President Donald Trump was being his usual self on Friday. This time, he was blasting New York governor Andrew Cuomo during a live press conference on his Twitter feed, practically demanding Cuomo thank him for all he’s done. Instead, Cuomo said Trump should be at work, not watching TV, and not on Twitter.

Regardless, this week we moved beyond the fears of hospital exhaustion rates and COVID-19 patients unable to get a ventilator to calls to “liberate Michigan” and other states.

It will all be politicized. Markets won’t care.

So long as governors are coming up with plans for a gradual re-opening, as well as the White House, then investors will confirm among themselves — with increasing surety — that there is light shining through the cracks. We can dig ourselves out of this hole.

It’s a hole that Ray Dalio, famed hedge fund manager from Bridgewater Associates, said this week in Bloomberg webinar has cost the U.S. around $5 trillion in lost wages.

On April 14, St. Louis Fed Chief Jim Bullard made the case for a V-shaped recovery once the economy is open, and millions furloughed get their jobs back.

In a webcast with the St. Louis Regional Chamber, Bullard said, “There is no reason the economy can’t come back in a V shape. I know it’s become popular to say that is not going to happen. I think it can happen.”

According to Bullard’s vision of the near-term future, the U.S. will adopt a variant of Asia’s mitigation methods of using widespread testing, social distancing and vigilance to contain the virus spread in a gradual re-open.

“As incidents of the disease go way down, then I think you should be able to reopen,” Bullard said. “Ideally you would like to test everybody. If you can’t test everybody, you are going to have to use relatively crude substitutes, like taking everybody’s temperature.”

Bullard’s comments pleased Wall Street and was a welcome note of optimism in contrast to doom-and-gloom projections of rolling shutdowns as offered by Minnesota Fed Chief Neel Kashkari on “60 Minutes” on April 5.

Then again, that was prior to “hell week”. That was the week that was supposed to be one part September 11 terrorist attack, one part Pearl Harbor. Luckily, that did not happen as mitigation efforts are clearly having the desired effect on the viral spread.

Wall Street Ready. Main Street Wary, But Hopeful

Markets have been ahead of the curve.

Since bottoming on March 23, the S&P has rallied about 24%. The bear market in equities is over for now. The Dow is down 17% from its February 19 high.

On April 16, the Trump Administration issued their own guidelines to enable individual states to reopen. Some states were already coordinating on this, even as New York and Connecticut extended the lockdown until mid May.

Under the guidelines, states are asked to reopen one step at a time, rather than all at once. The main policies and timelines are up to individual governors, with the White House Coronavirus Task Force providing guidelines.

Better yet, the guidelines were approved by Task Force medical leaders Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, making it harder for Trump’s opponents to lay blame on him should COVID-19 death rates continue unabated post-quarantine. This is on doctors Fauci and Birx, too.

A recent Gallup poll suggests the vast majority have grown accustomed to the lockdowns and do not want to press their luck in opening too soon.

According to pollsters at Ipsos, U.S. consumer confidence has been stagnant since it declined precipitously in the third week of March as the COVID-19 pandemic led to millions of job losses.

Their latest survey, conducted on April 14 and 15, shows that while the mood is depressing, people remain hopeful.

Consumer confidence dropped to 45.1 on their index ranging on a scale of 1 to 100 from 46 a month ago. That’s down 18 points from where it was in January, an 18-year high at the time. It’s also down from where it was in March, at 60.1.

Confidence in one’s personal financial situation, the local economy and employment six months from now is 60.2, about three points lower than where it was in March and on par with historical averages.

In percentage terms, 71% said they are less comfortable buying big ticket items today than they were six months ago. That number has been relatively flat over the last two weeks.

Gallup.comAmericans Remain Risk Averse About Getting Back to Normal

Artificial Deadline: Memorial Day Weekend

The battle to re-open the economy is happening around the world.

In Brazil, the battle to open it happened right at the time it was being closed.

Brazil’s version of Fauci, Health Minister Luiz Mandetta, was let go this week due to disagreements on how to balance fighting the viral spread, and keeping Brazilians — many of them who were sent back to the poor house after two years of economic recession — gainfully employed. Brazil does not have the money to pay for millions of unemployed people like the U.S. and Europe.

In Europe, they are gradually re-opening in certain areas of Italy and Austria. The German’s are, too, but they are fighting over dates.

China has been open, but in fits and starts. They are setting an example for what the rest of the world can expect once they get back to work.

In deciding to postpone New York state’s opening until May 15, Governor Cuomo stated that he wants to see infection rates fall lower on the infection curve first.

Some 28,823 people have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. as of Friday, with another 4,226 having COVID-19 as a probable cause, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Over 22 million people have been laid off nationwide, with many of them expected to return to work once the economy gets going again.

Others have taken wage cuts and lost bonuses for the year, which is the equivalent of a wage cut. Those won’t be coming back.

Once the economies do re-open, no one is expecting to see crowded restaurants, bars and planes anytime soon. Like the gradual opening of the economy, people will gradually get over their fears of catching COVID-19.

As scientists and the medical community share ideas about what they know of the disease, and how to treat it, there will be less unknowns, ushering in a return to normalcy.

I have Memorial Day weekend as what I call my “pitchforks and torches” date.

If by then states are still in nearly full quarantine, with people banned from gathering on beaches and restaurants still closed, my guess is that small business owners, and individuals will increasingly lose their patience.

Some protests already occurred this week, though I do not know who organized them. Attendees were quickly dismissed as the usual cast of right wingers supporting Trump’s call to re-open.

Memorial Day weekend is the official start of the important summer business season for numerous cities from Kennebunkport to Provincetown; Myrtle Beach to Kissimmee and Orlando, Florida. The call for a return to normal will get louder there as many shop owners survive the year on Memorial Day to Labor Day consumer spending.

Who will see a continued need for strict quarantine measures if governors are saying their hospitals are in the clear? Protecting hospitals from a surge in COVID-19 patients was the main reason for the quarantine measures.

If Wall Street’s rising, but Main Street is closed, it creates more wealth for those heavily invested in the market, and is a loss of wealth for those dependent on wages to maintain their economic status.

That’s when coronavirus ceases to become a public health crisis, and it becomes a financial crisis because companies and individuals cannot pay their bills.

Instead of a financial crisis caused by bankers gambling on mortgage-backed derivatives like in 2008, it’s one forced upon the masses to protect them from an unknown virus. People get that. But when the pandemic is over, the socio-economic and political crisis will last longer if the economy remains in intensive care.

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