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‘The bond bubble has popped’: BofA investment strategist

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Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow

BofA Investment strategist Michael Hartnett’s weekly Flow Show report is scattered, blunt and interesting as usual (my emphasis) ,

“Zeitgeist: “what could be more 2023 than a 5% US GDP print being greeted by most recessionary daily tape since [Silicon Valley Bank].“ Tale of the Tape: 66% is market probability last Fed rate hike was July 26th; since July 26th: oil 6%, US$ 5%, S&P -9%, Nasdaq -11%, UST 30-year -16% … Bond bubble has popped; post-bubble price action sideways, in big, fat trading range – see Japan ‘89, internet ‘00, homebuilders ‘05, China ‘07; there will be rallies but likely no secular bond bull till D.C. serious about fiscal discipline … We think ‘hard landing’ probability higher than consensus 30%, and say ‘sell the last rate hike’ in inflationary backdrop (as higher-for-longer rates required to tame inflation)”.

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Scotiabank analyst Ben Isaacson described Ford Motor Co.’s response to slow electric vehicle demand,

“Ford will postpone $12B of EV investments, as North American buyers have largely become unwilling to pay a premium for EVs over traditional ICEs. This follows GM’s decision to scrap a $5B plan to co-develop affordable (<$30k) EVs with Honda. In our view, these moves, coupled with Chevron and Exxon both doubling down on oil recently will likely put pressure on governments to ease their EV transitions mandates, unless of course governments are willing to double down their economic incentives…”

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The research team at RB Advisors forwarded a list of facts from founder Richard Bernstein’s quarterly outlook webinar,

“Companies that grew the most: 130 companies in the US have growth earnings 25% or more in the last 4 quarters. How many of the Mag7 [Magnificent 7 large cap tech stocks] pass that screen? 1 … Investing at the peak of a hype cycle can have serious long-term effects. Did you know that energy has outperformed technology over the last 25 years? … We have been in a global profits recession but they are going to accelerate; global profitability is getting better … Where is the opportunity? You want the stocks that are causing interest rates to go up. We’ve been adding cyclicality to our portfolios. OW [ overweight] industrials, energy, healthcare, consumer staples”

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Canadian investors will have to be careful about the tax implications, but BMO chief strategist Brian Belski believes it’s time to buy oversold U.S. dividend stocks,

“The relative performance of the highest-yielding S&P 500 stocks has been under immense pressure in recent months as investors have likely shunned this area in response to higher-for-longer interest rate worries. However, we believe this indiscriminate selling has gone a bit too far and that a rebound is likely in store for these stocks in the coming months. From our perspective, the relationship between these stocks and interest rates is a little more nuanced, than the “low is good, high is bad” mantra that has overtaken them this year. In addition, the fundamental underpinnings of the group appear mismatched with performance trends. Thus, we believe it could be an opportune time for investors to consider adding exposure to high dividend yield stocks within portfolios.”

The report includes a list of high yield stocks that are buy-rated at BMO. Those likely to be of interest to Canadian investors include AbbVie Inc., American Tower, Bristol Myers Squibb Co [disclosure: I own a position in BMY], FMC Corp., Gilead Sciences, Morgan Stanley, and Pfizer.

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Diversion: Why read books when you can use chatbots to talk to them instead – Wired

 

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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