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The economy is in for tough times, but here’s a roadmap for recovery from the coronavirus – MarketWatch

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So what next? When does the U.S. economy start to return to normal after the shutdowns resulting from the coronavirus epidemic?

Here’s the optimistic view on what will happen in the next six to nine months.

Not for the next few months. The government still doesn’t know how widely the coronavirus has spread across America because of repeated snafus creating a test and it will take time to contain it. Until then large parts of the economy —schools, sports leagues, workplaces, cultural sites — are likely to remain shut down or operating on a limited basis.

The result: The economy could shrink as much as 4% to 5% in the second quarter and trigger a sharp increase in unemployment, according to the most pessimistic Wall Street forecasts. The last time that happened was during the 2007-2009 Great Recession.

“There’s going to be a lot of bad news in the next three to four months,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth Management. “It will be pretty ugly. It is sure going to feel like a recession for awhile.”

Read:Economy could tank in the second quarter as nation shuts down to fight coronavirus

The good news?

The vast majority of economists predict the U.S. will start to rebound later in the year, though they are split over how soon and how fast. Some like Donabedian see a rapid recovery starting in the summer. Others predict a short recession that extends through the fall.

The more optimistic view is based on the assumption that the U.S. approach to containing the coronavirus more closely mirrors that of South Korea or Hong Kong than Italy or Iran.

In South Korea and Hong Kong, widespread testing, quarantines and “social distancing” appear to have dramatically reduced the increase in new cases. By contrast, Italy and Iran were slower to adopt tough measures to bottle up the virus.

“Some countries have proven that if you take precautionary measures such as social distancing you can get in front of this virus and contain it or at least slow it down,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

If the U.S. achieves the same success as say, South Korea, the hope is that spread of the coronavirus will taper off by early summer, when illnesses such as the flu and cold also tend to weaken because of the heat and humidity.

“Warm weather could alleviate the condition somewhat,” said Donabedian, giving drug companies more time to come up with treatments. It would also put the U.S. medical system in better position to cope with the COVID-19 illness if it returns in the fall.

The more optimistic scenario also assumes Congress and the Federal Reserve take unprecedented steps to shore up the economy through the worst of the crisis.

Read:Consumer sentiment tumbles in March as coronavirus threat explodes into view

The Fed has already cut a key interest rate on March 3 and could reduce it to basically zero by next week. The lowest rates in modern times is already encouraging a fusillade of mortgage refinancings that will put more money in family’s pockets.

Even more important is the response from Congress and the White House. President Trump on Friday declared a rare national emergency to provide up to $50 billion in aid to the areas hit hardest by the coronavirus.

Congress, for its part, is assembling what’s likely to be the first in a series of steps to cushion the blow to individuals and businesses most likely to suffer. A pending bill includes free testing, paid sick leave, emergency jobless benefits and small-business bridge loans.

Economists says an overwhelming federal response is critical.

“An extremely strong safety net, even if it’s only temporary, is going to keep people spending and paying their bills and also provide a psychological safety net that is crucial,” said Robert Frick, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

If the U.S. response is effective, the economy could start to recover from July onward, with the stock market
DJIA,
+9.36%

SPX,
+9.28%

offering early telltale signs. U.S. economic growth could return to the 2% pace that’s prevailed over the past decade before the end of the year.

“We think we will see a nice bounce back in the third quarter,” Guatieri said.

Still, even relative optimists such as Guatieri say there’s still too much uncertainty to feel confident. He and Wells Fargo’s Bullard say their firms have been changing their forecasts almost daily in the past week as the situation deteriorated. What’s made matters worse is simply not knowing the scope of the problem

“We’re not getting the insight into where we are or where we are going,” Bullard said. “So we’re all just speculating.”

See also: Trump declares national emergency due to coronavirus, putting more aid in play

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$71B wage subsidy 'appropriate' to keep economy afloat: Morneau – BNNBloomberg.ca

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Finance Minister Bill Morneau said the ballooning cost of federal measures being promised to workers impacted by COVID-19 is essential to keeping the Canadian economy afloat.

“I’m worried about the size of the investment, always,” Morneau told BNN Bloomberg in an interview on Wednesday. “I’m also worried about not only the numerator, but the denominator: The size of the economy. That economy is what we’re focused on at the end.”

“These are some of the biggest expenditures that have ever been done in Canadian history. We recognize that. But it’s the appropriate thing to do at this time, and once we’re through this, we will have to make sure that we get ourselves back on an appropriate track.”

Feds ‘clearly learning’ from 2008 crisis with wage subsidy: CIBC’s Tal

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal praised the federal government’s $71-billion wage subsidy details announced on Wednesday, but warned that many small businesses could go under without help paying rent.

Morneau unveiled some crucial details about the federal government’s emergency wage subsidy on Wednesday, pegging the cost of the program that’s meant to cushion the blow from COVID-19 at $71 billion.

In a press conference earlier on Wednesday, Morneau said he expects funds will begin to flow in approximately six weeks, and that employers that apply will have to show their revenue fell at least 30 per cent compared to the same month last year. He confirmed that funds will be sent to employers via direct deposit from the Canada Revenue Agency.

A senior government official said during a technical briefing call that the funds could be delivered as early as three weeks, but it depends on how quick the CRA can launch the system for businesses to apply for the subsidy. 

The official added that the CRA will offer some “flexibility” to high-growth businesses that don’t have a full year of operations in place to compare a year’s worth of revenue, suggesting prior monthly sales figures could be used instead. 

Morneau said the government’s focus now has to be offering a lifeline to Canadians and Canadian businesses as soon as possible.

“I have been very focused during my time as finance minister to manage our fiscal position, to make sure we reduce our debt as a function of our economy. Well, that’s not where we are today,” he said.

“Where we are today is: I am focused on making sure people have enough money to pay for their groceries and their rent. I’m trying to make sure that we have a process that will get that money out to people rapidly.”

The revised wage subsidy program was unveiled by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Mar. 27 and will subsidize 75 per cent of wages for qualifying businesses up to a period of three months. It will be retroactive to March 15 and will cover the first $58,700 of salary up to a maximum of $847 per week. 

The federal government had initially planned a subsidy of 10 per cent, which was quickly panned by small business leaders as insufficient. Nonetheless, the government confirmed Wednesday that the 10 per cent subsidy will still be available to employers that don’t qualify for the 75 per cent subsidy.

Morneau added that there will be “severe penalties” for anyone who seeks to use the funds fraudulently. However, specifics on how businesses will be penalized were not announced on Wednesday. 

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China's economy may not grow at all in 2020. That hasn't happened in 44 years – CNN

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GDP growth this year in the world’s second biggest economy could sink to just 1% or 2%, down from 6.1% in 2019, according to recent estimates by analysts, including a Chinese government economist. In a worst case scenario, the $14 trillion economy may not grow at all, the World Bank warned earlier this week.
That would be its weakest performance in 44 years, worse even than the troughs hit during the 2008-2009 global recession and in 1990, when the West imposed sanctions on China after the Tiananmen Square massacre.
China is trying to revive its economy without risking more lives. The world is watching
Analysts from UBS and Goldman Sachs recently slashed their estimates for China’s growth this year to 1.5% and 3% respectively.
Even Chinese officials, who have set annual GDP targets every year since 1985, are wary of making predictions. A policymaker at the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said this week that the government should not set a target for 2020.
“It’s difficult to even realize growth of between 4% and 5%. Many have predicted growth to fall to just 1% or 2% [this year]. These circumstances are all possible,” Ma Jun, a member of the monetary policy committee at the Chinese central bank told the state-owned Economic Daily.
Given the huge uncertainties in the outlook, China is finding it hard to determine how much fiscal and monetary stimulus to unleash, Ma said. An “unrealistic” growth target may encourage local governments to splurge on infrastructure investments, which do little to ease unemployment or improve people’s livelihoods in the short term, he added.

More help needed

Still, an official survey this week showing an anemic recovery in China’s vast manufacturing industry last month, following a collapse in activity in February, was followed by news of more stimulus measures.
China’s cabinet on Tuesday announced more than 3 trillion yuan ($423 billion) in extra financial support for small businesses.
The PBOC will provide an additional 1 trillion yuan ($141 billion) to small and medium-sized banks, and cut the amount of cash they must hold as reserves. Both measures are aimed at boosting lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
Previously, the central bank had injected liquidity or allocated additional lending worth more than 1.65 trillion yuan ($232 billion). The government had also allocated at least 116.9 billion yuan ($16.4 billion) in financial relief and stimulus aimed at fighting the virus.
The coronavirus pandemic could push 11 million people in Asia into poverty, World Bank warnsThe coronavirus pandemic could push 11 million people in Asia into poverty, World Bank warns
Tuesday’s announcement included a promise from the government to double “temporary cash handouts” to low-income families and the unemployed from March to June. The government didn’t specify how much it would give out, but said the move is estimated to benefit more than 67 million people.
“We believe ramping up financial relief for enterprises (especially SMEs) and households inflicted by the pandemic should be the best economic and social policies at the moment,” Ting Lu, chief China economist for Nomura, said in a note on Wednesday.
Beijing is also trying to revive the automotive industry after sales plunged 42% in January and February. The government will extend subsidies and tax breaks on electric vehicles by two years, while cutting sales tax on used cars from May through the end of 2023.
A private survey published Wednesday showed that China’s manufacturing activity expanded ever so slightly in March, as factories reopened following the easing of widespread shutdowns and travel restrictions.
The Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 50.1 last month from a record low of 40.3 in February. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.
The PMI data suggest the contraction in activity has bottomed out, but the economy has not recovered yet, analysts for Capital Economics said in a note on Wednesday.
China boasts massive car and aviation markets. Both collapsed in FebruaryChina boasts massive car and aviation markets. Both collapsed in February
“The [Caixin] survey suggests that just over half of firms saw conditions improve last month — implying that activity improved marginally relative to February’s dismal showing but remains very weak,” they wrote.
“The slow pace of improvement implied by last month’s PMIs is consistent with our view that China faces a drawn out recovery from the Covid-19 outbreak,” they said.

Tens of millions of jobs at risk

Capital Economics has one of the most bearish forecasts for China’s economy this year. It estimates GDP shrank by as much as 16% in the first quarter, and predicts a contraction of 3% for 2020 as a whole.
China faces two major headwinds as it tries to get back on its feet — weakening foreign demand due to the global pandemic and a potential second wave of coronavirus cases.
Nomura estimates China’s economy will grow by only 1% in 2020, causing millions of job losses.
“We estimate that slumping exports alone could lead to a loss of 18 million jobs in [the second quarter],” Lu wrote on Tuesday.
Caixin will publish its survey of activity in China’s services industry — which accounts for roughly 60% of GDP — on Friday. Whatever it shows, analysts expect the government will have to provide more help for the economy.
Tao Wang, chief China economist for UBS, said Beijing is likely to announce more support for individuals, the labor market and health care systems, more infrastructure investment, and additional cuts in interest rates.
“Moreover, we expect the government to either lower this year’s GDP growth target significantly or … [focus it] instead on coronavirus control, work resumption, poverty reduction and supporting labour market,” she said.

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‘There could be a rapid bounce back’: Experts believe economy can recover fast after pandemic – CityNews Vancouver

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VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – While there’s a lot of financial uncertainty for many people in the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, there may be reason for optimism.

At least two economists believe Canada’s economy can bounce back quickly, once the pandemic ends.

“The good news is that if the coronavirus public health issue gets resolved, I think there will be a fast recovery,” says James Brander, Professor at the Sauder School of Business at UBC. “I think the governments are doing the right things to keep in place the possibility of a fast recovery, so there’s no reason why we can’t bounce back quickly.”

The main question, of course, is when that will happen.

“There’s some reason for optimism that there could be a sharp expansion but that depends very much on the public health situation and that of course is very uncertain,” adds Brander.

Mark Thompson, professor emeritus of Industrial Relations at the Sauder School of Business at UBC agrees a fast recovery is possible.

“I mean, the economy was in pretty good shape when this all happened and I think the demand is still there and the industries that have been forced to close can reopen,” he says. “In the past, recessions we’ve had tended to be sharp but not long lasting and I think that’s what’s going to happen here.”

However, despite the glimmer of hope, both economists admit the current situation is bleak, and there will still be struggles ahead before we’re able to bounce back.

“We’re seeing a sharper downturn than we’ve seen probably since the 1930s,” says Brander. “For the past week there will be in Canada approximately 1 million jobless claims. That’s approximately double the previous record.”

Brander adds financial help coming from the federal government will help people stay afloat.

“There’s enough in place for people to survive. Not feel good, but survive for a few months and we hope that things are looking better after two or three months,” he says.

Thompson also believes help coming from some provinces and Ottawa is a good start, but thinks more will be necessary depending on how long the pandemic lasts.

“The government, I think, is acting fairly vigorously and the focus on the employees who are losing their jobs and the small businesses who may collapse if this goes on is all very good,” he says. “I don’t think anybody believes that these measures are sufficient or that there won’t be more measures required in the future.”

Thompson adds a lot of what happens in the next few months will depend on the length and severity of the crisis.

“I guess if I knew that, I would make a lot of money in the stock market or something, if I could predict the future,” Thompson says.

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