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Economy

TD, BMO upgraded on hopes Biden, vaccine will boost US economy – BNN

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CIBC World Markets is taking a rosier view of the two Canadian banks with the largest American footprint.

In a note to clients, CIBC Equity Analyst Paul Holden raised his ratings on Bank of Montreal and Toronto-Dominion Bank to the equivalent of a buy on expectations that Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential election and the prospects for a viable COVID-19 vaccine could accelerate a return to more normal economic growth internationally.

Holden also lowered his ratings on Royal Bank of Canada and National Bank to the equivalent of a hold.

Holden said that a more normalized economic growth trajectory could reduce the needs for the banks to set aside large amounts of cash to offset potentially sour loans. BMO and TD could then deploy that cash through share buybacks or potential acquisitions.

“We expect [the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions] will lift capital restrictions at some point in 2021 and perhaps earlier in the year with vaccine distribution,” Holden said. “We see this as a potential catalyst for the [banks] with dividend increases and share repurchases being likely. M&A is also possible for TD and BMO.”

Both OSFI and its American regulatory counterpart have put restrictions in place to prevent banks from increasing their dividends or launching large-scale share buybacks in an effort to ensure the banks have adequate liquidity to weather a protracted downturn and surge in sour loans.

While Holden changed his view on TD and BMO, he warned that it will take time for those growth themes to play out.

“Fiscal stimulus, monetary stimulus, strong house prices and a vaccine should encourage consumer spending and business investment. This is a theme for 2021, not so much for the coming quarter,” he said.

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Economy

Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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