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The U.S. Real Estate Market in Charts

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Back in 2020 I wrote a quick rundown of the U.S. real estate market in charts to show how the pandemic was impacting the housing market.

It’s been a few years so it’s time to update those charts.

The existing home months’ supply measures the number of months it would take to sell all of the houses on the market at the current pace of sales:

It’s well off the lows of late-2021/early-2022 and trending higher. This is good news for a healthier housing market.

We saw a nice little boom in the construction of new homes when the pandemic created crazy demand for housing.

It was fun while it lasted but higher mortgage rates quickly put an end to that trend. As you can see the number of building permits and housing starts has declined as quickly as it rose:

The increase in mortgage rates is a sight to behold on a chart:

It’s hard to believe there was a housing bubble in the first decade of this century with mortgage rates above 6%. The big difference is rates were falling from higher levels back then while today generationally low mortgage rates are fresh in everyone’s memory.

That mini-boom in new construction, coupled with rate buydowns from homebuilders, has helped make up for falling existing home inventory:

Unfortunately, the housing starts data rolling over means this isn’t likely to last so we need the existing housing market to pick up the slack.

Housing prices continue to take out new highs:

It turns out owning a home was likely your best bet for hedging against inflation during this cycle:

Where housing goes from here is hard to say.

If mortgage rates stay elevated, it would make sense for inventory to continue building and price growth to slow.

If mortgage rates fall enough, we could see a flood of demand from buyers and sellers who have been sidelined but it might depend on why rates fall.

Recessions don’t always crush the housing market as you’d expect:

It’s not a foregone conclusion prices would get killed during the next economic contraction.

Higher mortgage rates have slowed the craziness of the pandemic housing market. But this is also setting us up for more problems down the road since it’s slowing new construction from homebuilders.

Lower mortgage rates would provide relief to borrowers and incentivize more building but it could also lead to increased demand in an already supply-constrained market.

We won’t be in this situation forever because something unexpected always happens eventually, but for now, we’re in a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t housing market.

 

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‘The Bidding War’ taps into Toronto’s real estate anxiety

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‘The Bidding War’ is a play skewering Toronto’s real estate market via a story about a one-day bidding war over the city’s last affordable home. The cast and crew say it exposes how the housing crisis brings out “the worst in people.” (Nov. 12, 2024)

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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