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The best investment for the next 20 years: Morning Brief

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At this week’s Yahoo Finance Invest conference, I had the chance to interview two different authors — Mark Spitznagel and Morgan Housel.

Spitznagel is the founder of Universa Investments and the author of the books “Safe Haven” and “The Dao of Capital.” Housel published “The Psychology of Money” in 2020 and his latest book, “Same As Ever,” was released on Tuesday.

Both of these guests brought to the audience one of the most common messages an investor is likely to hear: stocks for the long run.

“We could all agree in this room that over the next 20 years, I’m the most bearish guy you’re ever going to meet,” Spitznagel said. “But we could all agree in this room that in the next 20 years, probably, the S&P is the best [place] to be. And if you could make one trade right now it’s probably buy the S&P, right, despite what’s going on and how expensive it is today.”

“[If] you are a student of economic history, you should be an optimist on the future,” Housel said. “People’s ability to solve problems and become more productive is incredible.”

Spitznagel’s firm is focused on what his books cover — safe-haven investing aimed at preserving capital while offering explosive returns during turbulent market conditions. Housel’s writing helps investors balance the pressures today with best-laid plans for tomorrow.

And so it comes as little surprise that both Spitznagel’s and Housel’s messages came with the same caveat — all that matters is that you survive.

“Mitigating risk really isn’t about where we think the world is going to be,” Spitznagel said. “Mitigating risk is about what that path is going to look like, and the opportunities that you have along that path, right? The dry powder that you create.”

“If your definition of optimism is that everything’s going to be great, that’s a problem, that’s complacency,” Housel said. “So I think reasonable optimism is, the short term is a constant chain of surprises and setbacks and bear markets and recessions. But if you can survive and endure those, which, that’s the big if, then for those who can stick around the rewards are incredible.”

Mark Spitznagel, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Universa Investments, speaks during the Skybridge Capital SALT New York 2021 conference in New York City, U.S., September 15, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of Universa Investments, speaks during the Skybridge Capital SALT New York 2021 conference in New York City, Sept. 15, 2021. (Brendan McDermid/REUTERS) (Brendan McDermid / reuters)

As TKer’s Sam Ro flagged on Tuesday, work from Bank of America out this week showed that $1 invested in US large cap stocks 200 years ago is worth $16 million today. Stocks, in other words, usually go up.

Over those two centuries, we’ve seen a civil war on US soil, two world wars, multiple financial crises, several pandemics, and hundreds of events that would spook even the most reasonably optimistic long-term investor.

Coming off a bruising 2022 for markets, we began the year by flagging work from Nick Colas at DataTrek, which found that no 20-year rolling period since World War II has seen stocks offer investors a negative return.

“History shows that 20 years of continuous investment is the bare minimum to be assured of a positive real return for the S&P 500,” Colas wrote. “One can do very well over a shorter period if all the stars are aligned, of course. But … two decades is the ‘right’ long term timeframe to use in a mental model of how long it can take for US equities to generate value for investors.”

Over any 20-year rolling period since 1947, U.S. stocks have been higher. Though not all historical periods are created equal. Not by a long shot. (Source: DataTrek Research)Over any 20-year rolling period since 1947, U.S. stocks have been higher. Though not all historical periods are created equal. Not by a long shot. (Source: DataTrek Research)
Over any 20-year rolling period since 1947, U.S. stocks have been higher. Though not all historical periods are created equal. Not by a long shot. (Source: DataTrek Research)

None of which means investors should ignore how things change over those two decades.

Nor should timespans 10 times longer be ignored, either.

But reaping the benefits of the S&P 500 over the next 20 years does require all 20 of those years. And that will likely require an investor to be both a pessimist and an optimist — but never just one or the other.

“One other way to frame it is save like a pessimist, and invest like an optimist,” Housel said. “Save with the idea that all of economic history is just a constant chain of surprises and setbacks. But if you can endure that, then it’s great. So that requires optimism and pessimism to coexist in the same mind, which is very difficult for most people to do. For most people, you’re either a full-blown optimist or a full-blown pessimist. And both of those two get into trouble.”

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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