In February, 3.12 per cent of U.S. commercial mortgages were delinquent, according to data tracker Trepp Inc.FangXiaNuo/iStockPhoto / Getty Images
The humdrum business of renting out offices and stores is suddenly in the spotlight as property experts and economists warn that growing problems in U.S. commercial real estate could trigger a new financial crisis.
Among the people raising alarms is Scott Rechler, chief executive officer of RXR Realty, a large property manager in New York, and a director of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
In a Twitter thread last week, Mr. Rechler warned that US$1.5-trillion in commercial real estate debt will mature over the next three years. Most of it was taken out when interest rates were near zero.
“This debt needs to be refinanced in an environment where rates are higher, values are lower,” and markets are less liquid, he wrote. If lenders balk or problems emerge, “we risk a systemic crisis with our banking system, particularly the regional banks which make up 80 per cent of [real estate] lending.”
Somewhat similarly Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, warned that a “doom loop” could emerge in which falling commercial real estate values feed back into the U.S. banking system, choking off lending and creating further declines in commercial property prices.
“Historically, problems in the property sector have been at the heart of major crises,” Mr. Shearing wrote. Examples include the 2007-08 financial crisis, the U.S. savings and loans debacle of the 1980s and 1990s, and the British secondary banking emergency of 1973-75.
The current situation would have to grow far, far worse to match those previous episodes. It does have its worrisome aspects, though. The potential problems start with the plight of office and mall landlords in the United States.
Both groups were already struggling to keep up with the accelerated shift to an online economy that began during the pandemic. Now they are suddenly facing much higher borrowing costs as a result of the big increase in interest rates over the past year.
Office landlords are looking particularly haggard. They have been hit hard by the widespread shift to work-from-home arrangements.
Mall landlords are also feeling some heat as online shopping shrinks retailers’ demand for physical space.
The stresses in the office and retail sectors are taking a toll on even the most sophisticated of operators. Blackstone Inc. BX-N, the giant U.S. asset manager, made headlines late last year when it started to enforce limits on how much investors could withdraw from a private real estate investment trust designed for wealthy individuals.
The need to impose such restrictions speaks to how nervous those investors are growing about the prospects for commercial real estate and how many of them would like to head out the door.
Growing stresses in commercial real estate were further highlighted in February when Brookfield Corp. BN-T, the big Canadian asset manager, defaulted on loans tied to two office buildings in Los Angeles.
Such cases could multiply. In the U.S., the majority of lending to the commercial real estate sector comes from smaller banks that cater to a specific region instead of the entire country. The recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank, one of the larger of these regional institutions, has created concern about whether depositors may start to edge away from smaller lenders.
If depositors were to grow nervous and decide to transfer their savings to money market funds or larger banks, regional banks could be forced to suddenly curtail their lending to the real estate sector.
This would be no small matter. Cumulatively, regional U.S. banks have US$1.9-trillion in loans to commercial real estate operators on their balance sheets, according to Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at Capital Economics.
The stresses at regional banks and the problems in commercial real estate could interact in nasty ways, Mr. Ashworth warned in a recent note.
“An adverse feedback loop” would begin with regional U.S. banks reining in their lending to commercial real estate operators. These tighter lending standards could cause more defaults in commercial real estate. That would drive down the value of commercial properties, forcing regional banks to increase their provisions for loan losses, triggering an even greater tightening in bank lending standards. And so on.
“In a worst-case scenario, we could have a rolling crisis that lasts for years,” Mr. Ashworth wrote.
Still, it’s far from certain that the worst case will materialize.
For one thing, the commercial real estate sector is made up of several distinct subsectors. While office and retail landlords are struggling, some other areas, such as industrial properties, have held up just fine, while still others, such as hotel properties, are actually seeing conditions improve as the economy reopens and travel resumes.
Taken as a whole, the commercial real estate sector doesn’t look so bad. Delinquent mortgages – that is, those on which payments have been overdue for at least 30 days – are rising in number, but the statistics are still a long way from panic levels.
In February, 3.12 per cent of U.S. commercial mortgages were delinquent, according to data tracker Trepp Inc. That is slightly higher than the 2.98 per cent recorded six months earlier but far below the record 10.34 per cent recorded in July, 2012.
Could heavy exposure to troubled office and mall landlords bring down some regional lenders? Maybe, but analysts aren’t sounding any alarms yet.
According to the Financial Times, the credit research team at JPMorgan recently ran a simulation exercise in which they assumed that regional banks take a 9-per-cent loss on their total office exposure and 6 per cent on retail. They concluded that the losses would barely dent the banks’ capital ratios, although they would weigh on earnings for as long as the losses persist.
This sounds painful. It doesn’t sound like a new financial crisis, though. At least, not yet.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.
The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.
The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.
The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.
QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.
Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
In the quest to find cities where renters can enjoy the best of all worlds, a recent study analyzed 24 metrics across three key categories—Housing & Economy, Quality of Life, and Community. The study ranked the 100 largest cities in Canada to determine which ones offer the most to their renters.
Here are the top 10 cities that emerged as the best for renters in 2024:
St. John’s, NL
St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, stand out as the top city for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its vibrant cultural scene, stunning natural beauty, and welcoming community, St. John’s offers an exceptional quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing, a robust economy, and low unemployment rates, making it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching living experience. Its rich history, picturesque harbour, and dynamic arts scene further enhance its appeal, ensuring that renters can enjoy both comfort and excitement in this charming coastal city.
Sherbrooke, QC
Sherbrooke, Quebec, emerges as a leading city for renters in Canada for 2024, offering a blend of affordability and quality of life. Nestled in the heart of the Eastern Townships, Sherbrooke is known for its picturesque landscapes, vibrant cultural scene, and strong community spirit. The city provides affordable rental options, low living costs, and a thriving local economy, making it an ideal destination for those seeking both comfort and economic stability. With its rich history, numerous parks, and dynamic arts and education sectors, Sherbrooke presents an inviting environment for renters looking for a well-rounded lifestyle.
Québec City, QC
Québec City, the capital of Quebec, stands out as a premier destination for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its rich history, stunning architecture, and vibrant cultural heritage, this city offers an exceptional quality of life. Renters benefit from affordable housing, excellent public services, and a robust economy. The city’s charming streets, historic sites, and diverse culinary scene provide a unique living experience. With top-notch education institutions, numerous parks, and a strong sense of community, Québec City is an ideal choice for those seeking a dynamic and fulfilling lifestyle.
Trois-Rivières, QC
Trois-Rivières, nestled between Montreal and Quebec City, emerges as a top choice for renters in Canada. This historic city, known for its picturesque riverside views and rich cultural scene, offers an appealing blend of affordability and quality of life. Renters in Trois-Rivières enjoy reasonable housing costs, a low unemployment rate, and a vibrant community atmosphere. The city’s well-preserved historic sites, bustling arts community, and excellent educational institutions make it an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Saguenay, QC
Saguenay, located in the stunning Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region of Quebec, is a prime destination for renters seeking affordable living amidst breathtaking natural beauty. Known for its picturesque fjords and vibrant cultural scene, Saguenay offers residents a high quality of life with lower housing costs compared to major urban centers. The city boasts a strong sense of community, excellent recreational opportunities, and a growing economy. For those looking to combine affordability with a rich cultural and natural environment, Saguenay stands out as an ideal choice.
Granby, QC
Granby, nestled in the heart of Quebec’s Eastern Townships, offers renters a delightful blend of small-town charm and ample opportunities. Known for its beautiful parks, vibrant cultural scene, and family-friendly environment, Granby provides an exceptional quality of life. The city’s affordable housing market and strong sense of community make it an attractive option for those seeking a peaceful yet dynamic place to live. With its renowned zoo, bustling downtown, and numerous outdoor activities, Granby is a hidden gem that caters to a diverse range of lifestyles.
Fredericton, NB
Fredericton, the capital city of New Brunswick, offers renters a harmonious blend of historical charm and modern amenities. Known for its vibrant arts scene, beautiful riverfront, and welcoming community, Fredericton provides an excellent quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing options, scenic parks, and a strong educational presence with institutions like the University of New Brunswick. Its rich cultural heritage, coupled with a thriving local economy, makes Fredericton an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and fulfilling lifestyle.
Saint John, NB
Saint John, New Brunswick’s largest city, is a coastal gem known for its stunning waterfront and rich heritage. Nestled on the Bay of Fundy, it offers renters an affordable cost of living with a unique blend of historic architecture and modern conveniences. The city’s vibrant uptown area is bustling with shops, restaurants, and cultural attractions, while its scenic parks and outdoor spaces provide ample opportunities for recreation. Saint John’s strong sense of community and economic growth make it an inviting place for those looking to enjoy both urban and natural beauty.
Saint-Hyacinthe, QC
Saint-Hyacinthe, located in the Montérégie region of Quebec, is a vibrant city known for its strong agricultural roots and innovative spirit. Often referred to as the “Agricultural Technopolis,” it is home to numerous research centers and educational institutions. Renters in Saint-Hyacinthe benefit from a high quality of life with access to excellent local amenities, including parks, cultural events, and a thriving local food scene. The city’s affordable housing and close-knit community atmosphere make it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Lévis, QC
Lévis, located on the southern shore of the St. Lawrence River across from Quebec City, offers a unique blend of historical charm and modern conveniences. Known for its picturesque views and well-preserved heritage sites, Lévis is a city where history meets contemporary living. Residents enjoy a high quality of life with excellent public services, green spaces, and cultural activities. The city’s affordable housing options and strong sense of community make it a desirable place for renters looking for both tranquility and easy access to urban amenities.
This category looked at factors such as average rent, housing costs, rental availability, and unemployment rates. Québec stood out with 10 cities ranking at the top, demonstrating strong economic stability and affordable housing options, which are critical for renters looking for cost-effective living conditions.
Québec again led the pack in this category, with five cities in the top 10. Ontario followed closely with three cities. British Columbia excelled in walkability, with four cities achieving the highest walk scores, while Caledon topped the list for its extensive green spaces. These factors contribute significantly to the overall quality of life, making these cities attractive for renters.
Victoria, BC, emerged as the leader in this category due to its rich array of restaurants, museums, and educational institutions, offering a vibrant community life. St. John’s, NL, and Vancouver, BC, also ranked highly. Québec City, QC, and Lévis, QC, scored the highest in life satisfaction, reflecting a strong sense of community and well-being. Additionally, Saskatoon, SK, and Oshawa, ON, were noted for having residents with lower stress levels.
For a comprehensive view of the rankings and detailed interactive visuals, you can visit the full study by Point2Homes.
While no city can provide a perfect living experience for every renter, the cities highlighted in this study come remarkably close by excelling in key areas such as housing affordability, quality of life, and community engagement. These findings offer valuable insights for renters seeking the best places to live in Canada in 2024.
:format(jpeg)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tgam/KQOBNX2NEBFU7HXSNSUBB3LDVU.jpg)
