From the highest possible point of the organization, the Maple Leafs made it clear how they felt about the 2022-23 season when they declined to extend the contract of the general manager who had just overseen the most prolific regular season in franchise history (115 points).
Regular-season success would no longer be enough.
The Leafs went on to put together the second best regular season (111 points) in franchise history. And it won’t be enough to stave off major organizational change, not without some kind of step — even just winning a single round — in the postseason.
That’s what’s at stake here this spring. Things won’t be the same for the Leafs, perhaps drastically so, if they don’t find a way past Tampa, the team that’s won two of the last three Stanley Cups.
The future of the franchise is at stake, starting, of course, with Kyle Dubas’ future as GM.
The Leafs have been a process-driven machine under Dubas. But process is no longer enough it seems. After six straight playoff defeats, results must follow when it matters most. Right or wrong, that’s been made clear.
Kyle Dubas, left, has been Toronto’s general manager since 2018-19. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
This will be Dubas’ fifth postseason running the show. Each of the previous four went the distance, all in losing efforts. The Leafs were favoured twice — against the Blue Jackets and Canadiens. And were slight underdogs twice — against the Bruins and Lightning.
They’re arguably slight favourites over the Lightning this time around. Slight because while the Leafs finished with the superior record, goal differential, and territorial advantage, the Lightning are the Lightning. They’ve made three straight Final appearances (four with this particular core). They’ve gotten it done again and again when it counts. They’ve earned the overwhelming benefit of the doubt, the benefit of the doubt the Leafs lack at the moment.
The Leafs were this close to beating the Lightning last spring. Another losing effort, even if this close yet again, may not be enough to forestall major change. The Leafs got that mulligan after last season, which followed a brutal loss to Montreal in 2021.
If upper management/ownership is serious, it’s Dubas who may not be around in another first-round defeat. It’s also possible he decides to leave for another opportunity. And without Dubas around, with another GM in charge, all bets about the future of the team are off.
Does Auston Matthews want to see what the future looks like under new leadership before he commits to the organization with a contract extension this summer? Does William Nylander, who can also extend his contract? Does a GM not named Kyle Dubas opt against keeping Nylander? Do they take a sledgehammer to Dubas’ top-heavy roster-building approach and decide that one big piece has to go? Does said GM consider moving Morgan Rielly, the longest-serving Leaf who has seven years left and a $7.5 million cap hit on his contract?
Do the Leafs make their team worse in the process?
What becomes of head coach Sheldon Keefe if the Leafs fail to win a round? Keefe was brought in to take the Leafs where Mike Babcock could not. He’s been at the helm of the last three playoff exits.
The Leafs might have a new GM and coach if they can’t get past the Lightning.
We’re talking about major change here, potentially, without a tangible step forward.
Is Brendan Shanahan, team president for almost 10 years now, still overseeing the operation from up top?
Maybe Dubas, a la Alex Anthopolous, decides he doesn’t want to stay if the Leafs fail to advance. Maybe he decides to stay and the organization agrees to keep him, but only under the condition that something substantial changes — a core piece, the coach, something.
Show some progress by winning a round, and maybe even forge deeper after that, and all that can be avoided.
The forward group is as well-rounded as it’s been in the current era.
The Leafs can boast two No. 1-calibre lines if they want and round them out with a pair of useful, responsible, speedy, and energetic bottom-two units. Because of O’Reilly in particular, they can also shape-shift into different formations. They can move John Tavares over to the wing, or, keep him at centre and play O’Reilly as the 3C, or even as the left winger to Matthews and Mitch Marner.
More centre versatility — with Acciari and Lafferty also able to play the middle — means more versatility, period for Keefe.
The Leafs didn’t have that Lightning-like malleability last season, the ability to move parts in and around the lineup freely. In addition to O’Reilly, they have one more suddenly viable top-six option in Calle Järnkrok, who shot the lights out playing with Matthews in particular.
Unlike last year, there’s a strong case to be made that the Leafs are deeper up front than the Lightning, who lost Ondrej Palat to free agency last summer and deadline acquisition Tanner Jeannot to injury, while seeing Corey Perry and Patrick Maroon show their age.
This could be the series that Matthews completely takes over. He’s been trending up in recent weeks after an injury-plagued season that still saw him score 40 goals. Maybe it’s the series that Marner finally goes wild.
Tavares and Nylander might well break out with better help around them.
The crew on defence is not without questions, with Jake Muzzin unavailable to play after a strong showing against the Lightning last spring. In his place comes another Jake — Jake McCabe — who will be playing in his first NHL postseason and doing it in first-pairing duty (in all likelihood) with TJ Brodie. It remains to be seen whether McCabe can have a Muzzin-like effect playing every other night against Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos.
He and Brodie showed well together during the regular season.
Just like the forward group, Keefe has options if the McCabe-Brodie combo struggles or if the Leafs need to tweak their look on the back end. More puck moving and mobility with Timothy Liljegren. More jam with Schenn. More power-play pop from Gustafsson.
The Tampa D, mind you, isn’t what it once was, not with Ryan McDonagh playing elsewhere and Victor Hedman having what for him counts as a down season.
The Lightning power play is still a problem. But the Leafs have a pretty good one, too. Winning the special teams’ battle is well within their capability.
The Leafs’ biggest potential liability is obviously in goal. Can Ilya Samsonov at least keep things close with Andrei Vasilevskiy?
Peek at the numbers between Jack Cambpell and Vasilevskiy in last year’s series and you might think Campbell did just that. However, Vasilevskiy took over in Games 6 and 7, stopping 60 of 64 shots, including all but one in the finale.
Vasilevskiy has had a down year, but even a down year from Vasilevskiy — a .915 save percentage, almost 27 goals saved above expected — looks pretty freakin’ good.
Mitch Marner skates with the puck towards Andrei Vasilevskiy. (Kim Klement / USA Today)
Samsonov doesn’t necessarily need to outduel him. He just can’t allow the kind of squeakers that doomed Campbell and Frederik Andersen in playoffs past.
Of course, the goal here for the Leafs isn’t to win one series. It’s to win four. And while beating the Lightning may well stave off major organizational change and chase away those playoff ghosts, lingering since 2004, it’s only with a Stanley Cup that this season will really qualify as a success.
The drought that really matters is at 56 years.
This Leafs team is built to win now.
There’s the contractual uncertainty with Matthews and Nylander. A much bigger contract isn’t far off for Marner. Samsonov will be due a richer deal this offseason. Tavares is 32. Brodie is 32. O’Reilly is 32 and a pending unrestricted free agent. Järnkrok is 31. So is Acciari, another pending UFA. McCabe and Rielly are both 29.
Regardless of how things shake out with Dubas, this team will almost certainly look a lot different next season. Potentially weaker.
Another consideration is all those draft picks the Leafs surrendered at the trade deadline. It was the right thing — the only thing — to do for a team with real championship potential, but it only serves to raise the stakes that much more.
The franchise will turn on what comes next.
(Top photo of Auston Matthews: China Wong / NHLI via Getty Images)
TORONTO – Reigning PWHL MVP and scoring champ Natalie Spooner will miss the start of the regular season for the Toronto Sceptres, general manager Gina Kingsbury announced Tuesday on the first day of training camp.
The 33-year-old Spooner had knee surgery on her left anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) after she was checked into the boards by Minnesota’s Grace Zumwinkle in Game 3 of their best-of-five semifinal series on May 13.
She had a goal and an assist in three playoff games but did not finish the series. Toronto was up 2-1 in the semifinal at that time and eventually fell 3-2 in the series.
Spooner led the PWHL with 27 points in 24 games. Her 20 goals, including five game-winners, were nine more than the closest skater.
Kingsbury said there is no timeline, as the team wants the Toronto native at 100 per cent, but added that “she is doing really well” in her recovery.
The Sceptres open the PWHL season on Nov. 30 when they host the Boston Fleet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.
LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — A top official of the Pakistan Cricket Board declined Friday to confirm media reports that India has decided against playing any games in host Pakistan during next year’s Champions Trophy.
“My view is if there’s any problems, they (India) should tell us in writing,” PCB chairman Mohsin Naqvi told reporters in Lahore. “I’ll share that with the media as well as with the government as soon as I get such a letter.”
Indian media reported Friday that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has communicated its concerns to all the Champions Trophy stakeholders, including the PCB, over the Feb. 19-March 9 tournament and would not play in arch-rival Pakistan.
The Times of India said that “Dubai is a strong candidate to host the fixtures involving the Men in Blue” for the 50-over tournament.
Such a solution would see Pakistan having to travel to a neutral venue to play India in a group match, with another potential meeting later in the tournament if both teams advanced from their group. The final is scheduled for March 9 in Pakistan with the specific venue not yet decided.
“Our stance is clear,” Naqvi said. “They need to give us in writing any objections they may have. Until now, no discussion of the hybrid model has happened, nor are we prepared to accept one.”
Political tensions have stopped bilateral cricket between the two nations since 2008 and they have competed in only multi-nation tournaments, including ICC World Cups.
“Cricket should be free of politics,” Naqvi said. “Any sport should not be entangled with politics. Our preparations for the Champions Trophy will continue unabated, and this will be a successful event.”
The PCB has already spent millions of dollars on the upgrade of stadiums in Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi which are due to host 15 Champions Trophy games. Naqvi hoped all the three stadiums will be ready over the next two months.
“Almost every country wants the Champions Trophy to be played here (in Pakistan),” Naqvi said. “I don’t think anyone should make this a political matter, and I don’t expect they will. I expect the tournament will be held at the home of the official hosts.”
Eight countries – Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan – are due to compete in the tournament, the schedule of which is yet to be announced by the International Cricket Council.
“Normally the ICC announces the schedule of any major tournament 100 days before the event, and I hope they will announce it very soon,” Naqvi said.
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Ottawa‘s Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe of New Zealand are through to the doubles final at the WTA Finals after a 7-6 (7), 6-1 victory over Nicole Melichar-Martinez of the United States and Australia’s Ellen Perez in semifinal action Friday.
Dabrowski and Routliffe won a hard-fought first set against serve when Routliffe’s quick reaction at the net to defend a Perez shot gave the duo set point, causing Perez to throw down her racket in frustration.
The second seeds then cruised through the second set, winning match point on serve when Melichar-Martinez couldn’t handle Routliffe’s shot.
The showdown was a rematch of last year’s semifinal, which Melichar-Martinez and Perez won in a super tiebreak.
Dabrowski and Routliffe will face the winner of a match between Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend, and Hao-Ching Chan and Veronika Kudermetova in the final on Saturday.
Dabrowski is aiming to become the first Canadian to win a WTA Finals title.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
