As a busy 2019 in the oil and gas industry ends, analysts are busy issuing predictions about next year and what they would mean for oil markets and prices.
This year saw a mix of some of the more predictable events—such as OPEC and Russia extending their cooperation pact, twice—and a ‘black swan’ such as the September attacks on Saudi oil facilities which cut off 5 percent of daily global oil supply for weeks.
As black swans are, by definition, unpredictable, analysts focus on predicting the ‘knowns’ in the market for 2020 as they see them at the end of 2019.
There are many factors to watch in oil markets next year, both in the U.S. and globally.
For the sake of simplicity, here are 10 of the most important predictions and factors to watch in the oil and gas industry in the United States and worldwide.
Independent energy analyst David Blackmon has summed up some predictions, concerning mostly the U.S., for Forbes.
And these are:
1) U.S. shale production will continue to grow
U.S. shale growth is slowing down, but all analysts and organizations still expect oil supply from the United States to continue to rise in 2020. Growth may be slower, due to reduced capex from drillers, but U.S. will still be the main contributor to non-OPEC supply growth next year.
2) Rig count will remain stable
Despite the fact that the U.S. oil and rig count declined by more than 250 units this year to December 20 compared to the same time last year, the number of active oil rigs last week saw an increase of 18 rigs—the first double-digit growth since the beginning of April, according to Baker Hughes data. Related: Why Hasn’t Hydrogen Gone Mainstream?
3) U.S. oil and LNG exports will continue to rise
Exports of U.S. oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to grow with the increase in infrastructure capacity in 2020.
The United States exported more crude oil and petroleum products than it imported in September 2019—the first month in which America was a net petroleum exporter since monthly records began in 1973, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said earlier this month.
Total U.S. crude oil and petroleum net exports are expected to average 570,000 bpd in 2020 compared with average net imports of 490,000 bpd in 2019, according to EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
4) Oil and gas prices will remain range-bound in 2020
Rising production from non-OPEC nations not part of the OPEC+ deal, driven by the U.S., Brazil, and Norway, is expected to keep a lid on oil prices, while OPEC+ cuts and an expected pick-up in global economic and oil demand growth will keep a floor under prices.
5) Sudden supply outages will have smaller impact on oil prices
Due to the growing non-OPEC supply, unexpected and short-lived outages are likely to have a smaller impact on oil prices than they would have on markets five or ten years ago, analyst Blackmon says.
Case in point—the mid-September attacks on critical Saudi infrastructure sent oil prices soaring—with WTI Crude touching a five-month high of $62.90 a barrel—but just for one day, as slowing demand growth and a protracted trade war weighed on prices.
6) Bankruptcies in the U.S. shale patch are set to grow
The number of bankruptcies and companies seeking protection from creditors is expected to rise in 2020, continuing the trend from 2019.
Haynes and Boone estimated at end-September that the U.S. oil and gas industry had 33 filings year to date in September, more than the number of filings in each of 2017 and 2018, at 24 and 28 filings, respectively.
With reduced capital availability in equity and debt markets, more of the smaller companies could struggle through the next year.
7) U.S. oil and gas mergers & acquisitions are poised to rise
A growing number of distressed U.S. oil and gas firms and few funding options could mean that the ‘smaller guys’ could be acquired by bigger shale players or the smaller guys could team up to scale operations and cut costs.
Signs of consolidation in U.S. shale have already started to emerge, and the wave is expected to continue in 2020. Related: Bullish Sentiment Remains Despite Oil Price Dip
Shareholders of Callon Petroleum and Carrizo Oil & Gas approved an all-stock merger last week.
Two months ago, Parsley Energy and Jagged Peak Energy announced that Parsley would buy Jagged Peak in an all-stock transaction valued at US$2.27 billion, including Jagged Peak’s debt.
“The inevitable consolidation in the Permian has started and Jagged Peak made a decisive move to team up with the right partner,” said S. Wil VanLoh, Jr., a Jagged Peak director and the founder and CEO of Jagged Peak’s controlling shareholder, Quantum Energy Partners.
In its Q3 2019 Oil & Gas deals insights, PwC said:
“In the quarters ahead, we expect to see more companies merging to create scale, companies continuing to focus on generating positive cash flows and shareholder value, while struggling companies will become more amenable to being acquired or seeking restructuring through bankruptcy.”
Internationally, the key factors to watch in oil markets will be:
8) How oil demand growth will fare as the U.S.-China trade dispute de-escalates
Oil prices hit a three-month high on December 13 amid growing optimism of a phase-one trade deal. In the days following the announcement that a phase-one deal had been reached, China removed six chemicals and oil derivatives from its list of tariffed U.S. imports.
9) How OPEC+ cooperation will proceed after March 2020
Another key factor to watch is what OPEC and its Russia-led non-OPEC partners will do after March 2020, when the current agreement for deeper cuts expires. The next move by the cartel and its allies will largely depend on how oil demand growth will fare in the typically low-demand growth season in Q1. The move will also depend on how much oil OPEC and friends will have managed to withhold from the market compared to plans—that is, whether all members will have fallen in line and stopped cheating.
10) Sudden supply outages in restive regions
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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Apple worker says she was fired after leading movement against harassment
An Apple employee who led fellow workers in publicly sharing instances of what they called harassment and discrimination at the company said on Thursday that she had been fired.
Janneke Parrish, an Apple program manager, said the iPhone maker informed her on Thursday that she had been terminated for deleting material on company equipment while she was under investigation over the leaking of a company town hall to media. She told Reuters she denies leaking.
Parrish said she deleted apps that contained details of her finances and other personal information before handing her devices in to Apple as part of the probe.
Parrish said she believes she was fired for her activism in the workplace.
“To me, this seems clearly retaliatory for the fact that I was speaking out about abuses that have happened at my employer, pay equity and, generally, about our workplace conditions,” she said.
Apple said Friday it does not discuss specific employee matters.
Apple has recently experienced other examples of employee unrest. Last month, two Apple employees told Reuters they had filed charges https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-national-labor-relations-board-investigating-two-complaints-apple-workers-2021-09-02 against the company with the National Labor Relations Board. The workers accused Apple of retaliation and halting discussion of pay among employees, among other allegations.
Apple has said that it is “deeply committed to creating and maintaining a positive and inclusive workplace” and that it takes “all concerns” from employees seriously.
U.S. law protects the right of employees to openly discuss certain topics, including working conditions, discrimination and equal pay.
Over the summer, current and former Apple employees began detailing on social media what they said were experiences of harassment and discrimination. Parrish and some colleagues began publishing the stories on social media and a publishing platform in a weekly digest titled ‘#AppleToo.’
Parrish said she was careful to respect company rules and never shared information that she believed to be confidential. She said she continued to publish the ‘#AppleToo’ digest after coming under investigation at the end of September.
“If anything, it’s made the importance of that work clearer than ever, when Apple’s response to criticism is to start internal investigations into those that it wants to see gone,” she said. “It’s easier for them to terminate people than it is for them to actually listen.”
(Reporting by Julia Love; editing by Peter Henderson and Rosalba O’Brien)
With average prices up another 14%, Swiss bank UBS warns of housing bubbles in Canada – CBC.ca
Average house prices rose 14 per cent in the past year, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Friday, adding to concerns that Canada’s most expensive real estate markets are dangerously overvalued.
The group that represents realtors across the country says the average price of a Canadian home sold on its MLS system was $686,650, almost 14 per cent higher than it was in the same month a year ago.
Canada’s inflation rate hit four per cent in August, the fastest increase in the cost of living in almost 20 years. The new data on house prices Friday means that house prices are going up at more than three times that record pace.
CREA says the average price can be misleading, since it is heavily skewed by sales in the most expensive markets of Toronto and Vancouver. It trumpets another number, known as the MLS House Price Index (HPI), as a more accurate gauge of the overall market, because it strips out some of the volatility.
But the HPI is rising by even more than the average is right now — up 21.5 per cent in the past 12 months. In the Greater Toronto area, the average price of a home that sold was $1,136,280 in September, up 18 per cent in a year, according to the local real estate board. In Vancouver, the average is 1,186,100 — up by more than 13 per cent in the past year.
“There is still a lot of demand chasing an increasingly scarce number of listings, so this market remains very challenging,” CREA chair Cliff Stevenson said.
The pandemic has had an unexpected impact on house prices in that instead of causing people to be more conservative because of the economic uncertainty, buyers have been eager to shell out for more space.
Canada’s central bank slashed its benchmark rate to help stimulate the economy through the pandemic, and when lenders passed those rates on to consumers in the form of record low mortgage rates that had the effect of pouring gasoline on the fire of housing demand, making it more affordable to borrow more and more money to buy a home.
UBS warns of bubble
The fresh numbers on prices come as a major Swiss bank was already warning that Toronto and Vancouver are home to two of the worst housing bubbles in the entire world.
In an annual ranking, UBS examines the housing markets in 24 major world cities in Europe, North America and Asia to assess them based on how expensive housing is compared to local income levels and other factors.
It then puts all the cities into one of five categories:
- Depressed housing market (a score of -1.5 or lower).
- Undervalued (-0.5 to -1.5).
- Fairly valued (-0.5 to +0.5).
- Overvalued (+0.5 to +1.5).
- Bubble (1.5 and up).
Six cities were deemed to have housing bubbles. Two of them are in Canada.
Toronto got a score of 2.02. That was higher than every other city except Frankfurt, Germany, which scored a 2.16.
Vancouver scored a 1.66, just behind Hong Kong (1.90), Munich (1.84) and Zurich (1.83).
The bank says house prices in Toronto have effectively doubled in the past decade. Government interventions through things like foreign buyers taxes and rent controls caused the market to take a breather in 2018 and 2019, but things have only accelerated since, the bank said.
“Real prices increased by almost eight per cent from mid-2020 to mid-2021,” the bank said.
The bank says price gains are being fuelled by record-low mortgage rates, which are not expected to last much longer once the Bank of Canada inevitably has to raise its rate.
That “could lead to an abrupt end to the current housing frenzy,” the bank said.
Isabel Serrano, a prospective homebuyer in Toronto, is well aware of how frothy things have gotten in the city. She and her husband have been renting for the past 15 years, and are finally ready to buy. But despite having more than $200,000 a year in combined income, the pair can’t find anything in their price range — and they keep getting outbid when they try.
In an interview with CBC News, she said she has looked at between 40 or 50 houses in the past few months, and placed offers on four. In some cases, the house sold for six figures more than the asking price.
“I never thought it was going to be this hard. I really didn’t,” she said. “It blows my mind that there are no homes to buy. It blows my mind that we cannot find a house to buy for $800,000.”
WATCH | Isabel Serrano says house prices are out of reach for people like her
‘A fast rebound’
Things don’t look much better in Vancouver. Taxes on vacant homes and foreign buyers in 2016 cooled what was then a red-hot market, as prices rose by more than 20 per cent that year. Those moves seemed to relieve some of the pressure, as prices declined by 10 per cent between 2018 and 2019.
“Since then, however, lower prices, falling mortgage rates and looser stress test rules have enticed households to buy properties again, leading to a fast rebound,” UBS said. “From mid-2020 to mid-2021, property prices increased by 11 per cent, offsetting past losses.”
High prices aren’t just bad for would-be buyers like Serrano, who plan to live in them — they don’t augur well for investors hoping to pay them off by renting them out either.
According to UBS, anyone buying an investment property with the intent to rent it out would need to rent it for 31 years in Vancouver to cover the price of buying it. In Toronto, it would take 28 years. In cities like Miami and Dubai, it’s half that.
It’s a big reason why the bank suspects both Toronto and Vancouver are in bubble territory, which UBS defines as “a substantial and sustained mispricing of an asset, the existence of which cannot be proved unless it bursts.”
UBS has no qualms calling what’s happening in Canada’s two biggest housing markets a bubble, and they aren’t the only ones.
Prof. George Fallis, who teaches economics at York University in Toronto, says the city’s housing market shows all the signs of being detached from fundamentals.
Supply and demand
“A bubble exists if you can’t explain price increases by using the normal variables we look at,” he said in an interview. “Whenever you see that kind of thing, that should be a warning light.”
Fallis says he worries some people buying today are doing so based solely on the expectation that gains in the future will be the same as those of the past, and it’s always dangerous when that happens.
“Economists are not psychologists and the psychology of frothy expectations is poorly understood. But it’s clear that it’s [caused by] something arising which sort of shocks you,” he said. The most likely trigger could be a rapid rise in interest rates, something that experts have already warned is inevitable.
“You only know a bubble exists when it bursts,” Fallis said. “It just keeps going and going and going until it doesn’t.”
Two B.C. women file constitutional challenge of vaccine card – CHEK
VANCOUVER — Two British Columbia women who say doctors advised them against getting COVID-19 vaccines have filed a constitutional challenge of the province’s vaccine passport.
A petition filed in B.C. Supreme Court says 39-year-old Sarah Webb, who lives in Alberta and B.C., developed an adverse reaction from her first dose of a vaccine in May and ended up in the emergency department of a Calgary hospital six days later.
The court document says Webb’s symptoms included fatigue, heart arrhythmias, severe pain and a rash on her arm.
It says she received antibiotics but developed further complications the next day and went to another hospital, where a doctor told her she should not get a second vaccine shot.
The petition filed against the attorney general and the Ministry of Health says Leigh Anne Eliason of Maple Ridge, B.C., was told by her doctor that she should not get a COVID-19 vaccine because of the risk of side effects due to her medical history.
Neither the Attorney General’s Ministry nor the Health Ministry could immediately provide a response to the court challenge.
The petition says both women’s physicians have written exemption letters citing their physical disabilities.
However, the petition says each of the doctors raised concerns that neither the government nor any provincial medical associations had provided guidelines on how to write such a letter or what information should be included.
“There is no evidence to suggest that the attorney general of British Columbia or the (Health Ministry) have considered individuals like the petitioners in making the vaccine card announcement or in crafting the vaccine card orders,” says the petition, which was filed on Sept. 23.
B.C. residents without proof of vaccination are prohibited from certain activities like dining in restaurants, entering movie theatres and gyms. That deprives the petitioners of their charter rights, the petition says.
Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry has said anyone who chooses not to be vaccinated has options including ordering takeout from restaurants and watching movies and sports at home because her order is aimed at reducing transmission of the virus from anyone who may be infected.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 15, 2021.
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