The year that is drawing to a close has not been good for oil. Despite production caps across OPEC and beyond, and despite the extra-large number and size of production outages, benchmark prices have stubbornly stayed range-bound below what oil-reliant OPEC economies consider a good price for their product. How did this happen?
First and foremost, it happened because of the U.S. shale boom, as Bloomberg’s Grant Smith wrote in a recent overview of oil in 2019. The consensus on the role of U.S. shale oil production growth seems to be unchallengeable. All oil price forecasts, including OPEC’s own, now regularly include U.S. oil production growth as the main reason for growth in non-OPEC supply that acts as counterweight to OPEC’s production curb efforts.
It was U.S. shale oil production—which hit a record-high this year turning the country into the world’s top oil producer—that caused what can only be called a growing apathy among traders. When OPEC is not the single large source of oil for energy-hungry nations, when there is another country pumping more than 11 million bpd with no risk of disruptions, the mood on the market is very different, and we saw this in 2019 more clearly than ever before.
The production outages at Libyan fields moved prices, but only for a few days. Even the biggest production outage in recent history, the drone and missile attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, could not keep Brent at $70 for more than a few days. Of course, as usual, there was the hypothesizing that it could have spiked to $300 a barrel had the attacks led to an open war in the Middle East, but hypothesizing is part of the oil price game that has little bearing on actual prices. Related: From Boom To Bust: Permian Shale Towns Face Exodus
In further evidence that U.S. oil has become a force to be reckoned with, OPEC’s latest agreement to implement deeper production cuts failed to impress a market that was expecting the deepening and knew that this cannot stop U.S. production from growing. Oil prices habitually rise after an OPEC meeting or an update from inside the cartel—or from a Russian official now that the two have partnered on production—but this year the price rises have been short-lived.
Fundamentals forecasts have not helped. The International Energy Agency said in its latest Oil Market Report that the global oil market will likely be 700,000 bpd in excess of demand in early 2020. That’s despite the efforts of OPEC+ and, yes, thanks to growth in U.S. production. That production, the IEA said, would drive a 2.3-million-bpd growth in non-OPEC supply while growth in the demand for oil will continue to slow. Related: Iraq’s 550,000 Bpd Oil Deal Is In Jeopardy
Yet there is still hope for oil bulls. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan recently revised their oil price forecasts for 2020 and they revised them upward. Goldman upped its outlook for both Brent and WTI, citing its expectations that OPEC+ will successfully cut more barrels from their daily production, shrinking any oversupply. JP Morgan seems to share the sentiment. It also cited OPEC+’s deeper cuts as reason for its price-forecast revision.
Trusting oil price forecasts from even the most reputable investment bank is something one does at their own risk, but there have been signs that prices could climb higher, even in the new apathetic market environment. Among the signs are the improving relations between the U.S. and China and, most recently, a WSJ report that banks are growing cold towards shale drillers. There is a very good chance that news like this could pull the market out of its apathy.
If shale drillers lose their easy access to cash, the fact could even erase the apathy entirely. For now, however, the overwhelming sentiment on oil markets is indifferent-for-longer.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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COVID-19 in Ottawa: Ontario reports nearly 100 cases Sunday – CTV Edmonton
COVID-19 trends in Ottawa continue to show improvement following a lower case count on Sunday.
Ottawa Public Health reported 76 more people in the city have tested positive for COVID-19, a lower figure than the 92 new cases reported on Saturday.
The number of active cases continues to fall, as does the weekly per capita rate.
OPH also reported no new deaths in Ottawa for the first time since Jan. 16. There were 17 COVID-19 related deaths reported in Ottawa from Jan. 17 to Jan. 23.
In all, 419 residents of Ottawa have died since the start of the pandemic.
Ontario health officials are reporting 99 new cases of COVID-19 in Ottawa on Sunday, but the gap between the two health authorities is closing.
Figures from OPH and the province often differ due to different data collection times.
There were 2,417 new cases of COVID-19 reported across Ontario on Sunday. Public Health Ontario also added 50 new deaths provincewide and 2,759 new resolved cases on Sunday.
Since Jan. 16, active cases of COVID-19 have fallen by 27 per cent, the weekly rate of cases per 100,000 residents is down by about 30 per cent and the test positivity rate fell to below 4 per cent.
OTTAWA’S COVID-19 KEY STATISTICS
A province-wide lockdown went into effect on Dec. 26, 2020. Ottawa Public Health moved Ottawa into its red zone in early January.
A provincial stay-at-home order has been in effect since Jan. 14, 2021.
Ottawa Public Health data:
- COVID-19 cases per 100,000 (previous seven days): 61.2 cases
- Positivity rate in Ottawa: 3.2 per cent (Jan. 15 – Jan. 21)
- Reproduction number: 0.91 (seven day average)
Reproduction values greater than 1 indicate the virus is spreading and each case infects more than one contact. If it is less than 1, it means spread is slowing.
As of Jan. 22, 2021
- Doses administered in Ottawa (first and second shots): 22,981
- Doses received in Ottawa: 25,350
ACTIVE CASES OF COVID-19 IN OTTAWA
Ottawa Public Health says there are 939 people with known active cases of COVID-19 in Ottawa right now, down from 988 in Saturday’s update.
The number of active cases peaked at a record 1,286 on Jan. 16.
OPH added 125 new resolved cases to its count, bringing the total number of resolved cases to 11,571.
The number of active cases is the number of total laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 minus the numbers of resolved cases and deaths. A case is considered resolved 14 days after known symptom onset or positive test result.
HOSPITALIZATIONS IN OTTAWA
Ottawa Public Health is reporting 37 people in Ottawa hospitals with COVID-19 complications, one more than on Saturday.
There are six people in intensive care.
Of the people in hospital, one is between 10 and 19 years old, one is in their 40s, eight are in their 50s (one is in the ICU), seven are in their 60s (four are in the ICU), four are in their 70s (one is in the ICU), 10 are in their 80s, and six are 90 or older.
Ontario health officials say 48,947 COVID-19 tests were completed across Ontario on Saturday and 23,995 tests remain under investigation.
The Ottawa COVID-19 Testing Taskforce does not provide local testing updates on weekends. In its most recent report on Friday, it said labs performed 6,832 on Jan. 21.
The next update from the taskforce will be released Monday afternoon.
COVID-19 CASES BY AGE CATEGORY
- 0-9 years old: Eight new cases (923 total cases)
- 10-19 years-old: Eight new cases (1,622 total cases)
- 20-29 years-old: 14 new cases (2,756 total cases)
- 30-39 years-old: 10 new cases (1,790 total cases)
- 40-49 years-old: Six new cases (1,680 total cases)
- 50-59 years-old: Seven new cases (1,539 total cases)
- 60-69-years-old: Five new cases (943 total cases)
- 70-79 years-old: Nine new cases (585 total cases)
- 80-89 years-old: Three new cases (653 total cases)
- 90+ years old: Six new cases (435 total cases)
- The ages of three people with COVID-19 are unknown.
COVID-19 CASES ACROSS THE REGION
- Eastern Ontario Health Unit: 15 new cases
- Hastings Prince Edward Public Health: Zero new cases
- Kingston, Frontenac, Lennox and Addington Public Health: Five new cases
- Leeds, Grenville and Lanark District Health Unit: Two new cases
- Renfrew County and District Health Unit: Zero new cases
- Outaouais region: 23 new cases
Ottawa Public Health is reporting COVID-19 outbreaks at 41 institutions in Ottawa, including long-term care homes, retirement homes, daycares, hospitals and schools.
There are eight active community outbreaks. Two are linked to office workplaces, one is linked to a construction workplace, one is linked to a health workplace, one is linked to a manufacturing/industrial workplace, one is linked to a services workplace, one is linked to a restaurant, and one is linked to a warehouse.
The schools and childcare spaces currently experiencing outbreaks are:
- Andrew Fleck Children’s Services – Home Child Care – 29101
- Greenboro Children’s Centre
- Little Acorn Early Learning Centre
- Montessori by Brightpath
- Ruddy Family Y Child Care
- Services à l’enfance Grandir Ensemble – La Maisonée – 28627
- Wee Watch Nepean – Home Child Care – 29084
The long-term care homes, retirement homes, hospitals, and other spaces currently experiencing outbreaks are:
- Besserer Place
- Centre D’Accueil Champlain
- Colonel By Retirement Home
- Elisabeth Bruyere Residence
- Extendicare Laurier Manor
- Extendicare Medex
- Extendicare New Orchard Lodge
- Extendicare West End Villa
- Forest Hill
- Garden Terrace
- Garry J. Armstrong long-term care home
- Grace Manor Long-term Care Home
- Group Home – 28608
- Group Home – 29045
- Group Home – 29049
- Group Home – 29052
- Madonna Care Community
- Montfort Long-term Care Centre
- Oakpark Retirement Community
- Park Place
- Perley and Rideau Veterans’ Health Centre
- Peter D. Clark long-term care home
- Richmond Care Home
- Rockcliffe Retirement Residence
- Shelter – 28778
- Shelter – 29413
- Sisters of Charity – Couvent Mont St. Joseph
- St. Patrick’s Home
- Stirling Park Retirement Community
- Supported Independent Living – 29100
- The Ravines Independent Living
- Valley Stream Retirement Residence
- Villa Marconi
- Villagia in the Glebe
A single laboratory-confirmed case of COVID-19 in a resident or staff member of a long-term care home, retirement home or shelter triggers an outbreak response, according to Ottawa Public Health. In childcare settings, a single confirmed, symptomatic case in a staff member, home daycare provider, or child triggers an outbreak.
Under provincial guidelines, a COVID-19 outbreak in a school is defined as two or more lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases in students and/or staff in a school with an epidemiological link, within a 14-day period, where at least one case could have reasonably acquired their infection in the school (including transportation and before or after school care).
Male teen who worked at Ontario long-term care home has died of COVID-19, health unit says – CBC.ca
A male teenager who worked at an Ontario long-term care home has died of COVID-19, the Middlesex-London public health unit said Saturday.
Dan Flaherty, spokesperson for the Middlesex-London Health Unit, said one of the three deaths it reported on its website Saturday is a staff person. The other two people who died, a man in his 60s and a woman in her 80s, were also associated with long-term care homes.
The teen is the youngest person in the region to have died of COVID-19. The teen’s age and workplace have not been released.
“We are not able to provide any other information including the individual’s exact age or the facility where they worked, as this could risk identifying them,” Flaherty said in an email.
Dr. Alex Summers, associate medical officer of health for the Middlesex-London Health Unit, told CBC News Network’s Natasha Fatah that the young man was recently diagnosed with COVID-19 and was a staff member at a long-term care home.
The diagnosis came within the last four weeks and his infectious period had actually ended, Summers said. An investigation is underway into the death, he said.
Summers called it a “tragic young death” in the region. “It’s certainly a very sad day and a reminder of how the impact of this pandemic can be felt,” he said.
“This is the youngest person who had been diagnosed with COVID who has died since the beginning of the pandemic for us in our region.”
‘It’s a tragic day,’ health official says
Summers could not say if the young man had underlying health conditions. The investigation is looking into that, he added.
Summers previously said the teen was not working at a long-term care home while infectious, but the health unit now says the teen did work at the home for a short period of time, early on in the infectious period, before going into isolation.
He said the health unit believes some members of his immediate household may end up testing positive for the virus.
“COVID-19 transmits very readily among households,” he said.
Summers said the anticipated spread to his family is “just another reminder of how infectious this disease certainly can be.” Members of the health unit have spoken to the young man’s family, he said.
“It’s a tragic day,” he said. “I think there is a sense of sorrow among us today.”
In an email to CBC Toronto, Ontario’s long term care ministry confirmed the death of a long-term care home worker but provided no other details.
“We extend our deepest condolences to their family, friends and colleagues,” Rob McMahon, spokesperson for the ministry, said in an email on Saturday.
“Due to sensitivities and requirements for protection of privacy for Ontarians, and for protecting Ontarians’ confidential personal and health information, we cannot comment on individual cases,” McMahon added.
“We are grateful for the hard work and dedication of all long-term care staff working under challenging conditions to care for our most vulnerable during the pandemic.”
London-area teen 11th long-term care worker to die of COVID-19
A teenage male has become the 11th long-term care worker to die of COVID-19 in the province.
The London-Middlesex Health Unit confirmed that one of three coronavirus-related deaths reported Saturday is a teen who worked in a long-term care setting. While they would not confirm his age or the name of the facility he worked at, they do say he is the youngest person with COVID-19 to pass away in the region.
The death was first reported after provincial data released on Saturday showed there had been an additional healthcare worker death.
There are currently 252 long-term care homes in the province experiencing a COVID-19 outbreak. A total of 3,322 residents have died of the virus since the start of the pandemic, including 210 in the past week alone.
Source:- CityNews Toronto
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