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The week in politics: Populism and polarization in Canada and the U.S. – Waterloo Region Record

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2 years ago

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WASHINGTON—Next Wednesday, I’ll be appearing on a panel at Toronto Metropolitan University’s Democracy Dialogues to discuss the question, “Is toxic partisanship destroying democracy?”

In preparation for that, one of the questions the moderators asked me to consider is why Canada seems so far to have avoided the kind of bitter polarization that’s overtaken the U.S. during the Trump era. A different question, which came up this week while I was talking to Canadian pollster Frank Graves of EKOS Research, was whether Canada is actually still avoiding it.

“The mood of the country coming out of the pandemic, it’s terrible. It’s polarized in ways that it’s never been,” he said. “When I asked Canadians, what’s the number one cost, when you look back at the pandemic … they say it was the degree to which the country’s become polarized on issues around the vaccine.”

And that polarization, once in place, doesn’t just exist on one issue. Graves went on to say that when polling Canadians’ opinions on the war in Ukraine, he sees those who are unvaccinated agreeing with Russian talking points to an astonishing degree. Those points come out of the same misinformation ecosystem that drives the right-wing extremist support for Donald Trump in the U.S.

And even as the U.S. continued to grapple with the results of that this week, when the public hearings of the Jan. 6 Commission began Thursday night outlining a moment of “maximum danger” for U.S. democracy, as I wrote Friday morning, Canada may be in for the same kinds of grappling.

“In his quest for the national Conservative leadership it seems there are no limits on what Pierre Poilievre is prepared to say to curry favour with the angry anti-vax constituency in his party, the same people prone to disappear down the rabbit hole of conspiracy theories about globalist plots to run the world,” the Star’s editorial board wrote on Wednesday, about the man who appears destined to be the next leader of that party.

Graves told me Poilievre is running the textbook campaign to appeal to “the northern Trumpist crowd,” a constituency with an authoritarian political outlook that has grown to be a substantial chunk of Canadian voters. He said that may be a recipe for electoral success even in a general election, in a country where a majority government could be won with less than 35 per cent of the vote. “Yes, he could definitely win. In fact, I would bet that he would win if there was a vote in the next year.”

That last fact of the first-past-the post electoral system led the editorial board to call for change to the voting system on Thursday, reacting to a system that saw Doug Ford win re-election late last week with only 40.8 per cent of the vote, while only 43 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot.

That the combined votes of the other parties represented an actual majority was another topic of debate this week. “NDP-Liberal merger talks were in the air a decade ago, as they are now,” Susan Delacourt wrote, although she concluded the option was “not likely.”

“I have one message for the Ontario Liberals — resist the temptation,” former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy wrote on Monday of a potential merger. Among his reasons? “An NDP-Liberal merger might fuel polarization,” he wrote. “Although Canadian society is divided, we have thankfully avoided the ‘you are either a Democrat or Republican’ phenomenon we see south of the border. Being forced to self-identify as either ‘left’ or ‘right’ has created two growing solitudes in the U.S. We don’t need it replicated in Ontario.”

Interestingly, major recaps of the Ontario election campaign focused on how Ford — who, in my days in Toronto in the not-that-distant past, was the most polarizing politician around — won in part by portraying himself as a uniter, not a divider. The “populist who likes to be liked,” Robert Benzie wrote on Thursday, shunned the anti-vax wing of his party, diversified its candidate pool and made appeals to working-class voters in traditional NDP areas to become “the big-spending ‘party of yes.’”

“He is not a partisan or ideological guy at his core. He’s comfortable working with people who have traditionally been in the other side of the fence,” Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke told Benzie. “There are whole swaths of ridings across Ontario that we’re only competitive in because of his brand.”

As I say, this is fascinating for me — having covered Ford as a municipal and provincial politician when he regularly villainized his opponents and the “downtown elites” who voted for them — to observe. At least rhetorically, as Graves told me on the phone, Ford has moved away from rage-fuelled populism — even if his base of voters hasn’t.

Graves said the same authoritarian outlook that drives Trump voters in the U.S and is driving Poilievre’s federal Conservative campaign was “highly predictive of Doug Ford’s supporters.” The same block of voters, Graves said, also supported Ford’s brother Rob as Toronto’s mayor, and have been with him a long time. But Ford also has a high degree of support from self-defined “upper class” voters, a crossover that may be possible because of the softening of his rhetoric to appear less polarizing.

While Poilievre is leaning into Trump-style polarization, Ford has been backing away from it while retaining the support of those it appeals to, at least for now.

Former NDP strategist Robin Sears wrote Sunday that whether Ford sticks with that transformation of his image from angry populist to an apparent trusting partnership with Trudeau’s government “to lay the foundations of a more appealing, more enduring legacy” is the most interesting question in the years ahead. “Will he slide back into his old populist cant, or will he continue evolving as both a person and a leader?”

In considering the question of whether Canada is heading toward the kind of U.S.-style toxic partisanship I’ll be discussing at the panel this coming week, the different approaches of Ford and Poilievre — and the reaction of voters to them — may be one key to determining the answer in the near future.

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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5 days ago

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November 8, 2024

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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6 days ago

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November 8, 2024

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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6 days ago

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November 7, 2024

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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