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The Geopolitical Risk Premium Is Back in Oil Markets – OilPrice.com

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The Geopolitical Risk Premium Is Back in Oil Markets | OilPrice.com




Michael Kern

Michael Kern

Michael Kern is a newswriter and editor at Safehaven.com and Oilprice.com, 

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The geopolitical risk premium returned to oil markets this week after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer and bombed Rafah. 

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Friday, February 9th, 2024

The geopolitical risk premium kicked back in big time this week after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer in Gaza and bombed the border city of Rafah, making it increasingly unlikely that the upcoming weeks would see any de-escalation of tensions in Gaza. Relatively bearish calls from the US Energy Information Administration, saying that US crude output is unlikely to surpass the current level of 13.3 million b/d until early 2025, have also buoyed oil prices, with Brent poised to end the week slightly below $82 per barrel.

Devon Energy to Kick Off 2024 M&A Season. US oil producer Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) has reportedly approached Enerplus, a Calgary-headquartered upstream firm mostly focused on Bakken and Marcellus, with an acquisition offer that could go up to $3 billion.

India Courts Guyana for Oil Deals. The Indian government is seeking a multi-year oil purchase deal with Guyana and would be keen to buy into exploration blocks there, suggesting India’s state-owned companies might pick up some of the relinquished parts of the Stabroek block.

Sweden Doesn’t Want to Say Who Blew Up Nord Stream. Swedish authorities dropped their probe into the 2022 explosions on Nord Stream pipelines, saying they lacked jurisdiction on the case, and handed over collected evidence to Germany which is still carrying out its investigation. 

ExxonMobil Plays with Venezuelan Fire. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) announced it would drill two exploratory wells north and west of its Stabroek block in the Essequibo offshore area disputed by Venezuela, triggering the ire of Caracas and raising tensions in the region again. 

Australia’s Giant Merger Collapses Amid Shareholder Pressure. Australia’s leading oil producers Woodside (ASX:WDS) and Santos (ASX:STO) called off their $52 billion merger as the two companies couldn’t agree on a valuation level and failed to pass due diligence. 

First Time in Six Years, Palladium Prices Fall Below Platinum. Palladium prices fell below the platinum price for the first time since April 2018 this week, dropping to $870 per troy ounce, as the automotive sector has been increasingly going for cheaper platinum option. 

Joining Shell, TotalEnergies Eyes Onshore Nigeria Sale. France’s energy major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) is expected to unveil its divestment of onshore Nigerian assets, most notably a 10% stake in the heretofore Shell-operated SPDC, whilst keeping gas projects in the Niger Delta.

Europe’s Wind Generation Beats Gas in 2023. Europe’s wind power generation surpassed natural gas last year, accounting for 18% of the continent’s supply and only losing out to nuclear, however, gas’ 15% year-on-year drop might rebound this year as prices fell below $10/mmBtu.

Activists Target LME for Trading Indonesian Copper. Two activist groups filed a legal action against the London Metal Exchange for allowing the sale of copper from the Freeport McMoran-operated (NYSE:FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia, allegedly polluting water sources with waste.

Brushing Aside Demand Worries, US Driving Hits Record. The US Transportation Department reported that travel on American roads rose 2.1% to 3.263 trillion miles, setting an all-time high, as offices and federal agencies prompted workers to return amid lower gasoline prices. 

Green Hydrogen Impact to Be a Part of LNG Assessments. The White House stated that the pause in LNG terminal approvals should weigh the impact of new gas projects on the green hydrogen market, saying the regulatory revamp should take months not years. 

Germany Mulls Nationalization of Russian-Owned Refinery. The German government said it is investigating the option of expropriating Rosneft Deutschland, a subsidiary of Russia’s state-run oil company that holds shares in three German plants and operates the Schwedt refinery.

Mexico’s Next Best Thing Delayed Again. Mexico’s embattled national oil firm Pemex delayed the launch of its largest untapped asset, the 675 MMbbls Zama field originally discovered by Talos Energy (NYSE:TALO), by one year to 2026 citing the need for further engineering appraisal. 

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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