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The Fed’s man-made housing market recession hit so hard that 4 real estate titans just lost their Fortune 500 status

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Not only did rock bottom interest rates during the pandemic spur a refinancing bonanza, but with the help of remote work and tight inventory, they also heated up the housing market in a way that hadn’t been seen since the bubble. Borrowers simply couldn’t pass up on 30-year fixed mortgages with a rate of 3%—or in some cases 2%. Few companies, of course, benefited more from that housing boom than Rocket Companies, which during the roughest part of the lockdowns did $5 billion in sales in the second quarter of 2020 compared to $1.6 billion in the same quarter in 2019.

That’s behind us now: The mortgage rate shock created by the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking campaign has set off a housing market recession. While national home prices remain fairly stable, housing activity hasn’t been so lucky. Residential fixed investment, otherwise known as housing GDP, has fallen for four straight quarters, while mortgage refinance applications and mortgage purchase applications are down 45% and 31%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.

The Fed’s man-made housing market downturn has been so sharp that when the Fortune 500 list was unveiled on Monday, it was missing four major real estate companies, which had been on the list last year. That includes Rocket Companies (which was No. 282 on the Fortune 500 list unveiled in June 2022), Zillow (No. 424 last year), Anywhere Real Estate (No. 427 last year), and Compass (No. 495 last year).

Rocket Companies, the parent of Rocket Mortgage (formerly known as Quicken Loans), has clearly taken the biggest hit among the four real estate titans that dropped off the Fortune 500 list (a list of the 500 biggest publicly traded U.S. companies by revenue). Over the past year, Rocket Companies’ revenue has fallen -54%, compared to -24% at Zillow, -6% at Compass, and -14% at Anywhere Real Estate.

Rocket Mortgage, which has been hard hit by the decline in the purchase and refi markets, hasn’t just given up its pandemic sales gains—it has even fallen below its pre-pandemic revenue figures (see chart above). Not to mention, it’s losing money right now, including a $493 million loss in Q4 2022 followed by a $411 million loss in Q1 2023.

In order to juice sales, Rocket Mortgage recently went as far as to underwrite a mortgage product that requires qualified and eligible mortgage borrowers to only put down 1%. That type of creative lending speaks to how challenging this macro environment is right now for mortgage lenders.

Just because a real estate/housing firm remained on the list—or even climbed—doesn’t mean it’s all sunshine and roses right now. Look no further than Opendoor, which climbed 159 spots this year to No. 266 after ramping up its home flipping business in the first half of 2022. Only it turned out that Opendoor had loaded up on too many Phoenix, Bay Area, Reno, Las Vegas, and Boise homes just as those Western markets were slipping into full-blown home price corrections last year. That might explain why Opendoor shares are trading at just $2.37 as of Monday’s close, which is far below its 2021 high of $34.

Of course, there are some bright spots for housing. Major homebuilders like Lennar, which climbed 12 spots on the Fortune 500 to No. 119, and D.R. Horton, which climbed 4 spots to No. 120, have seen their business outlooks improve. PulteGroup (No. 259), NVR (No. 376), and Toll Brothers (No. 382) also climbed up a few spots this year.

While activity levels in the existing/resale housing market remain frozen, the new construction market has seen a remarkable resurgence this spring. As mortgage rates spurred a housing downturn last year, builders like D.R. Horton and Lennar had the breathing room to reduce margins (i.e. cutting house prices and/or aggressive rate buydowns) in pursuit of attracting priced out buyers. And it’s working: Builder cancellation rates have normalized, while new home sales are once again on the upswing.

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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