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The Japanification of the US economy | TheHill – The Hill

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In the 1990s, Japan suffered a lost economic decade of highly disappointing economic growth and price deflation. It did so in the aftermath of the bursting of its massive equity and property market bubble. One has to wonder whether the U.S. might now be setting itself up for a decade of poor economic performance by allowing unusually large bubbles to once again form in its asset and credit markets and by throwing caution to the wind in the management of its public finances.  

Even before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. economy displayed troubling signs of Japanification. Following the 2008 bursting of its housing and credit market bubble, the United States experienced its slowest economic recovery on record while inflation remained consistently below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target.

Meanwhile, its highly leveraged companies borrowed heavily at very low interest rate spreads, and the country seemed to have lost any constituency for budget discipline on both sides of the political aisle. Republican administrations proved to be very keen to cut taxes but were loath to cut public spending. Meanwhile, Democratic administrations proved eager to raise public spending but were hesitant to raise taxes. The net result was that the country now finds itself saddled with a record budget deficit and on an unsustainable public debt path.

The excessively expansive U.S. monetary and fiscal policy response to last year’s once-in-a-century health crisis makes it all too likely that in the years immediately ahead the Japanification of the U.S. economy will pick up pace.

By increasing the size of its balance sheet in less than a year by more than $4 trillion through its aggressive bond-buying program and by keeping interest rates at ultra-low levels, the Federal Reserve has created a troubling “everything” bubble in the U.S. equity, housing and debt markets. U.S. equity valuations are now more than double their long-term average and at lofty levels experienced only once before in the last 100 years.

Meanwhile, housing prices now well exceed their 2006 peak level and continue to increase by around 15 percent, while high-yield debt interest rate spreads are now close to their all-time lows.

By providing budget stimulus of as much as 12 percent of GDP in 2021 at a time that the Fed has its monetary policy pedal to the metal and that the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the country’s output gap is only some 3 percent, the Biden administration has increased the risk of economic overheating and persistently high inflation by year end. At the same time, far from thinking about long-term budget consolidation to restore public debt sustainability, Biden is rushing through Congress an improperly funded $1 trillion infrastructure spending bill and a $3.5 trillion anti-poverty and climate control package. This has to heighten the risk of high budget deficits and an unsustainable debt path for as far as the eye can see.

With inflation already picking up to a level not experienced in the past 30 years and to a level that is more than twice the Fed’s inflation target, it has to be only a matter of time before the Fed is forced to slam on the monetary policy brakes to meet its inflation objective. The Fed will do so first by tapering its bond-buying program and then by raising interest rates. That in turn is more than likely to burst the “everything” asset and credit market bubble, which has been premised on the assumption that ultra-low interest rates will last forever. It is also likely to worsen the country’s public finances as tax revenue receipts are bound to be adversely impacted by another leg down in the economy that the bursting of today’s asset and credit market bubbles will entail.

In much the same way as the bursting of its property and equity bubble in the early 1990s cost Japan a lost economic decade, the bursting of the U.S. “everything” bubble must be expected to usher in a prolonged period of disappointing economic growth, low inflation, unusually large budget deficits, the proliferation of zombie companies and yet another round of Fed quantitative easing. That is bound to increase the Japanification of the U.S. economy that already seems to be well underway. 

Desmond Lachman is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He was formerly a deputy director in the International Monetary Fund’s Policy Development and Review Department and the chief emerging market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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