Science
The race for climate change solutions leaves researchers divided
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A squadron of planes flies overhead, releasing trails of sulfur and other aerosols into the air. A fleet of ships traverses the ocean, spraying plumes of saltwater mist into the air. A wall of fans gently hums between grassy hills in the Icelandic countryside.
These images are not from a movie, they are very real concepts and technologies put forth by scientists in Apocalypse Plan B, a documentary from The Nature of Things.
We have entered a new era of combating climate change — with carbon capture and geoengineering technologies — where science fiction is becoming science fact.
Carbon and climate events
More than half of humanity’s CO2 emissions have been released into the atmosphere since 1990. Each year, more than 34 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide are pumped into the atmosphere — almost three gigatonnes a month, which amounts to enough carbon to fill New York’s Central Park with a mass of coal half a kilometre high.
As our carbon output continues, global temperatures increase, which disrupts weather patterns and results in higher temperatures, more intense storms, increased drought and warming oceans. These events have a cascading effect, leading to species loss, poverty and displacement.
Though we’re already witnessing some of these problems, climate scientist Michael Mann says we still have time. “The science tells us that it’s not too late to prevent the worst impacts of climate change if we reduce carbon emissions by 50 per cent within this decade,” he says. “It’s a tough task, but we can do it.”
Scientists are racing to find solutions to pull carbon from the atmosphere. Some have taken the more controversial approach of using human intervention to cool the planet, although this solution doesn’t come without consequences.
Climate change and inequality
David Keith, a Harvard University physicist, is in favour of intentionally increasing Earth’s reflectivity. His proposal involves a fleet of aircraft spraying sulfur and other aerosols into the atmosphere, where they would divert sunlight away, effectively cooling the planet. It’s a concept known as solar geoengineering.
This scientist has a proposal to fight climate change: intentionally release tonnes of sulphur gas into the stratosphere using aircraft, to dim the sun’s rays.
However, this strategy could affect Earth’s natural systems, disrupting plant productivity, ocean currents and atmospheric wind patterns, which could have an outsized impact on populations that depend on these systems for their livelihoods.
Climate inequality is a concern as temperatures continue to rise. Populations in low-income countries are more likely to experience consequences from climate change and the costs of mitigating it, namely by reducing emissions. These disproportionate impacts can further increase poverty in these communities.
But Keith insists climate justice is the basis for his idea, and that the reduction in temperatures would benefit those living in hot countries the most. But Indian scientist and environmental activist Vandana Shiva disagrees.
“You block the sun, what you’re basically doing is you’re cursing the 80 per cent of humanity and all the beings on this Earth who depend on the green leaf for their survival,” she says.
Shiva believes climate justice is about listening to those whose livelihoods depend on the natural environment rather than imposing solutions on them.
“We have not forgotten that colonialism began with the excuse of the white man’s burden,” she says.
Human intervention is only one of the ways scientists are exploring to cool the planet. Some researchers think the solution is not to fight our natural systems, but to work with them.
Natural options
The first mangrove forest that Lola Fatoyinbo ever visited as a graduate student was in Everglades National Park, Florida. “It’s actually one of my favorite sites in the whole world,” she says.
Fatoyinbo is an environmental scientist who likes looking at forests — a lot of forests.
Working with a team from NASA, she uses a combination of 3D scanning and satellite imagery to determine the density of forests around the world and their carbon content.
Fatoyinbo is one of the scientists who sees the planet’s natural systems as a solution for removing carbon from the atmosphere. During the spring and summer months in the Northern Hemisphere, carbon dioxide is pulled from the atmosphere as the Earth’s forests turn green once more, removing a significant amount of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.
When considering carbon-storage solutions, Fatoyinbo stresses the importance of these forests — especially mangrove forests.
“One of the really big advantages of mangroves is that they have a really high carbon-storage capacity,” she says. “Mangroves store about three to five times more carbon than a tropical rainforest. That’s really a huge amount of carbon, and this is just in the first metre of soil.”
As climate events worsen, Fatoyinbo is seeing the depletion of these carbon stores. Mangroves, which historically have been able to withstand storms and the rising sea level, are not able to tolerate the intensity and frequency of storms resulting from climate change, as they have less time to recuperate. Some become “ghost forests” — a haunting name for these ecosystems when they haven’t been able to recover and die.
“There’s no way to see what we’re seeing and not worry,” she says.
For Fatoyinbo, the protection of these forests is an essential step for removing carbon from the atmosphere. “[The] restoration of mangroves, forests and wetlands — these are really important mechanisms that are part of the fight,” she says.
Lola Fatoyinbo is a NASA research scientist who studies forest ecosystems from space. Using data gathered from instruments on the space station, she’s able to map the world’s forests, and the effect they have on our planet.
British environmental writer and activist George Monbiot agrees with Fatoyinbo’s approach.
“Our chances of getting through this century — let alone those that follow — depend to a very large extent on whether we can restore many of the world’s wild ecosystems,” he says.
According to Monbiot, the fastest way of removing carbon from the atmosphere is to turn it into solid carbon in the form of trees, wetlands and other ecosystems. However, this requires an understanding of how land is used, or rather misused.
Half of the world’s habitable land is used for agriculture, and Monbiot points out, “twenty-eight per cent of the planet’s terrestrial surface is used for keeping grazing livestock,” he says. “That extraordinary area … is used to produce just one per cent of the world’s protein. This is a phenomenally wasteful way of producing our food.”
Despite the bleakness, Monbiot feels there’s still time to change.
“It really is not too late because social change can happen at great speed,” he says.
Moving forward
Against a backdrop of extreme climate events, carbon buildup and indecision, time is running out, and these scientists know it. Whether by radical human intervention or protection of natural systems, they all agree that action is needed to slow the damage caused by climate change.
Mann wryly sums up the urgency of the situation: “The good thing is that if we screw up this planet, we’ve got another one to go to — Oh no, wait. No, we don’t. Do we?”
Science
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In a remarkable development, NASA has given the green light to the Dragonfly mission, a revolutionary rotorcraft designed to investigate the complex chemistry of Saturn‘s moon Titan.
This confirmation allows the mission to proceed with the final design, construction, and testing of the spacecraft and its scientific instruments.
Deciphering the prebiotic chemistry on Titan
The Dragonfly mission, led by Dr. Melissa Trainer of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, will carry a cutting-edge instrument called the Dragonfly Mass Spectrometer (DraMS).
This powerful tool will help scientists delve into the intricate chemistry at work on Titan, potentially shedding light on the chemical processes that led to the emergence of life on Earth, known as prebiotic chemistry.
“We want to know if the type of chemistry that could be important for early pre-biochemical systems on Earth is taking place on Titan,” explains Dr. Trainer, a planetary scientist and astrobiologist specializing in Titan.
Titan: Dragonfly’s target
Titan, the largest moon of Saturn, is shrouded in a dense nitrogen-rich atmosphere, bears a striking resemblance to Earth in many ways. With a diameter of 5,150 kilometers, Titan is the second-largest moon in our solar system, surpassed only by Jupiter’s Ganymede.
Dense atmosphere and unique climate
One of Titan’s most distinctive features is its thick atmosphere, which is composed primarily of nitrogen and methane. This dense atmosphere creates a surface pressure 1.5 times higher than Earth’s, making it the only moon in our solar system with a substantial atmosphere.
The presence of methane in Titan’s atmosphere leads to a fascinating hydrological cycle, similar to Earth’s water cycle, but with methane as the primary liquid.
Titan’s surface is dotted with numerous lakes and seas of liquid hydrocarbons, predominantly methane and ethane. These liquid bodies, some of which are larger than the Great Lakes on Earth, are the result of Titan’s unique climate and atmospheric conditions.
The Cassini mission, which explored the Saturn system from 2004 to 2017, provided stunning images and data of these extraterrestrial lakes and seas.
Dragonfly mission to search Titan for prebiotic chemistry and life
The complex chemistry occurring on Titan’s surface and in its atmosphere has drawn significant attention from astrobiologists.
With its abundant organic compounds and the presence of liquid methane, Titan is considered a prime candidate for studying prebiotic chemistry and the potential for life to emerge in environments different from Earth.
Beneath Titan’s icy crust lies another intriguing feature: a global subsurface ocean of liquid water and ammonia. This ocean, which is believed to be salty and have a high pH, may potentially host microbial life.
The presence of this subsurface ocean, along with the unique chemistry on Titan’s surface, makes this moon a fascinating target for future exploration and scientific research.
Pushing the boundaries of rotorcraft exploration
Nicky Fox, associate administrator of the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters, emphasized the significance of the Dragonfly mission, stating, “Exploring Titan will push the boundaries of what we can do with rotorcraft outside of Earth.”
Titan’s unique characteristics, including its abundant complex carbon-rich chemistry, interior ocean, and past presence of liquid water on the surface, make it an ideal destination for studying prebiotic chemical processes and the potential habitability of an extraterrestrial environment.
Innovative design and cutting-edge technology
The Dragonfly robotic rotorcraft will leverage Titan’s low gravity and dense atmosphere to fly between different points of interest on the moon’s surface, spanning several miles apart.
This innovative approach allows the entire suite of instruments to be relocated to new sites once the previous one has been thoroughly explored, providing access to samples from diverse geological environments.
DraMS, developed by the same team responsible for the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite aboard the Curiosity rover, will analyze surface samples using techniques tested on Mars.
Dr. Trainer emphasized the benefits of this heritage, stating, “This design has given us an instrument that’s very flexible, that can adapt to the different types of surface samples.”
Dragonfly mission challenges and funding
The Dragonfly mission successfully passed its Preliminary Design Review in early 2023. However, due to funding constraints, the mission was asked to develop an updated budget and schedule.
The revised plan, presented and conditionally approved in November 2023, hinged on the outcome of the fiscal year 2025 budget process.
With the release of the president’s fiscal year 2025 budget request, Dragonfly is now confirmed with a total lifecycle cost of $3.35 billion and a launch date set for July 2028.
This reflects a cost increase of approximately two times the initially proposed cost and a delay of more than two years from the original selection in 2019.
Despite the challenges posed by funding constraints, the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain issues, and an in-depth design iteration, NASA remains committed to the Dragonfly mission.
Additional funding has been provided for a heavy-lift launch vehicle to shorten the mission’s cruise phase and compensate for the delayed arrival at Titan.
Rigorous testing and validation
To ensure the success of the Dragonfly mission, researchers on Earth have conducted extensive testing and validation of the designs and models for the nuclear-powered, car-sized drone.
The mission team has carried out test campaigns at NASA’s Langley Research Center, utilizing the Subsonic Tunnel and the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) to validate computational fluid dynamics models and gather data under simulated Titan atmospheric conditions.
Ken Hibbard, Dragonfly mission systems engineer at APL, emphasized the importance of these tests, stating, “All of these tests feed into our Dragonfly Titan simulations and performance predictions.”
As the Dragonfly mission progresses, it marks a new era of exploration and scientific discovery. Dr. Trainer expressed her excitement, saying, “Dragonfly is a spectacular science mission with broad community interest, and we are excited to take the next steps on this mission.”
Turning science fiction into fact with the Dragonfly mission
In summary, the Dragonfly mission embodies the essence of human curiosity and the relentless pursuit of knowledge. As NASA prepares to send this revolutionary rotorcraft to the alien world of Titan, we stand on the brink of a new era of exploration and discovery.
With its innovative design, cutting-edge technology, and the unwavering dedication of the mission team, Dragonfly will unlock the secrets of prebiotic chemistry and shed light on the potential for life beyond Earth.
As we eagerly await the launch of this titanic mission, we can only imagine the wonders that await us on Saturn’s enigmatic moon. The Dragonfly mission is a testament to the indomitable human spirit and our boundless capacity to push the frontiers of knowledge.
In the words of Ken Hibbard, “With Dragonfly, we’re turning science fiction into exploration fact,” and that fact will undoubtedly inspire generations to come.
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Science
Marine plankton could act as alert in mass extinction event: UVic researcher – Langley Advance Times
A University of Victoria micropaleontologist found that marine plankton may act as an early alert system before a mass extinction occurs.
With help from collaborators at the University of Bristol and Harvard, Andy Fraass’ newest paper in the Nature journal shows that after an analysis of fossil records showed that plankton community structures change before a mass extinction event.
“One of the major findings of the paper was how communities respond to climate events in the past depends on the previous climate,” Fraass said in a news release. “That means that we need to spend a lot more effort understanding recent communities, prior to industrialization. We need to work out what community structure looked like before human-caused climate change, and what has happened since, to do a better job at predicting what will happen in the future.”
According to the release, the fossil record is the most complete and extensive archive of biological changes available to science and by applying advanced computational analyses to the archive, researchers were able to detail the global community structure of the oceans dating back millions of years.
A key finding of the study was that during the “early eocene climatic optimum,” a geological era with sustained high global temperatures equivalent to today’s worst case global warming scenarios, marine plankton communities moved to higher latitudes and only the most specialized plankton remained near the equator, suggesting that the tropical temperatures prevented higher amounts of biodiversity.
“Considering that three billion people live in the tropics, the lack of biodiversity at higher temperatures is not great news,” paper co-leader Adam Woodhouse said in the release.
Next, the team plans to apply similar research methods to other marine plankton groups.
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