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The 2021 elections will shape politics for years – Hindustan Times

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Over the past year, the federal structure has come under strain. A BJP win in Bengal and presence in government in Tamil Nadu will strengthen the Centre’s hand — while a TMC win in Bengal and a DMK win in Tamil Nadu will strengthen the voice of states (SANTOSH KUMAR/HTPHOTO)

The 2021 elections will shape politics for years

The polls will shape the trajectory of national politics, determine the balance of power between the Centre and states, and reveal the current strength of national and regional forces
UPDATED ON FEB 27, 2021 08:56 PM IST

Given that polls are held every year in some part of India, the upcoming polls in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry can be seen as yet another component of India’s dynamic democratic cycle.

But these elections, arguably, have much greater significance than usual. The polls are happening in the backdrop of a turbulent time in national politics where structural changes are underway; the poll results will determine the trajectory of India’s national and top regional parties; they will, therefore, also have an impact on the nature of the federal structure that underpins the constitutional order in India; and each state has gone through a challenging time, in terms of both politics and governance, and the outcome will reflect how voters perceive the performance of the state governments in dealing with these challenges.

To begin with, while there is now overwhelming evidence that state elections are fought and won on state-specific leadership and issues, they cannot be divorced from the larger national backdrop. There are three specific national-level changes, which will have an impact on state polls.

The first is, of course, Covid-19. The pandemic disrupted lives and livelihoods, changed the nature of political communication, and highlighted issues which, so far, had not been at the heart of the electoral discourse — including health care. The elections will show if Covid-19 has forced a change in the way parties reach out to voters and the way in which voters decide on their choices, or whether the pandemic has, actually, not changed older political patterns. The second is the direction of economic reforms the government has undertaken. While this remains at a preliminary stage — the Centre’s moves on privatisation, for instance, have not been operationalised yet — there is now a clear sign that the government will push through liberal economic measures, which cater to the market and private sector. It is too early to link any electoral outcome to this new direction, but the farm laws and the protests around it — which were geographically concentrated around north India, but had national reverberations — provide an early indication of the political passions around reforms.

And finally, in three of the five states going to polls — Assam, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu — domestic politics has a strong external dimension. The debate around the immigrants, the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens brings Bangladesh into India’s domestic discourse, while the debate around Tamil rights in Sri Lanka, has an impact in Tamil Nadu. The outcome of the polls will have an impact on all these dimensions — how India’s political structures will adapt to a post-Covid-19 world; how India’s economic reform trajectory will proceed; and how India will navigate ties with the neighbourhood when the lines between the external and internal get blurred.

These polls also matter because they will shape the political future of a range of parties. For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the ideal scenario is retaining power in Guwahati, getting to the seat of power in Kolkata (the big prize), having an ally govern in Chennai, squeezing through as a part of a ruling coalition in Puducherry, and expanding its presence in the assembly in Thiruvananthapuram. If this happens, expect a more confident Centre, which will pursue its political and ideological agenda with renewed vigour; and even if the BJP succeeds in just winning the east while making limited forays into the south, it will see this as a political vote of confidence.

For the Congress, the ideal scenario is winning back Assam from the BJP on the plank of its opposition to CAA, ensuring that the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance returns to power in Tamil Nadu, where the Congress has a respectable junior status in government, and proving a political point in Puducherry where its government was just ousted. In Bengal, the Congress wants to expand its presence, but while keeping the BJP out of power. But there is a paradox here — success for the Congress-Left Front will split the anti-BJP vote. So there is a clash between its local politics and its national ambition of weakening the BJP. But the most important state for the party is Kerala. For two years, Rahul Gandhi has claimed he is a mere Member of Parliament from Wayanad, and while recognising that polls will be fought on a range of local factors, Kerala will be seen as Gandhi’s test within the Congress.

For the regional parties, these elections hold huge significance. All eyes are on the Trinamool Congress (TMC) — and whether, after being in power for a decade and facing an aggressive BJP, which confounded pundits by winning 18 of the 42 seats in the state in 2019, Mamata Banerjee can retain power. A victory for her, in the face of the BJP onslaught, will boost the confidence of other smaller regional forces — and she can be expected to renew efforts to forge an anti-BJP national coalition.

For the DMK, out of power for 10 years in the state, and now without the guardianship of M Karunanidhi, the elections will determine the political future of MK Stalin and, determine, more significantly, whether the BJP can be kept out as a direct or indirect player in the state where there exists deep suspicion of its cultural and linguistic politics. For the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, in the absence of J Jayalalithaa and the challenge from Sasikala, who is staking claim to the political legacy of the former CM, all hopes are riding on the incumbent CM’s governance record and support from the Centre. For the Left, Kerala remains the only state where it exercises power — and whether it can beat Kerala’s electoral dynamic of voting in alternate parties to power is the big test. And then there are smaller forces in each state — including Muslim parties in Kerala, Assam and West Bengal — who aim to expand their presence, although, in some ways, their presence enables the BJP to engage in the politics of polarisation.

The election outcome will then, have an impact on the federal structure. Over the past year in particular, the federal structure has come under strain. Non-BJP forces believe that a strong Centre, run by a hegemonic force, is undermining the constitutional structure by taking over state subjects and legislating on them, altering the financial structures which would enable states to perform effectively, and accumulating power while leaving responsibilities in the hands of states. The Centre believes that these grievances are a result of political opposition, and that whenever there has been a constructive suggestion by states, it has been taken on board. It is in this backdrop that a BJP win in Bengal and presence in government, directly or indirectly, in Tamil Nadu will strengthen the Centre’s hand — while a TMC win in Bengal and a DMK win in Tamil Nadu will strengthen the voice of states.

In the final analysis though, the elections will reflect voter satisfaction — or dissatisfaction — with their respective state governments at a time of unprecedented suffering due to the pandemic and associated economic costs. Sarbananda Sonowal, Mamata Banerjee, EK Palaniswami, Pinarayi Vijayan and V Narayanasamy (who has now resigned) are on test. They will know how voters marked them on May 2.

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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