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The Real Reason House Prices Are Skyrocketing: What The Real Estate Industry Won't Tell You – Forbes

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For more than two years house prices have been increasing faster in metro Phoenix than in any other city in the S&P/CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The median single-family house price in metro Phoenix increased $100,000 in 2021 and is continuing to increase crazy fast in 2022, according to Phoenix MLS data.

#1 Reason For Skyrocketing House Prices

Almost everyone agrees the main culprit for our skyrocketing house prices in Phoenix and the United States is the extremely low number of houses for sale. What we don’t agree on is what’s causing the low supply of houses for sale.

In metro Phoenix at the end of 2019 (before Covid), 9,700 single-family houses were for sale. At the end of 2021, only 4,500 single-family houses were for sale in the Phoenix MLS.

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The real estate industry loves to say the only solution is to build more houses in the future. Their unspoken point is we can’t stop house prices from soaring today.

What The Real Estate Industry Won’t Tell You

The industry conveniently ignores the other part of the supply equation: the number of houses sold. The number of houses for sale is equal to the number of houses put up for sale, minus the number of houses sold. (Very few houses have been pulled off the market unsold.)

The supply of houses for sale is so low today because investors bought up so many houses that they pulled down the supply of houses for sale. Mathematically, when investors buy more houses, fewer houses are for sale.

Let’s compare 2021 to the last year before the pandemic, 2019. At the end of 2021 we had 5,200 fewer single-family houses for sale in the Phoenix MLS than at the end of 2019. But in 2021 investors bought 5,900 more single-family houses than in 2019.

If investors had bought the same number of houses in 2021 as they did in 2019, by the end of 2021 the number of houses for sale would have gone up to pre-Covid levels, and the size of the median house price increase would have gone down to pre-Covid levels.

Much Higher Landlord Purchases Caused Home Prices To Skyrocket

In the hottest real estate market in the country, Phoenix, the supply of single-family houses for sale would have been back to pre-Covid levels by the end of 2021–except that investors bought a lot more houses in 2021 than they did before.

Investors bought more than twice as many houses than in 2019. Live-in buyers, however, actually bought fewer homes in 2021 than in 2019.

Why did landlords buy so many more houses in 2021? There are a lot of reasons, including the rise of short-term rentals which has taken thousands of houses out of the Phoenix housing supply and put them into the Phoenix lodging supply.

One national, long-term, systemic cause is that real estate investors get huge tax breaks that live-in owners don’t get. Landlords naturally buy a lot more houses because of those tax breaks.

Those government incentives also make real estate booms (and busts) a lot larger than they would be if the government didn’t, essentially, pay landlords to buy single-family houses.

We have more investor-owned houses to begin with because of those tax breaks. Then when the market gets hot, even more investors jump in and buy than would if we didn’t have those tax breaks. House prices increase a lot more because of those tax breaks.

Why Increased Demand Increases House Prices So Much

In economics jargon, for single-family houses, both the price elasticity of supply and the price elasticity of demand are incredibly inelastic. That means house prices are super sensitive to unexpected increases in demand.

When the number of houses sold jumps up for any reason, house prices jump up an unusually large amount because it will take so long for the supply of houses to increase enough to match the increase in sales.

In addition, the demand for single family houses is also incredibly inelastic which means those higher prices don’t reduce the number of houses sold very much. Prices have to increase an unusually large amount to reduce sales.

Together, the two extreme inelasticities mean small increases in demand for houses can lead to house price increases that seem totally out of proportion. That is, relative to other goods, an increase in demand for houses causes an extreme increase in prices.

There’s more. Because houses are partially an investment good for live-in homeowners and are 100% an investment good for landlords, house prices can act more like stock prices than consumer goods prices. Like with stocks, fast price increases cause optimistic buyers to buy expecting prices to go even higher. Unfortunately, the most optimistic buyers set the prices for both stocks and houses.

Rapidly increasing house prices make buying houses more attractive to those momentum traders which causes house prices to increase even more in a feedback loop. In addition, if you start with a given amount of money, you can borrow a lot more money to buy houses than you can to buy stocks. That enables house prices to increase even faster in a hot market.

Quickest Way To Increase The Supply Of Houses For Sale

A quick solution to the low Phoenix and U.S. supply of houses for sale is to level the playing field and to stop giving any tax breaks to landlords that live-in owners don’t get. Make it so everyone gets tax breaks on one house, if they own it and live in it, but that’s it–no tax breaks at all related to any other single-family houses or condos they buy in the future. Then watch U.S. house prices become less crazy in both good times and bad.

Economically, if we had done this a year ago, the U.S. would be well on its way back to normal levels of supply now and, in addition, we would greatly reduce the size of future housing booms and busts. Far greater economic stability for households would create far greater economic growth in the future–with no out-of-pocket cost to the government. The homeownership rate would also increase–with no out-of-pocket cost to the government.

We have a lot of other economic knobs we could turn to stabilize U.S. housing supply and prices–if needed–but first, the government should at least stop making things worse with its huge, landlord tax breaks.

Here’s one crazy example. Last year the typical house in metro Phoenix appreciated $100,000 but, if it’s owned by a landlord, our genius government pretends the house depreciated in value and gives the landlord a tax deduction for the imaginary fall in value! No wonder investors have been buying more and more single-family houses for decades and U.S. house prices have become more and more unstable.

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Former HGTV star from Los Gatos sentenced in $10M real estate fraud case – CBS San Francisco

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LOS GATOS – A Los Gatos man who starred in a real estate reality show was sentenced to jail and ordered to pay back nearly $10 million to his victims after being convicted of real estate fraud, prosecutors said Tuesday.

According to Santa Clara County District Attorney Jeff Rosen’s office, 58-year-old Charles “Todd” Hill received a four-year sentence. Hill starred in the HGTV show “Flip It to Win It“, which featured teams buying dilapidated homes and fixing them, before selling them for a profit.

The show aired in 2014.

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Prosecutors said Hill was convicted in Sep. 2023 after admitting to grand theft with aggravated white-collar enhancements for committing real estate and financial fraud against 11 victims. Hill was indicted in 2019 following an investigation by the DA’s office.

“Some see the huge amount of money in Silicon Valley real estate as a business opportunity,” Rosen said in a statement. “Others, unfortunately, see it as a criminal opportunity – and we will hold those people strictly accountable.”

According to the DA’s office, Hill engaged in “multiple fraud schemes”, with some scams dating back before the HGTV show.

Prosecutors said in one instance, he diverted construction money for his personal use. In another, Hill created a Ponzi scheme by taking money intended to buy homes from an investor and spending it on a lavish lifestyle instead. He hid the theft by creating false balance sheets and used fraudulent information to obtain loans, according to prosecutors.

In a third case, prosecutors said an investor who provided $250,000 to remodel a home toured the property, only finding it to be a “burnt down shell” with no work performed.

Hill had used the money on a rented apartment in San Francisco along with spending on hotels, vacations and luxury cars, prosecutors said.

In addition to jail time, Hill was ordered to pay back $9,402,678.43 in restitution and serve 10 years probation. Hill has been remanded into custody, the DA’s office announced.

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Unlocking success in real estate with Glenn Zdrill – paNOW

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Since Zdrill is well versed in all aspects of the real estate industry, you’ll have answers to questions before you even think to ask them – like, “How does mortgage loan insurance work?” or “How much will I need for closing costs?”

“Closing costs typically range from 1.5 to four per cent of the home’s purchase price and include things like legal and administrative fees, your home inspection, appraisal fees and more. So, you need to budget for this. Its my job to make sure you’re asking all of the right questions and I’m giving you the information you need to make informed decisions.”

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As a licensed realtor with RE/MAX P.A. Realty, Zdrill has the option to show any property on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) database. He prides himself on understanding the market and current trends including property prices and the community.

“Prince Albert continues to have a lot of things happening with the construction of the new hospital, swimming pool and rinks. When I got into real estate over a year ago, I believed Prince Albert was a community on the verge of a boom and we’re starting to see that come to fruition.”

Selling or buying a home involves a multitude of moving parts, from negotiations to closing procedures and Zdrill is committed to helping his clients navigate the complexities with confidence.

Contact Glenn Zdrill through the RE/MAX P.A. Realty office at 2370 – Second Ave. W or give him a call at 306-961-5767.

*Please note, this article is not intended to solicit any properties already listed for sale.

**This content was created by paNOW’s commercial content division.

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Ontario regulator freezes assets of unlicensed builder

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The extraordinary measures Ontario’s new homes regulator is taking to deal with a Toronto builder with a history of sanctions highlight the challenge posed by unlicensed builders.

On March 19, the Home Construction Regulatory Authority (HCRA) froze the assets of Albion Building Consultant Inc. Court documents said that an investigation found evidence that the company took money for as many as 53 separate homes in Toronto it did not have the proper licences to build or sell.

The number of homes allegedly illegally built by Albion is several times larger than previously believed, which the HCRA said prompted it to invoke rarely used powers.

The freezing of assets was not punitive, but “to hold any purchaser funds in trust … to prohibit [Albion] from transferring any assets [and] to preserve the deposits for the benefit of homebuyers,” said Wendy Moir, the HCRA’s chief executive officer and registrar.

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Ontario’s new home regulations are split between two delegated authorities, HCRA and Tarion. HCRA, which was launched in 2021, licenses builders and polices their conduct. Tarion approves the number of homes a builder can enroll in its home warranty program, an insurance pool that protects new home deposits and serves as a backstop for builder defect complaints.

If homes are built or sold without licences, they cannot be enrolled in the Tarion program, limiting the buyers’ recourse in the event of defaults by the builder.

“The HCRA is taking appropriate action to protect the public and send a clear message to the industry that those who act unlawfully or unethically will be held accountable,” said Ms. Moir.

The principals of Albion – Zamal Hossain and his wife Farida Haque – have already been convicted four times for regulatory offences related to 16 homes built without licences between 2016 and 2022. But in a search warrant application the HCRA filed on Feb. 20 with the Ontario Court of Justice, the agency outlines dozens of other new-build homes Albion is alleged to have sold or constructed. Those allegations have yet to be proven in court.

The warrant is only the second one the relatively new agency has served. It allowed investigators to comb through Albion’s office at 3028 Danforth Ave. in Toronto for any records of contracts and agreements with buyers about the homes, contracts with trades and subtrades, contact information for the new home purchasers and any correspondence between Albion and purchasers about the new homes.

“We got a lot of information from them – a van full of documents,” said Ms. Moir. “We have hundreds of documents to go through,” she said. “This is one of our largest investigations.”

Albion’s business has been to tear down a single detached home, split the lot and then construct two new homes on the old site. The HCRA warrant suggests the majority of the 53 suspected unlicensed homes are lot-splits located mainly in Scarborough. It’s unclear as yet how many homes the company actually completed.

In the past, Tarion extended a licence to build homes to Mr. Hossain and Albion, but limited the number of new homes he was allowed to enroll into its insurance program.

The evidence HCRA submitted for the search warrant suggests that the actual number of unlicensed homes built by Albion was several times higher than Mr. Hossain admitted.

Mr. Hossain didn’t respond to requests for comment for this story, but in 2023 he offered this comment to The Globe on his previous convictions: “Yes I broke the law. I did the house without the Tarion [new home warranty]. … I didn’t murder anybody.”

According to Ms. Moir, there’s no clear tally of how many unlicensed builders there are in the province. She notes that it is not illegal to build your own home without a licence. But if you hire a contractor to do it, they must be licensed.

“We’ve seen an 80-per-cent increase in illegal building complaints since last year,” she said. “I don’t think it’s more illegal building, we think it’s more awareness.”

Neil Rodgers, Interim CEO of the Ontario Home Builders Association, said the Albion case puts a spotlight on the need for regulatory fixes to tackle illegal vending where an unlicensed builder takes deposits to build homes they aren’t entitled to sell or build.

“There has to be a pro-active regulatory regime,” said Mr. Rodgers. “There needs to be a system put in place that allows for what I’m going to call early warning tracking, whereby purchasers or their agents or their solicitors could register their agreements of purchase and sale with HCRA or Tarion. If there’s a pattern that’s emerging it gives the regulator an opportunity to intervene much faster.”

Mr. Rodgers likens this requirement on buyers to share details of their agreement of purchase and sale’s with HCRA or another agency as similar to mailing a warranty card for an electronic appliance, and says he’s calling on the province for consultations on changes to the requirements.

Karen Somerville of the consumer lobby group Canadians for Properly Built Homes (CPBH) doesn’t agree the burden should be on consumers to identify unlicensed builders, and points to a different screening where there’s already been pilot programs in the past: construction permitting.

“CPBH proposes that the municipality has the responsibility to notify HCRA given the information available in the building permit application,” Ms. Somerville said. “This would result in government organizations working together using information they already have to identify unlicensed builders.”

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