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Behind Canada’s reluctance to meet NATO’s spending target

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3 months ago

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There was an unscripted moment during a panel debate in Toronto last month that could go a long way toward explaining Canada’s long-term reluctance to publicly and wholeheartedly embrace NATO’s guideline for members’ defence spending.

Appearing on a panel at the Eurasia’s group’s U.S.-Canada Summit, the typically unflappable Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly was asked pointedly how Ottawa could be considered a reliable ally when it appears unable — or unwilling — to meet the western military alliance’s benchmark of spending at least two per cent of GDP on defence.

Offering up a dash of realpolitik, the moderator spoke about the enduring debate over the value of hard (military) power versus soft (diplomatic, development) power and said that at the end of the day, “hard power is what tends to shake out promises in the world” from other countries.

Joly was having none of it.

Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, left, and her Swedish counterpart Tobias Billström hold a joint news conference in Stockholm, Sweden on Wednesday, May 29, 2024. (Anders Wiklund/AP)

“That’s your assessment,” she said. “We believe in the international rules-based order where rules must be followed, and, you know, small and big countries have the same rules that they have to follow.”

The suggestion that hard power is somehow an affront to the “international rules based order” — that jargony mouthful governments (especially Canada’s) like to invoke — speaks volumes.

The philosophical argument against hard power is not something that has been widely discussed in the often circular debate about NATO’s expectations of member states.

Without question, most governments — regardless of their political stripe — would prefer to spend money on something other than defence. But the fact remains that over the seven-and-a-half decades since NATO was created, NATO allies’ defence spending has tended to rise in times of heightened international tensions and fall in better times.

That’s the way the much-discussed “rules-based international order” has worked up to now to keep the world a few steps back from calamity.

Joly’s answer also indirectly peels back the curtain (somewhat) on what several sources within Global Affairs Canada say was at the root of the delayed delivery of the country’s long-awaited Indo-Pacific strategy.

The federal government was looking for a way — any way — to avoid making the Canadian military the county’s calling card in a region where allies were clamouring for a more visible defence commitment, defence and foreign affairs sources told CBC News.

When it was released in late 2022, the Indo-Pacific strategy bowed awkwardly toward realpolitik with a significant military component, which included a boost to Canada’s naval presence and military participation in the region.

Naval ships from the Royal Canadian Navy, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Republic of Korea Navy sail in formation alongside HMA Ships Sydney and Perth during Exercise Pacific Vanguard during a Regional Presence Deployment on Aug. 22, 2022. The Chinese navy's "unusual behavior" in shadowing Australian warships in the South China Sea had not deterred operations in the contested waters, Australia's navy chief, Vice Admiral Mark Hammond said, Friday Sept. 9, 2022.
Naval ships from the Royal Canadian Navy, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Republic of Korea Navy sail in formation alongside HMA Ships Sydney and Perth during Exercise Pacific Vanguard on Aug. 22, 2022. (LSIS David Cox/Royal Australian Navy via AP)

But even when confronted with the brutal reality of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Canada’s government tends to tilt away from expressions of hard power.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told a think-tank in Berlin in March of 2022 that he believed Moscow’s war machine could be brought to its knees solely through the use of sanctions — as though soft power could somehow stop a Russian tank.

He told the non-profit association Atlantik-Brücke at the Munich Security Conference that since the Second World War, the international community had developed “more and better tools” to deal with international aggression — a reference to economic sanctions, which Trudeau said can be far more effective than “tanks and missiles.”

Appearing last spring on a panel at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, Defence Minister Bill Blair offered a broader glimpse of how widespread this skepticism about hard power is within the federal government. He told the audience that meeting the NATO spending benchmark has been a tough sell at the cabinet table.

“Trying to go to cabinet, or even to Canadians, and tell them that we had to do this because we need to meet this magical threshold of two per cent — don’t get me wrong, it’s important, but it was really hard to convince people that that was a worthy goal, that that was some noble standard that we had to meet,” he said.

National Defence Minister Bill Blair tells Power & Politics Canada ‘still has work to do’ to meet NATO’s 2 per cent spending target but he’s ‘confident’ Ottawa will get there.

In Washington on Monday, speaking before a foreign policy audience in advance of this week’s NATO summit, Blair was slightly more bullish. He repeated his claim that uncosted, unannounced additional equipment purchases, such as an investment in new submarines, will push the country toward or over the two per cent mark.

“I think we have a very aggressive plan to move forward,” Blair said. “I’m very confident that it’s going to bring us to that threshold.”

But by his own admission, Blair is going to face an uphill battle within cabinet and with voters who see defence spending as wasteful.

Kerry Buck, Canada’s former ambassador to NATO, said it’s wrong to subscribe to the notion that the military exists only to go out and kill people.

“You don’t want to have to use the military,” Buck said.

“You have the military so nobody has to go out and kill people because it acts as a deterrent. So arguing that investing in hard power means you have to use the hard power and the hard power way, I think, ignores the deterrent effect.”

Speaking in Ottawa, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he will work to ensure that all allies meet the defence spending benchmark of two per cent of GDP, including Canada.

She said that while diplomacy is the first line of defence for any civilized nation, successive federal governments over the past two decades have not invested in foreign affairs to any great degree.

Andrew Rasiulis, a former senior official at the Department of National Defence (DND) who once ran the department’s Directorate of Nuclear and Arms Control Policy, said a reluctance to be seen employing hard power is deeply rooted in the Canadian psyche.

“It’s the Boy Scout thing,” Rasiulis said. “It’s what Liberals love, right? And it’s their constituents who love that.”

He said that while he’s not entirely convinced the Liberal government is philosophically driven by the need to invest in defence, it clearly has put more money into the military.

Rasiulis sees the reluctance to embrace the two per cent metric as pragmatic politics for a minority government — something he doesn’t believe would change if the government changes hands next year.

“It’s butter before guns,” he said, referring to the age-old political maxim that describes an either-or relationship between defence and social spending.

“I’m not sure that the policy of the government would be radically different if the government were to change. You haven’t heard [Conservative Leader] Pierre Pollievre pledged to do two per cent either,” he said.

“They may have stronger words, like Conservatives generally do. And as we know, the Conservative records sometimes fall short.”

 

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Harris and Lizzo praise Detroit – in contrast to Trump – ahead of an Atlanta rally with Usher

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5 hours ago

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October 19, 2024

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DETROIT (AP) — Vice President Kamala Harris appeared with Lizzo on Saturday in the singer’s hometown of Detroit, marking the beginning of in-person voting and lavishing the city with praise after Republican nominee Donald Trump recently disparaged it.

“All the best things were made in Detroit. Coney Dogs, Faygo and Lizzo,” the singer joked to a rally crowd, pointing to herself after listing off the meat-on-a-stick and soda that the city is famous for.

She said it was time to “put some respect on Detroit’s name” noting that the city had revolutionized the auto and music industries and adding that she’d already cast her ballot for Harris since voting early was “a power move.”

Heaps of praise for the Motor City came after Trump, the former president, insulted it during a recent campaign stop. And Harris continued the theme, saying of her campaign, “Like the people of Detroit, we have grit, we have excellence, we have history.”

Arms wide open as she took the stage, Harris let the crowd see she was wearing under her blazer a “Detroit vs. Everybody” T-shirt that the owner of the business that produces them gave her during a previous stop in the city earlier in the week. She also moved around the stage during her speech with a hand-held mic, not using a teleprompter.

More than 1 million Michigan residents have already voted by mail in the Nov. 5 election, and Harris predicted that Detroit turnout for early voting would be strong.

“Who is the capital of producing records?” Harris asked when imploring the crowd to set new highs for early voting tallies. “We are going to break some records here in Detroit today.”

She slammed Trump as unstable: “Somebody just needs to watch his rallies, if you’re not really sure how to vote.”

“We’re not going to get these 17 days back. On Election Day, we don’t want to have any regrets,” the vice president said.

Lizzo also told the crowd, “Mrs. Commander-in-Chief has a nice ring to it.”

“This is the swing state of all swing states, so every last vote here counts,” the singer said. Then, referencing her song of the same title, Lizzo added, “If you ask me if America is ready for its first woman president, I only have one thing to say: “It’s about damn time!”

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley said in a statement that Harris needed Lizzo “to hide the fact that Michiganders were feeling good under President Trump – real wages were higher, prices were lower, and everyone was better off.”

Talona Johnson, a product manager from Rochester, Michigan, attended Harris rally and said that Harris “and her team are doing the things that are required to make sure that people are informed.”

“I believe she’s telling the truth. She’s trying to help the people,” said Johnson, who said she planned to vote for Harris and saw women’s rights as her top concern.

“I don’t necessarily agree with everything that she’s put out, but she’s better than the alternative,”

In comments to reporters prior to the rally, Harris said she was in Detroit “to thank all the folks for the work they are doing to help organize and register people to vote, and get them out to vote today. She also called Detroit “a great American city” with “a lot of hard-working folks that have grit and ambition and deserve to be respected.”

The vice president was asked about whether the Biden administration’s full-throated support for Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza might hurt her support in Michigan. Dearborn, near Detroit, is the largest city with an Arab majority in the nation.

“It has never been easy,” Harris said of Middle East policy. “But that doesn’t mean we give up.”

She will get more star power later Saturday when she holds a rally in Atlanta featuring another wildly popular singer, Usher.

Early voting is also underway in Georgia. More than 1.2 million ballots have been cast, either in person or by mail.

Democrats hope an expansive organizing effort will boost Harris against Trump in the campaign’s final weeks.

___

Associated Press writers Matt Brown in Detroit and Will Weissert and Fatima Hussein in Washington contributed.

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Moe visiting Yorkton as Saskatchewan election campaign continues

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1 day ago

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October 18, 2024

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Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is set to be on the road today as the provincial election campaign continues.

Moe is set to speak in the city of Yorkton about affordability measures this morning before travelling to the nearby village of Theodore for an event with the local Saskatchewan Party candidate.

NDP Leader Carla Beck doesn’t have any events scheduled, though several party candidates are to hold press conferences.

On Thursday, Moe promised a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected.

The NDP said the Saskatchewan Party was punching down on vulnerable children.

Election day is Oct. 28.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan Party’s Moe pledges change room ban in schools; Beck calls it desperate

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2 days ago

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October 17, 2024

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is promising a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected, a move the NDP’s Carla Beck says weaponizes vulnerable kids.

Moe made the pledge Thursday at a campaign stop in Regina. He said it was in response to a complaint that two biological males had changed for gym class with girls at a school in southeast Saskatchewan.

He said the ban would be his first order of business if he’s voted again as premier on Oct. 28.

It was not previously included in his party’s campaign platform document.

“I’ll be very clear, there will be a directive that would come from the minister of education that would say that biological boys will not be in the change room with biological girls,” Moe said.

He added school divisions should already have change room policies, but a provincial directive would ensure all have the rule in place.

Asked about the rights of gender-diverse youth, Moe said other children also have rights.

“What about the rights of all the other girls that are changing in that very change room? They have rights as well,” he said, followed by cheers and claps.

The complaint was made at a school with the Prairie Valley School Division. The division said in a statement it doesn’t comment on specific situations that could jeopardize student privacy and safety.

“We believe all students should have the opportunity to learn and grow in a safe and welcoming learning environment,” it said.

“Our policies and procedures align with the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the Canadian Human Rights Act and the Saskatchewan Human Rights Code.”

Asked about Moe’s proposal, Beck said it would make vulnerable kids more vulnerable.

Moe is desperate to stoke fear and division after having a bad night during Wednesday’s televised leaders’ debate, she said.

“Saskatchewan people, when we’re at our best, are people that come together and deliver results, not divisive, ugly politics like we’ve seen time and again from Scott Moe and the Sask. Party,” Beck said.

“If you see leaders holding so much power choosing to punch down on vulnerable kids, that tells you everything you need to know about them.”

Beck said voters have more pressing education issues on their minds, including the need for smaller classrooms, more teaching staff and increased supports for students.

People also want better health care and to be able to afford gas and groceries, she added.

“We don’t have to agree to understand Saskatchewan people deserve better,” Beck said.

The Saskatchewan Party government passed legislation last year that requires parents consent to children under 16 using different names or pronouns at school.

The law has faced backlash from some LGBTQ+ advocates, who argue it violates Charter rights and could cause teachers to out or misgender children.

Beck has said if elected her party would repeal that legislation.

Heather Kuttai, a former commissioner with the Saskatchewan Human Rights Commission who resigned last year in protest of the law, said Moe is trying to sway right-wing voters.

She said a change room directive would put more pressure on teachers who already don’t have enough educational support.

“It sounds like desperation to me,” she said.

“It sounds like Scott Moe is nervous about the election and is turning to homophobic and transphobic rhetoric to appeal to far-right voters.

“It’s divisive politics, which is a shame.”

She said she worries about the future of gender-affirming care in a province that once led in human rights.

“We’re the kind of people who dig each other out of snowbanks and not spew hatred about each other,” she said. “At least that’s what I want to still believe.”

Also Thursday, two former Saskatchewan Party government members announced they’re endorsing Beck — Mark Docherty, who retired last year and was a Speaker, and Glen Hart, who retired in 2020.

Ian Hanna, a speech writer and senior political adviser to former Saskatchewan Party premier Brad Wall, also endorsed Beck.

Earlier in the campaign, Beck received support from former Speaker Randy Weekes, who quit the Saskatchewan Party earlier this year after accusing caucus members of bullying.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

— With files from Aaron Sousa in Edmonton

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