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The coronavirus is affecting Canada’s economy

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says that COVID-19 — with several new cases reported in Canada and the United States — is a moment of “real challenge” as health officials work to contain the virus and governments ready contingency plans to blunt the economic fallout of the health crisis.

Trudeau on Tuesday said Canada’s approach to the virus outbreak is working and said the numbers — 33 cases reported in the country, including 20 in Ontario — bear that out.

“We are confident that what we have done in Canada, what we continue to do in Canada is right for Canada,” he said.

Trudeau acknowledged, however, the virus is taking an economic toll.

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“We also recognize that there will be impacts on Canadians business, on Canadian entrepreneurs and we will also look for ways to minimize that impact and perhaps give help where help is needed,” Trudeau told reporters during a stop in Halifax.

The Bank of Canada is expected to react to those economic worries Wednesday by cutting a key interest rate. As well, the federal government is looking at contingency measures, all to blunt the economic fallout of the spread of COVID-19, which is ravaging tourism, rattling financial markets and upsetting global supply chains.

Analysts are expecting Canada’s central bank will trim its overnight rate by as much as half a percentage point to boost the economy and consumer and business confidence in the face of what the National Bank of Canada called a “clear and present danger” posed by the virus.

That rate cut would follow Tuesday’s move by the U.S. Federal Reserve, sobering signals that central bankers see trouble ahead.

Federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau talked with other G7 finance ministers and central bankers Tuesday and said later the government is weighing a number of measures to provide economic support if needed.

The World Health Organization on Tuesday reported 90,870 cases of COVID-19, with 10,566 of those outside China. There have been 3,112 deaths worldwide.

The pace of spread appeared to slow in the last day in China while the majority of new cases were reported in just a few countries — Italy, South Korea and Iran. Twelve countries reported their first cases. The U.S. reported more than 100 cases and nine deaths across 12 states.

Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO’s director general, warned Tuesday of a development that could compromise efforts to curb the virus — a shortage of gloves, medical masks, respirators and other protective equipment.

“Shortages are leaving doctors, nurses and other front line health-care workers dangerously ill-equipped to care for COVID-19 patients,” he said. “We can’t stop COVID-19 without protecting our health workers.”

The fear that the economic impacts suffered in regions hard hit by the virus such as China and Italy could further spill over into the global economy was the topic of a teleconference call between G7 finance ministers and central bank governors Tuesday morning.

In a statement, they vowed to use “all appropriate policy tools” to dampen the economic toll of the virus.

“G7 finance ministers are ready to take actions, including fiscal measures where appropriate, to aid in the response to the virus and support the economy during this phase,” the statement said.

Morneau said the finance department is closely watching sectors of the economy most vulnerable such as commodities, travel and tourism.

“We’re going to be thinking about the broad range of things we can do and we will be following the actual facts on the ground to decide when and if we should do those,” he said.

 

Make sense of what’s happening across the country and around the world with the Star’s This Week in Politics email newsletter.

 

The Canadian economy is already feeling the effects of blockades that stymied rail shipments across large parts of CN’s network, which made for a “devastating” February for manufacturers, an industry group said Tuesday.

“The rail blockades, COVID-19 … and now the prospect of U.S. tax cuts as a response to the pandemic threat are putting serious pressure on the Canadian economy,” the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters said in a statement.

 

Association president Dennis Darby said that it is “critical” that the coming budget include measures to support businesses, such as encouraging investment and address labour shortages. But he said the federal government has to be ready too with emergency stimulus measures.

Doug Porter, chief economist and managing director of BMO Financial Group, said that Tuesday’s rate cut in the U.S. “sets the table for a relatively aggressive move” by the Bank of Canada Wednesday.

“Clearly, this is not an issue that monetary policy can fix . . . but they can help soften the impact and take off some of the rougher edges for the economy from this virus,” he said.

He said that Canada is more vulnerable to a virus-spurred downturn because of the drop in commodity prices and noted that the Bank of Montreal had already trimmed its forecast for economic growth in Canada to 1.2 per cent for the year.

The federal Liberals are expected to release their budget — the first since the October election — in the coming weeks. But the escalating impact of the virus could force changes. Slower-than-expected growth would add to the deficit and the government could be forced into stimulus spending, something Porter said could come in the budget.

“They probably agreed to ramp up stimulus in this year’s budget,” Porter said.

John Manley, a former Liberal finance minister and deputy prime minister, told a public policy forum in Ottawa Monday that he worried about the potential impact of coronavirus and other external events on the federal government’s bottom line.

Speaking about the Chretien government’s painful exercise of slashing the deficits in the mid-1990s, Manley said he learned the hard way how vital it is to put the government’s books in the black.

Governments that do not trim deficits when times are good leave themselves vulnerable when inevitable crises are triggered, for example “when somebody gets sick in China” and an epidemic ripples outward, affecting global markets and the economy, he said.

Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, conceded that Tuesday’s rate cut can only do so much to contain the economic fallout that he said is already being felt.

“We do recognize that a rate cut will not reduce the rate of infection. It won’t fix a broken supply chain. We get that. We don’t think we have all the answers,” Powell told reporters in Washington.

 

“But we do believe our action will provide a meaningful boost to the economy,” he said.

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Limiting Global Warming to 1.5C Would Avoid Two-Thirds of Economic Toll – Bloomberg

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Climate inaction will depress the world’s economy more than previously estimated, according to a new study that takes into account the impacts of weather extremes and variability such as temperature spikes and intense rainfall.

A scenario in which global temperatures rise 3C on average will reduce the world’s gross domestic product by about 10%, doctoral researcher Paul Waidelich of ETH Zurich and colleagues write, with less developed countries paying the worst toll. By comparison, limiting global warming by 2050 to 1.5C — as sought by the Paris Agreement — will reduce that impact by about two-thirds.

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PM: Millennials and Gen Z drive Canadian economy – CTV News Montreal

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  1. PM: Millennials and Gen Z drive Canadian economy  CTV News Montreal
  2. Canada’s budget 2024 and what it means for the economy  Financial Post
  3. Federal budget is about ensuring fair economy for ‘everyone’: Trudeau  Global News

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Climate Change Will Cost Global Economy $38 Trillion Every Year Within 25 Years, Scientists Warn – Forbes

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Topline

Climate change is on track to cost the global economy $38 trillion a year in damages within the next 25 years, researchers warned on Wednesday, a baseline that underscores the mounting economic costs of climate change and continued inaction as nations bicker over who will pick up the tab.

Key Facts

Damages from climate change will set the global economy back an estimated $38 trillion a year by 2049, with a likely range of between $19 trillion and $59 trillion, warned a trio of researchers from Potsdam and Berlin in Germany in a peer reviewed study published in the journal Nature.

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To obtain the figure, researchers analyzed data on how climate change impacted the economy in more than 1,600 regions around the world over the past 40 years, using this to build a model to project future damages compared to a baseline world economy where there are no damages from human-driven climate change.

The model primarily considers the climate damages stemming from changes in temperature and rainfall, the researchers said, with first author Maximilian Kotz, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, noting these can impact numerous areas relevant to economic growth like “agricultural yields, labor productivity or infrastructure.”

Importantly, as the model only factored in data from previous emissions, these costs can be considered something of a floor and the researchers noted the world economy is already “committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years,” regardless of what society now does to address the climate crisis.

Global costs are likely to rise even further once other costly extremes like weather disasters, storms and wildfires that are exacerbated by climate change are considered, Kotz said.

The researchers said their findings underscore the need for swift and drastic action to mitigate climate change and avoid even higher costs in the future, stressing that a failure to adapt could lead to average global economic losses as high as 60% by 2100.

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How Do The Costs Of Inaction Compare To Taking Action?

Cost is a major sticking point when it comes to concrete action on climate change and money has become a key lever in making climate a “culture war” issue. The costs and logistics involved in transitioning towards a greener, more sustainable economy and moving to net zero are immense and there are significant vested interests such as the fossil fuel industry, which is keen to retain as much of the profitable status quo for as long as possible. The researchers acknowledged the sizable costs of adapting to climate change but said inaction comes with a cost as well. The damages estimated already dwarf the costs associated with the money needed to keep climate change in line with the limits set out in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the researchers said, referencing the globally agreed upon goalpost set to minimize damage and slash emissions. The $38 trillion estimate for damages is already six times the $6 trillion thought needed to meet that threshold, the researchers said.

Crucial Quote

“We find damages almost everywhere, but countries in the tropics will suffer the most because they are already warmer,” said study author Anders Levermann. The researcher, also of the Potsdam Institute, explained there is a “considerable inequity of climate impacts” around the world and that “further temperature increases will therefore be most harmful” in tropical countries. “The countries least responsible for climate change” are expected to suffer greater losses, Levermann added, and they are “also the ones with the least resources to adapt to its impacts.”

What To Watch For

The fundamental inequality over who is impacted most by climate change and who has benefited most from the polluting practices responsible for the climate crisis—who also have more resources to mitigate future damages—has become one of the most difficult political sticking points when it comes to negotiating global action to reduce emissions. Less affluent countries bearing the brunt of climate change argue wealthy nations like the U.S. and Western Europe have already reaped the benefits from fossil fuels and should pay more to cover the losses and damages poorer countries face, as well as to help them with the costs of adapting to greener sources of energy. Other countries, notably big polluters India and China, stymie negotiations by arguing they should have longer to wean themselves off of fossil fuels as their emissions actually pale in comparison to those of more developed countries when considered in historical context and on a per capita basis. Climate financing is expected to be key to upcoming negotiations at the United Nations’s next climate summit in November. The COP29 summit will be held in Baku, the capital city of oil-rich Azerbaijan.

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