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The US economy is a 'job machine.' Can it last? – CNN

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This week brings the final US jobs report of 2019, buttoning up a solid year for jobs growth as consumer spending stayed strong and concerns about a recession abated.
But it’s an open question how long substantial jobs growth can continue. Heading into 2020, momentum is poised to weaken.
“We’re likely to see a slower pace of job creation in December, and there is a risk that we see a broader slowdown in hiring over the coming months,” James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, said in a note to clients. “As ever though, a lot depends on trade.”
The outlook: Economists polled by Reuters believe the US economy added 160,000 jobs in December. That’s a very good number, but well below the 266,000 jobs created in November.
Commerzbank, however, thinks the November number was partially inflated by the end of the General Motors strike. Its economists think that the December rise, though less dramatic, “should create the conditions for the consumer to remain in a buying mood.”
“[The] US economy is still a job machine,” Commerzbank economists told clients. They expect an increase of 190,000 jobs.
Why it’s worth monitoring: Investors read the jobs report closely for a check on the health of the US economy. Should jobs growth falter, the consumer spending that’s supported America’s economy could take a hit.

How high could oil prices go if Iran retaliates against the US?

A sharp escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran has caused crude oil prices to surge. They may not stay elevated for long, my CNN Business colleague Charles Riley writes.
How high could oil prices go if Iran retaliates over US attack?
Tehran has promised retaliation for the killing of top general Qasem Soleimani on President Donald Trump’s orders. But analysts expect a limited response that won’t significantly disrupt crude supplies, keeping a lid on oil price rises.
What retaliation looks like: Analysts at Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy, say Iran’s retaliation will be carefully calibrated and likely stop short of what would be considered a major, or even limited, armed conflict.
Eurasia Group expects roughly a month of low-level clashes between US forces and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, where the airstrike on Soleimani occurred. Tehran is also likely to resume harassment of commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf.
Another obvious target: Oil industry infrastructure belonging to Iran’s regional foes. The United States blamed Iran for a missile strike on Saudi Arabia in September that briefly took out roughly half of the kingdom’s oil production.
But Iran denied responsibility for that attack, and analysts say it’s unlikely to try something similar right now for fear of triggering an even bigger military backlash.
“In the near term, we’re not expecting any supply outages,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects. “Iran is not irrational. They’re not going to react quickly — they are going to take their time.”
Market update: Brent crude, the global benchmark, on Friday traded near $69 a barrel. The Dow fell more than 230 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 slid 0.7%.
Sunday: Consumer Electronics Show kicks off in Las Vegas
Tuesday: US trade balance; UK Parliament returns to debate Brexit withdrawal bill
Wednesday: Europe business confidence; Constellation Brands (STZ), Walgreens (WBA) and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) earnings
Thursday: China inflation
Friday: US jobs report

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Calgary's post-pandemic economy poised for 6.9% expansion in 2021, report says – CBC.ca

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Calgary’s economy is going to start roaring back to life next year, but not before the city posts a dismal 10.1 per cent GDP contraction for 2020 as the pandemic and the energy sector slump continue to take their toll, according to a report released Tuesday. 

The Conference Board of Canada’s forecast for Calgary’s economy says that after being put through the wringer in 2020, the city’s fortunes will start to turn around in the new year.

“As the pandemic eases and oil prices slowly begin to strengthen, our call is for the Calgary economy to expand by 6.9 per cent in 2021,” the report said.

Calgary’s labour market already shed 44,000 jobs from the second quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of 2020. 

Another 90,900 jobs were lost in the second quarter of this year, and the board predicts employment will fall by a record 8.0 per cent overall in 2020.

The report predicts Calgary’s unemployment rate will remain high for many more months, averaging 11.3 per cent this year and 10.4 per cent next year.

“Calgary won’t recover its lost jobs until the end of 2022, partly because the oil and gas sector will recover only slowly,” the report said.

Some sectors of the economy are expected to recover faster than others.

The board says Calgary’s badly bruised retail sector — which saw sales drop by 5.1 per cent in 2020 — will bounce back and grow 9.7 per cent in 2021.

But the arts and entertainment industry, which declined 26.2 per cent, and the accommodation and food industry, which fell by 36.9 per cent, might not fully rebound until 2022, the report says.

Speaking Tuesday at the annual outlook conference hosted by Calgary Economic Development, ATB Financial chief economist Todd Hirsch said it’s expected that unemployment in Alberta will drop only slightly to 11 per cent next year and remain in the double digits for some time yet.

The Conference Board of Canada says Calgary’s employment rate and GDP will recover slowly but surely over the next two years. (Conference Board of Canada)

“It’s going to take a lot of growth, maybe a few years of growth, to absorb all of that excess labour and make sure everyone finds jobs. So it’s going to take us a while and we don’t think we’re going to be back into single digits probably until 2022 or even later,” he said.

“To get back to 2014 levels, we estimate that’s not going to happen until probably 2024. So it’s sort of a lost decade of growth for this province.”

Calgary Economic Development is banking on the technology sector to help turn around the city’s fortunes.

CEO Mary Moran says companies are already realizing what Calgary has to offer, pointing to how several tech firms have moved into empty office space downtown.

“You have seen the real estate industry adjust to … shorter-term leases, different floor plates, different amenities that they’re offering. And those ones that have made that adjustment are the ones where the tech companies are migrating to.”

Moran says her organization’s goal is to double the number of tech companies in Calgary by the end of this decade.

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Result of 2020 U.S. election has implications for Canadian economy – insauga.com

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Coverage of the U.S. election has split Canadians into three main camps: those who are relieved they live north of the border, those who don’t care, and those who are nervous either outcome with have consequences for us, the neighbour to the north.

A recent report from RSM Canada indicates the election outcome, combined with Canada’s reliance on the U.S. economy, might alter Canada’s recovery and longer-term outlook.

Based on the findings, Canada-China trade has been trending down since the beginning of the U.S.-China Trade War in 2018, while total trade between Canada and the United States increased during this period.

This indicates, based on the current administration’s inability to cap the domestic spread of the virus, a Donald Trump re-election could present economic risks to Canada, due to our dependence on them.

However, Trump’s protectionist tendencies suggest Canada may see further headwinds with its largest trading partner, should he be re-elected.

Additionally, Joe Biden’s proposed ‘Made in America’ tax incentive, which offers tax credits for companies in the U.S. that expand employment and salaries domestically, could potentially discourage future Canadian market expansion.

Further, Biden’s willingness to adopt Trump’s tough stance on China if elected suggests Canada will likely continue to be negatively affected by U.S.-China trade relations.

Moreover, Canadian oil pricing will be hit hard if Biden follows through on his campaign promise to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline–a critical venture for Western Canada oil producers that would provide direct access to the Gulf Coast refineries and world markets.

“Despite a rocky relationship between Canada and the current U.S. administration in recent years, it’s clear that a victory for either Trump or Biden would pose risks to Canada’s economy,” Alex Kotsopoulos, vice president of projects and economics with RSM Canada, said in a news release.

“The issue is that Canada has become increasingly dependent on its neighbour south of the border, and when you combine this with the strong ‘America First’ policies of both presidential candidates, Canada will feel the brunt of those decisions. Therefore, it’ll be important for the Canadian government to proactively engage with the new administration to shore up trade and supply chains, which will be vital in Canada’s own recovery,” he continued.

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Ottawa's economy to shrink 5.7% in 2020 before rebounding next year: Conference Board – Ottawa Business Journal

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Even the insulating effect of the federal government won’t be enough to prevent Ottawa-Gatineau’s economic output from contracting for the first time in nearly a quarter-century in 2020 as COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc with key sectors, a leading think-tank says.

The National Capital Region’s GDP is expected to shrink by nearly six per cent this year, the Conference Board of Canada predicts in its latest economic outlook released this week. To put that number in context, the city’s economy has grown by an average of 2.7 per cent annually over the last five years.

“Ottawa-Gatineau’s position as the nation’s capital and home to the federal government often insulates the city from big swings in economic growth,” said the organization, which forecast back in May that the region’s economy would contract by 2.4 per cent in 2020. “However, the city will not escape the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

It would be the first time Ottawa-Gatineau’s GDP has contracted since 1996, but the think-tank says the capital region is still in better economic shape than most other Canadian centres. 

The Conference Board forecast says Canada’s overall GDP will shrink by 6.6 per cent in 2020 as households tighten their pursestrings and many sectors struggle to recover from a devastating spring and summer. The organization paints an even grimmer long-term picture for industries such as air transportation, accommodations and food and beverage services, declaring they “might never fully return to normal.”

The organization says public administration is the only sector of the local economy that’s expected to grow in 2020. Not surprisingly, the accommodation and food services industry – which has been largely shuttered for much of the pandemic as part of public health efforts to contain the virus – is expected to take the biggest hit, with the Conference Board’s forecast calling for the sector to decline by a whopping 35.6 per cent.

Other sectors facing big declines include retail, which is expected to shrink 6.4 per cent ​– only the third time in the last two decades its output has fallen year-over-year.

Still, the think-tank says it expects both the local and national economies to bounce back in a big way in 2021, with Ottawa-Gatineau’s GDP expected to grow by 5.2 per cent and the national GDP forecast to rise by 5.6 per cent. 

The Conference Board is predicting Ottawa-Gatineau to continue on a growth path in the years ahead, albeit at a slower rate, forecasting GDP increases of 3.6 per cent in 2022 followed by consecutive 1.3 per cent bumps in 2023 and 2024.

The organization made several other economic forecasts, including:

  • Ottawa-Gatineau’s unemployment rate – which peaked at 9.5 per cent in June – will finish at 7.4 per cent for the year, compared with a mark of 4.8 per cent in 2019. Employment in accommodation services will feel the biggest impact, plummeting 34 per cent from last year;
  • Housing starts – which reached a 35-year high of 11,200 units in 2019 – will fall to 10,700 units this year before dipping below 10,000 in 2021 and the next few years ahead;
  • The region’s population will grow 1.5 per cent in 2020, its smallest annual increase in the last five years;
  • Ottawa-Gatineau’s per capita household income will rise 3.8 per cent this year, while per capita disposable income is forecast to grow 5.8 per cent.

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