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TD economist expects real estate market to lose steam in second half of 2023 – The Globe and Mail

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An unexpected surge in Canadian home sales and average prices in the first half of 2023 will likely lose steam in the second half of the year, predicts Rishi Sondhi, economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank.

Mr. Sondhi recently revised his national housing forecast for this year to reflect his view that sales will dip in the third and fourth quarters, reversing part of the surprising growth that was most pronounced in Ontario and British Columbia, while prices may still edge up but at a slower rate.

He said that during the market downturn of 2022 and early 2023, sales undershot economic fundamentals such as income and population growth. With the recent rebound, however, the gap has mostly been closed.

“It just shows the pent-up demand that was just waiting with bated breath,” Mr. Sondhi said in an interview. “People just pounced into the market.”

He said the Bank of Canada’s recent decision to increase its key interest rate by 25 basis points will likely put a chill on buyers who went rushing into the market after the bank paused rates earlier this year. Mr. Sondhi now expects a similar rate hike this month.

Mr. Sondhi added that the sharp rise in prices also worsened affordability, which could also hamper the market.

Mr. Sondhi updated his forecast before June sales numbers were in, but he said early signs were pointing to a soft month. Listings picked up slightly in June, but inventory remains low compared to historical levels, he adds.

“We’re still not seeing this surge in supply.”

While tight supply may nudge the average national price higher in the third quarter, he predicts prices to drop slightly in the fourth. He expects sales to be about 5-per-cent lower in the fourth quarter than the second.

Mr. Sondhi still expects to see modest growth in sales and the average price across the country in 2024, though he has trimmed his forecast to reflect a cooler pace of quarterly increases.

Real estate brokers say they are also seeing things slow down after a rush of sales in the spring.

Elise Kalles, broker at Harvey Kalles Real Estate Ltd., notes that the market moves in cycles, but her office is still seeing competition in some pockets. Ms. Kalles said one house listed with the firm recently drew 18 offers and sold for $1-million above the asking price of about $3.2-million.

Paul Maranger, broker at Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, has seen an increase in listings in recent weeks, but he said overall supply is still thin.

Mr., Maranger said that at this time of year, parents are busy with the end of their kids’ school year, and some homeowners spend much of the summer at the cottage. He said he expects normal sales volume for July and August, which typically move at a slower pace than the spring rush.

“I would say we are in light seller’s market territory,” he said, though he added that buyers are cautious if they believe sellers are asking too much.

Mr. Maranger says move-up buyers were hesitant last year in the upper tiers because many are self-employed or business owners. He said prospective buyers who were concerned about the health of the economy and the impact on their business put sales on hold.

“I think you can only hold back in Toronto for a certain period of time. Then you have to move forward.”

After the more relaxed summer market, Mr. Maranger expects to see the usual increase in listings after Labour Day. He predicts some homeowners who have been struggling with higher interest rates and inflation may decide to sell, but he’s not expecting a flood of supply.

“We’ll see anxiety sales,” he said. “But we’re not going to see panicked sales with silly low prices.”

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‘The Bidding War’ taps into Toronto’s real estate anxiety

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‘The Bidding War’ is a play skewering Toronto’s real estate market via a story about a one-day bidding war over the city’s last affordable home. The cast and crew say it exposes how the housing crisis brings out “the worst in people.” (Nov. 12, 2024)

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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