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The Politics Behind Erdogan's Central Bank Decision – Bloomberg

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On the same day that Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sacked Naci Agbal, his third central bank governor in two years, he also announced Turkey’s exit from the Istanbul Convention, a Council of Europe agreement designed to protect women. Both decisions immediately drew international criticism, but they are best understood in the context of domestic politics — and specifically, Erdogan’s re-election campaign.

Turkey is not required to go to the ballot box before 2023, for both presidential and parliamentary polls. But the president seems to have decided to hold an early vote to alter the dynamics of the political landscape. That is the only way to explain recent moves, including the decision by the public prosecutor to close down the second largest opposition party, the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party.

Erdogan’s prospects aren’t looking good: Opinion polls show a steady decline in support for his Justice and Development Party. The March survey by the polling agency Research Istanbul placed the ruling party’s  share of the vote below 30% for the first time since almost two decades.

The numbers reflect a growing perception among Turks that their leader of 18 years has mismanaged the economy. Per capita income has been on a declining trend since the 2013 peak of $12,000 in nominal terms; in 2020 it had declined to $7,700. The hyper centralization of power introduced by the transition to a presidential system in 2018 has handicapped governance. Decision-making has become less predictable, creating uncertainties for economic agents domestic and foreign. As a result, private investments have dropped, making it harder for the government to cope with rising unemployment.

To stand any chance of stretching his rule into a third decade, Erdogan needs to change the status quo — and his decisions over the weekend are designed to do just that. The president blames Agbal’s positive interest-rate policy, which led Turkey to adopt the second-highest nominal interest rate in the OECD after Argentina, for hindering economic recovery and job creation, and consequently his popular support. Sahap Kavcioglu, the new governor, is a former lawmaker from his party and a firm believer in the Erdogan orthodoxy that high interest rates cause inflation.

With a pliant new governor at the helm of the bank, Erdogan is likely to return to expansionary monetary policy, easing credit conditions and lending practices. In his view, a credit stimulus is essential for an economic rebound.

The market begs to differ: The lira and stocks both plunged on Monday. Investors believe that credit-fueled growth is at the root of the economy’s underlying vulnerabilities, and expect a cycle of currency depreciation, inflationary pressures and shortfall in capital flows. If the lira comes under sustained pressure, the government will further deplete its reserves to shore it up.

Ironically, by forcing a reversal in monetary policy and undermining the independence of the central bank, Erdogan may have imperiled his election prospects.

 Nor is it clear that his decision to abandon the Istanbul Convention will turn the tide in his favor. Paradoxically, the agreement was originally Ankara’s brainchild. It was championed by Turkey within the Council of Europe and eventually turned into a multilateral agreement at the Summit of the European organization held in Istanbul back in 2011.

By pulling Turkey out of the agreement, the president is hoping to appeal to far-right Islamists whose suppose is critical to his reelection and who dislike the convention for its provisions designed to enhance the protection of minority lifestyles including LGBT rights.

The president has recently been lashing out at the LGBT community in his speeches. But there was little public support for a withdrawal from the agreement, especially at a time when the country is having difficulty in stemming violence again women. World Health Organization data show that 38% of women in Turkey are subject to violence from a partner in their lifetime, compared with about 25% in Europe. Erdogan’s opponents will undoubtedly use his withdrawal from the convention in their bid to draw women voters away from the president and his party.

Even for a politician with a penchant for high-risk, high-reward strategies, these two decisions represent major political gambles for Erdogan.

    This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

    To contact the author of this story:
    Sinan Ulgen at sulgen@edam.org.tr

    To contact the editor responsible for this story:
    Bobby Ghosh at aghosh73@bloomberg.net

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    ‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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    HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

    Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

    A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

    Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

    “If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

    In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

    “I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

    Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

    Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

    Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

    “I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

    “My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

    “Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

    Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

    “We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

    NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

    “I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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    REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

    Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

    She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

    Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

    Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

    The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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    HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

    Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

    “That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

    Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

    “I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

    The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

    In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

    “(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

    In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

    “The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

    Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

    Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

    “It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

    In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

    In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

    “Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

    Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

    “Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

    The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

    “That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

    Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

    “Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

    — With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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