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The Troubled State Of The Economy – Forbes

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Recent numbers do not look good. Jobs growth in November slowed considerably from the strong summer figures. Initial claims for unemployment insurance remain disturbingly high. Retail sales, after stalling in October, fell 1.1% in November. That is almost 12.5% at an annualized rate. The picture could be brighter but expecting this to persist would be a mistake.

Two things explain this recent weakness. First, the summer economic surge was never sustainable. Monthly retail sales jumped 6.3% on average between May and September. This growth was entirely unprecedented and reflected a snapback from the intense lockdowns and quarantines of late March and April. The same phenomenon accounted for comparable surges in employment during those months as well as the record 33.1% annualized (annualized) jump in the third quarters real gross domestic product (GDP). This pace was simply unsustainable. Even had the economy’s re-opening continued apace into the present, the growth figures would have shown a slowdown. But there is a second factor. Despite the arrival of vaccines and all the longer-term optimism they inspire, a striking rise in infections has induced the re-imposition of anti-virus strictures in some locations as well as increasing levels of fear in the population, both of which have also imposed on present levels of economic activity.

The detail in the most recent set of retail sales figures makes evident the impact of these renewed strictures and fears. The many retail establishments that had been holding on barely in the hopes that the environment would improve have in the face of this latest setback given up and closed permanently. New York City’s iconic 21 Club recently announced that it would close its doors forever. Admittedly, this is only a single example in a special location, but it is nonetheless indicative. Also indicative, the November report showed that department stores, where human interaction is unavoidable, showed the biggest sales declines, 7.7% for the month or 62% at an annualized rate. Reflecting the renewed need to stay at home, sales of clothes and accessories fell 6.8% in November. Also indicative of this pressure was the 4.0% drop in sales at restaurants and bars. Meanwhile, non-store retailers showed a sales rise in November, admittedly a modest one but a sharp contrast to the rest of the sector. Products that sell for hobbies, musical instruments, and books, all stay-at-home stuff, fell a relatively modest 0.6%. In contrast to the fate of restaurants and bars, grocery sales rose a smart 2.0% (27% at an annual rate). It is not that Americans plan to eat a lot more. The groceries substitute for the dining out they would have preferred.

This depressing news, however, should have a short shelf life. To be sure, it will color the economic milieu in December and January but not much after. A quick lift should come from Washington, which  seems set to pass economy-boosting fiscal relief, not as generous as last spring’s CARES Act, but significant nonetheless. And by March, enough vaccinations should reduce the fears that weigh on the present economy and induce the authorities to lift some of the lockdown and quarantine strictures currently in place. These improvements are unlikely to produce the kind of snapback that characterized last summer. After all, restraints even now are much less severe than last April. But the change after the period immediately ahead should allow the recovery to proceed through the rest of 2021. Beyond that, there are longer-term economic concerns, most particularly the legacy of debt left by the bankruptcies brought on by this strained period and likely to occur because of the real estate shifts imposed by the pandemic, but these more distant problems will form the subject of another post.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite flat Friday, U.S. markets mixed as Dow posts new record

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was essentially unchanged Friday, while U.S. markets were mixed to end the week, with the Dow ekeing out a new record high.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 1.28 points at 23,867.55.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 38.17 points at 42,063.36. The S&P 500 index was down 11.09 points at 5,702.55, while the Nasdaq composite was down 65.66 points at 17,948.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.72 cents UScompared with 73.73 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 16 cents at US$71 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was up 12 cents at US$2.72 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$31.60 at US$2,646.20 an ounceand the December copper contract was down a penny at US$4.34 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 20, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Bank of Canada trying to figure out how AI might affect inflation, Macklem says

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OTTAWA – Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says there is a lot of uncertainty around how artificial intelligence could affect the economy moving forward, including the labour market and price growth.

In a speech in Toronto at the Economics of Artificial Intelligence Conference, the governor said Friday that the central bank is approaching the issue cautiously to get a better understanding of how AI could affect its job of keeping inflation low and stable.

“Be wary of anyone who claims to know where AI will take us. There is too much uncertainty to be confident,” Macklem said in prepared remarks.

“We don’t know how quickly AI will continue to advance. And we don’t know the timing and extent of its economic and social impacts.”

The governor said AI has the potential of increasing labour productivity, which would raise living standards and grow the economy without boosting inflation.

In the short-term, he said investment in AI is adding to demand and could be inflationary.

However, Macklem also highlighted more pessimistic scenarios, where AI could destroy more jobs than it creates or lead to less competition rather than more.

The governor called on academics and businesses to work together to shed more light on the potential effects of AI on the economy.

“When you enter a dark room, you don’t go charging in. You cautiously feel your way around. And you try to find the light switch. That is what we are doing. What we central bankers need is more light,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 20, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Business

A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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