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Thai economy shrinks 12 per cent in 2Q, worst decline in 22 years – CTV News

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BANGKOK —
Thailand’s economy contracted at a 12.2 per cent annual rate in the April-June quarter, its sharpest downturn since the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s.

The data reflect a deterioration of business activity, with the country virtually closed to international travel due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The economy shrank 2 per cent in the first quarter of the year, said the report Monday by the National Economic and Social Development Council.

It showed investment, consumer spending and trade all contracted. Farm output, also hurt by a drought, fell 3 per cent while manufacturing declined 14.4 per cent.

Thailand’s leaders are meanwhile grappling with a wave of student unrest.

Anti-government protesters gathered in large numbers in Thailand’s capital on Sunday for a rally that suggested their movement’s strength may extend beyond the college campuses where it had blossomed.

The protesters are demanding that the government hold new elections, amend the constitution and end intimidation of critics of the government.

While those grievances do not mention the economy, the demonstrations underscore public discontent with how the military-dominated government has handled the pandemic crisis, leaving many people struggling to feed themselves.

The government imposed strict controls on activity at the height of the coronavirus outbreak in the spring, including overnight curfews and bans on sales of alcohol. That appears to have kept infections under control: confirmed cases totalled 3,377 as of Monday, according to a tally kept by Johns Hopkins University. There have been 58 deaths.

But the containment has come at a steep cost: the loss of millions of jobs and livelihoods for the many Thai’s who depend on foreign tourism.

Exports plunged 28 per cent from a year earlier, while service exports, which include international travel, cratered by nearly 38 per cent.

“The worst of the economic slump brought on by COVID-19 might be over. But with exports and tourism still missing in action, the negative GDP growth trend is here to stay for the rest of the year, and perhaps well into 2021,” ING Economics said in a commentary.

ING economist Prakash Sakpal forecast a 6.6 per cent annual contraction for the whole year, with the GDP shrinking 7.6 per cent in the current quarter and 4.8 per cent in the last quarter of the year.

On a seasonally adjusted, quarterly basis, the Thai economy contracted 9.7 per cent in April-June from the previous quarter, when it shrank 2.5 per cent. It also logged a contraction in the last quarter of 2019, minus 0.3 per cent, and thus has been in recession this year.

The economy is faring about as poorly as those of Thailand’s neighbours. Last week, Malaysia reported a 13.2 per cent contraction in its economy in the last quarter. Singapore’s economy shrank 13.2 per cent and the Philippines’ 16.5 per cent.

For most, it has been the worst downturn since the Asian financial crisis struck with the collapse of the Thai baht in July 1997.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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