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The Federal Reserve's rate debate and Ukraine tensions could jolt markets in the week ahead – CNBC

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Stocks are likely to be volatile in the week ahead as investors watch tensions between Russia and Ukraine and debate how quickly the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates.

Markets were roiled in the past week and bond yields spiked after a hot inflation reading Thursday upended many Wall Street forecasts for interest rate hikes. Investors were dealt another blow Friday after the White House warned that Russia could invade Ukraine during the Olympics. Both the U.S. and U.K. have called for their citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible.

“I think the Fed is keeping everyone on edge, and this is going to add to that edginess,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “So we had a three-week earnings respite from the macro. We turned micro, and this week we were reminded earnings season is pretty much over and all macro issues matter again.”

The major averages slid sharply on Friday afternoon, and Treasury yields came off the highs they set after Thursday’s report that January’s consumer price index jumped by 7.5%, a 40-year high. The S&P 500 lost 1.8% for the week, falling to 4,418.

With about two hours left to Friday trading, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told a White House briefing that there were signs of Russian escalation at the Ukraine border. Sullivan said it was possible an invasion could occur during the Olympics, despite speculation to the contrary.

“Up until now, I’d say it was all about monetary policy. This throws an extra unknown into the works,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “The dollar is rallying, oil prices have rallied and stocks are selling off… Even if nothing happens this weekend, people will be nervous about it in the next week.”

Boockvar said the Russian tensions complicate the central bank’s outlook, and an invasion would add to already hot global inflation. “It’s causing problems for the Fed because this basically would inflate oil prices, food prices, wheat, fertilizers and everything else and just make the Fed’s inflation fighting capability that much more difficult to maneuver,” he said. “The Fed can’t back off. You can’t blame geopolitics as a reason not to hike rates.”

He said if the central bank were concerned about an economic impact, it could slow hikes.

Fed’s inflation fight

By Friday morning, some economists had ratcheted up expectations for the Fed to hike interest rates by a half point in March, following the January inflation report. Others, like economists at Goldman Sachs, have raised their views to a faster pace, with as many as seven quarter-point hikes for this year.

Fed speakers will be a highlight in the week ahead, particularly St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who appears on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Monday at 8:30 a.m. Bullard added to market turbulence and the sharp jump in bond yields Thursday when he said that he would like to see rates rise by 100 basis points (or 1 percentage point) by July.

“I think volatility remains elevated as we transition from essentially this more dovish Fed to this more hawkish Fed policy which we’re experiencing,” said Patrick Palfrey, senior equity strategist at Credit Suisse. “We haven’t yet settled on how hawkish we are going to be and until we can chart a new path for interest rates hikes with some consistency, I think volatility is going to remain elevated, and that’s going to be more true for high valuation companies.”

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What to watch

The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its last meeting on Wednesday. Investors will watch it carefully for any new insights on its plans for rate hikes, the inflation outlook or comments on its balance sheet.

There will also be more important inflation data, when the producer price index is reported Tuesday. That report is also expected to be very hot, after January’s CPI. Surging inflation has caused consumer sentiment to slump, and now economists are watching consumer spending closely. That means January’s retail sales will also be important when it is reported Wednesday.

There is also a final rush of big earnings reports, with Cisco, Nvidia and AIG Wednesday. Walmart reports Thursday, and Deere reports Friday.

“We’re starting to transition beyond earnings, I think investors took a fair amount of comfort that profit margins stayed as high as they did,” said Palfrey. “I think the question is as we look out at the next couple of quarters, are we able to pass through prices at the same rate?”

Fed debate

Palfrey said investors are looking for more clear communications from the central bank. Bullard is the only Fed official who endorsed a 50-basis-point hike, while others, like Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she does not expect to raise the fed funds target rate by more than a quarter point. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has left the door open to a half point hike but did not say he favored it.

Fed Governor Lael Brainard speaks Friday, as does Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Mester speaks Thursday.

Other Fed officials have pushed back on Bullard’s comments. But still, there is a high level of uncertainty in the market, and bond pros are wondering if the St. Louis Fed chief will walk back his comments Monday morning.

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said some investors wonder if market volatility could slow the central bank’s tightening path.

“The Fed is full steam ahead. They have to be… They’re still adding to the balance sheet. We’re still at zero on rates,” she said. “There’s nothing in my mind, unless an asteroid lands on earth and blows us all to smithereens, that makes the Fed say we’re fine, we’re going to stay at zero.”

“They’re admitting themselves they’re behind the curve. They let the inflation cat out of the bag. I don’t think they thought it would have the traction it has had,” she said.

Rate rally and reverse

When bonds sell off, yields go higher and they jumped this past week. The 10-year yield was as high as 2.06% Friday. After the Ukraine news, the 10-year yield was back down to about 1.93%.

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The 2-year yield was at a high of 1.63% Friday, up from 1.32% the week earlier. The biggest moves were Thursday, and the yield on the 2-year note moved more than 20 basis points Thursday. But by Friday afternoon, it had fallen back to 1.51%.

Week ahead calendar

Monday

Earnings: Avis Budget, Vornado Realty, Advance Auto Parts, BHP Group, Weber, Brookdale Senior Living

8:30 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on CNBC’s Squawk Box

Tuesday

Earnings: Marriott, Airbnb, Wynn Resorts, ViacomCBS, Akamai, Lattice Semiconductor, Adaptive Biotech, Denny’s, Devon Energy, ZoomInfo, La-Z-Boy, Wyndham Hotels, Toast, Upstart Holdings, BorgWarner, Restaurant Brands, Zoetis, Roblox

8:30 a.m. PPI

8:30 a.m. Empire State manufacturing

2:00 p.m. TIC data

Wednesday

Earnings: Cisco Systems, Nvidia, TripAdvisor, AIG, DoorDash, Applied Materials, Hyatt Hotels, Kraft Heinz, Hilton Worldwide, Pioneer Natural Resources, Cheesecake Factory, Marathon Oil, Boston Beer, AMC Networks, Generac, Owens Corning, Analog Devices, Barrick Gold, Vulcan Materials, Community Health, American Water Works, Ryder System

8:30 a.m. Retail sales

8:30 a.m. Import prices

8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey

9:15 a.m. Industrial production

10:00 a.m. Business inventories

10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

2:00 p.m. Fed meeting minutes

Thursday

Earnings: Walmart, Airbus, Nestle, AutoNation, Dropbox, Roku, Shake Shack, Tanger Factory Outlet, Visteon, US Foods, Consolidated Edison, Yamana Gold, Liberty Global, Baxter International, Yeti, Southern Co, Reliance Steel, Palantir, Sealed Air, Realogy

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims

8:30 a.m. Housing starts

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing

11:00 a.m. St. Louis Fed’s Bullard

5:00 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester

Friday

Earnings: Deere, Allianz, Bloomin’ Brands, Draftkings

10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

10:00 a.m. QSS

10:15 a.m. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans at U.S. Monetary Policy forum

11:00 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams

1:30 p.m. Fed Governor Lael Brainard at U.S. Monetary Policy forum

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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