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Best And Worst Investments Of 2023: Bitcoin And Tech Stocks Surge As Oil Tumbles

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Fervor over the potential end to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes has fueled a stunning rally among riskier assets that fell to dismal lows last year, helping bitcoin and tech giants emerge as market leaders anew—even as some experts worry the trend may not last.

Key Facts

After crashing more than 60% last year, the price of bitcoin has skyrocketed 83% in 2023—making it the best-performing asset class among more than two dozen tracked by analysts at Goldman Sachs.

Buzz around institutional giant BlackRock applying for a bitcoin exchange-traded fund has helped the world’s largest cryptocurrency mint its stunning rally, but the risk asset has also benefited from inflation falling to the lowest levels since early 2021, giving investors hope the Fed would pause interest rate hikes (as it did) and potentially cut rates later this year to avoid a recession.

The potential for lower rates has similarly fueled a flurry of growth stocks, with the information technology sector, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 1000 Growth Index (all of which count Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia among their largest components) up 40%, 38% and 27%, respectively.

Even adjusted for risk using the Sharpe Ratio, which divides an investment’s return by a measure of volatility, the information technology sector, Nasdaq 100, Russell 1000 Growth Index and bitcoin are still top asset classes—far outperforming the S&P 500, which is up 14% this year after falling nearly 20% in 2022.

On the flipside, crude oil and energy stocks—which skyrocketed as the economy roared back during the pandemic—headline the year’s worst-performing assets, down 12% and 9%, respectively, as oil producers warn global economic concerns could drag on in the second half of the year and potentially hurt demand.

Investor sentiment has reached its highest level in over two years, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson pointed out in a recent note, describing the vast market differences—from last year’s steep declines to the first half’s stunning rally—as a transition from “fear to greed.”

Top Performing Assets In 2023 So Far

  1. Bitcoin, up 80%
  2. Information Technology, up 40%
  3. Nasdaq 100, up 38%
  4. Communication Services, up 36%
  5. Consumer Discretionary, up 31%
  6. Russell 1000 Growth, up 27%

Worst Performing Assets In 2023 So Far

  1. Crude Oil, down 12%
  2. Energy, down 9%
  3. Utilities, down 5%
  4. Financials, down 3%
  5. Health Care, down 2%
  6. Real Estate, flat

Key Background

Markets crashed last year as the prospect of higher interest rates fueled concerns the economy would falter—but the recession many experts predicted has yet to materialize. In fact, the latest batch of corporate earnings showed companies have been vastly resilient despite economic headwinds—and many have exceeded expectations. Average revenues rose 4% in the first quarter, compared with forecasts calling for a less than 2% growth. Nevertheless, there are signs of weakness. Fading fiscal support, less liquidity, and the impact of inflation falling faster than expected have strategists at Morgan Stanley heeding caution on the latest market rally.

What To Watch For

One big cautious signal, the median stock in the S&P is up just 3% this year—significantly lower than the overall return, as tech giants like Apple and Microsoft head up most of the gains. “The most troubling divergence remains in the strongest index, the Nasdaq,” says Wilson, noting breadth, as measured by the percentage of stocks outperforming the broader index—is at one of its most extreme points in history. “If this bear market rally is really a new bull market, this will need to change.”

 

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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