IT’S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY — By now, the basic parameters of the 2024 race for the White House have been set.
Both major candidates are well known to voters, who in general don’t like them very much. Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have been accused by their opponents of being unable to string the simplest of sentences together. Voters remain the most concerned about Biden’s age and Trump’s temperament.
But even though Americans are convinced they know these two candidates like the back of their hand, over 70 percent of voters say that they plan to tune in this evening to the first presidential debate — which has historically been the most watched of the cycle. So, what’s new that they can learn, even after Trump and Biden’s decades in the limelight, and two debates four years ago?
The policy area in which we might see the most surprises is on the economy. Voters generally rank the economy and inflation as their two top issues, and unlike other topics in which we’re sure to hear rote lines of attack, there’s some legitimate mystery as to how each candidate will spin their own record.
The economy is a current weakness for Biden, with more voters trusting Trump by double digits. And with his Bidenomics tour not exactly selling out arenas, the Biden campaign has often highlighted other areas of his record as central parts of his pitch to Americans to give him four more years.
So how he fends off attacks from Trump on inflation and the economy, which are sure to come in droves, is an open question. As POLITICO’s Adam Cancryn and Josh Sisco reported today, a host of progressive Democrats and allies of the White House are urging Biden to lean into a populist message on the economy, highlighting how he’s gone after corporate greed and contrasting his pro-union record with Trump’s embrace of billionaires and their priorities.
The idea that Biden should lean into a more economic populist message has long been a hobby horse of progressives. But Cancryn and Sisco report that this group includes more than just the Bernie Sanders wing of the party — his team also heard it from more mainstream Democrats as he hunkered down at Camp David for debate prep.
And the message does seem to make sense — according to a new Axios Vibes survey from The Harris Poll, 41 percent of Americans say that government spending and policies are most to blame for inflation, while 39 percent blame corporate greed and 20 percent blame supply chain disruptions. More Republicans blame the government than Democrats, and vice versa for corporations, but for independents it’s exactly even: 41 percent blame the government and 41 percent blame corporations. If Biden is going to come in for attacks on government spending, it might behoove him to change the topic to corporate greed where he can.
Trump’s economic message looks a little bit clearer than Biden’s at first glance. He will do what he can at every turn to hammer the president on government spending and inflation, which he called “a nation buster” at a rally in Wisconsin last week. But some of the Biden administration’s economic decisions might make it a little harder for Trump to draw contrasts.
But how Trump plans to attack Biden for policies that sometimes look like Trump’s own — if CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash bring up this question — remains unclear. POLITICO’s Victoria Guida suggested today that Tapper and Bash should ask the candidates, “Are there any downsides to tariffs?”
It’s a question that the vast majority of economists wouldn’t have any trouble answering in the affirmative. Yet, with a political consensus shifting towards protectionism (or “America First”), the question could draw out a rare place in which the candidates have to at least be precise about their policy disagreements.
There’s a distinct possibility that tonight’s debate looks similar in tenor and content to one or both of the 2020 faceoffs, and few people leave the evening feeling differently
OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.
However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.
The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.
The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.
The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.
In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.
The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.
Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.
In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.
It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.
The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.
The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.
Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.
Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.
Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
