today.  But there is always uncertainty. There was uncertainty in 2007.  We just didn’t know it until 2008/09 came along and the uncertainty was suddenly reflected in asset prices.

Mark Walker

We could come up with reasons to justify why markets have overreacted – 12 countries account for almost all COVID 19 cases but warmer weather kills almost all respiratory diseases. We have seen peaks in early markets already and significantly lower fatality rates than commonly understood, but panic spreads more quickly in a social media world. Predicting the evolution of its effects is well beyond the scope of humans’ abilities.

Future investment decisions should be made on data not emotions. The median market performance two years after a correction is 45%. This alone statistically suggests investing into corrections is how long-term investors perform better than macro traders and market speculators. It does not mean that if you invest today the market will not go down further and if the market declines further it does not mean investing today was the wrong thing to do – process vs. outcomes. It just means you didn’t pick the bottom. Trying to pick the bottom is a tiny return on investment game to play.

Investing is not easy, not cozy and at times very uncomfortable. If it doesn’t feel uncomfortable you are acting consensually, and you are destined for average investment results – in which case buy an index and at least save the fees. The only way to navigate these periods with sanity and resilience is to have a very long-term view. Those who understand compound interest earn it; those who don’t, pay it. Those who have the temperament, mindset and patience to invest countercyclically over the long term do the best.

Tollymore’s own balance sheet and aligned investment partners have allowed us to remain calm throughout this period. This is part of being a public equity manager and the cost of this volatility is far superior long-term results. So far this year we have been purchasing more shares of smaller, less liquid companies where there may have been non-fundamental selling pressures exaggerating stock price declines. Capacity constraints are an important safeguard against permanent capital erosion; their paucity is a function of widespread greed, something we hope to exploit.

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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