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The Worst Is Yet To Come For Oil Prices – OilPrice.com

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The Worst Is Yet To Come For Oil Prices | OilPrice.com

Nick Cunningham

Nick Cunningham is an independent journalist, covering oil and gas, energy and environmental policy, and international politics. He is based in Portland, Oregon. 

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    Dashing hopes for some oil producers who may have thought negative prices were a weird quirk, the June WTI contract fell sharply on Tuesday.

    During intraday trading June contracts collapsed by more than 45 percent, falling close to $11 per barrel. The selloff demonstrated that the ruinous supply glut is not going away, and that the meltdown for the May contract was not just a bizarre anomaly, but representative of an acute state of oversupply in North America.

    In fact, there could be a rerun of negative prices in a month’s time, according to several analysts. “We believe prices are likely to remain at basement levels in the short-term with further shut-ins forthcoming – expect late-May to bring similar price movements as the June contract rolls over,” Raymond James wrote in a note on Tuesday.

    The malaise bled over into Brent prices, which collapsed below $20 per barrel by midday Tuesday, down more than 25 percent.

    While forecasts have suggested that U.S. oil production could fall by 1 or 2 or 3 million barrels per day (mb/d) by the end of 2021, depending on who you ask, the lack of storage and collapsing prices means that shut ins could begin to mount very quickly. “[T]he physical reality of a still massively oversupplied oil market will likely exert downward pressure on the June WTI contract,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Tuesday. “But with ultimately a finite amount of storage left to fill, production will soon need to fall sizeably to bring the market into balance, finally setting the stage for higher prices once demand gradually recovers.”

    Premium: Oil Storage Nears Its Limit

    “This inflection will play out in a matter of weeks, not months, with the market likely forced to balance before June,” Goldman analysts warned. In other words, the U.S. oil industry could lose several million barrels per day in the next few weeks in what Goldman analysts called a “violent rebalancing.”

    The crisis for the industry has entered a new phase, which will surely provoke more twists and turns. The Trump administration, flailing about, is trying to come up with ways to bailout the industry. On Monday, President Trump suggested that he would consider halting imports of oil from Saudi Arabia (“We’ll look at it”), while also reiterating his plan to fill up the strategic petroleum reserve with 75 million barrels of oil.

    On Tuesday, he tweeted that he ordered the Secretaries of Energy and Treasury to come up with a rescue plan.

    Also on Tuesday, the Texas Railroad Commission punted on the idea of mandating production cuts. Two of the three commissioners were uneasy with the idea of voting on the proposal. Ryan Sitton, the one commissioner in favor of requiring a 20 percent cut in the state’s production, argued that not voting was itself a decision, allowing the market to mete out production cuts in a disorderly fashion. “I don’t believe that inaction on our part is acceptable,” Sitton said.

    Premium: The Oil Sector That Will Suffer The Most

    Meanwhile, there are other ideas for government intervention. The oil and gas industry is lobbying the Federal Reserve to loosen its $600 billion lending facility to allow drillers to use funds to repay debt, according to Reuters.

    In addition, the “Treasury [Department] could guarantee loans to distressed firms in return for equity stakes or senior debt, and Washington could use its voting shares to compel shut-ins (i.e., as part of a bargain with OPEC+),” ClearView Energy Partners wrote in a note to clients.

    While the oil market drowns in oversupply, there also seems to be a glut of unusual policy responses coming from Washington aimed at bailing out the industry.

    But in the face of demand destruction on the order of 25 to 30 million barrels per day (mb/d), there is very little that the U.S. government can do to head off steep production losses and bankruptcies.

    By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

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      Telus skips Huawei, picks Ericsson and Nokia to build 5G network – Vancouver Sun

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      Telus has opted to go with Ericsson and Nokia — skipping Chinese tech giant Huawei — to build its 5G network.

      The Vancouver-based company announced Tuesday it had signed a deal with Sweden’s Ericsson and Finland’s Nokia to provide the components for its 5G network. No figures were given on how much the deal cost.

      “Telus has a successful track record of building globally leading networks with amazing speeds, robust quality and extensive coverage that are consistently recognized as the best in the world,” Telus president Darren Entwistle said  in a statement.

      “Our team is committed to rolling out superior network technology from urban to rural communities, fuelling our economy and driving innovation as we power Canadians into the 5G era through an unparalleled network experience.”

      Entwistle promised in his statement the 5G boost would support post-pandemic economic recovery, virtual health, remote work and other practices now common as a result of COVID-19.

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      Bell inks 5G equipment deal with Ericsson; leaves door open to Huawei – BNNBloomberg.ca

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      MONTREAL – Huawei Technologies Inc.’s ambitions to be a player in Canada’s 5G network took a major hit Tuesday as two of the country’s three largest telecom companies announced partnerships with the Chinese tech giant’s European rivals.

      Bell Canada announced Tuesday morning that Sweden-based Ericsson will be its second supplier of the radio access network equipment that has been Huawei’s main product line in Canada since entering the market in 2008. Earlier this year, Bell signed its first 5G wireless network supplier agreement with Nokia, a rival of Ericsson and China’s Huawei.

      Later Tuesday, Telus Corp. announced that it had also selected Ericsson, as well of Nokia of Finland, as suppliers for its 5G networks.

      Neither Bell nor Telus provided details on how much their contracts with Ericsson and Nokia were worth.

      Huawei’s participation in the construction of Canada’s 5G network has become a major sticking point between Ottawa and Washington. The U.S. has warned Canada, the United Kingdom and other allies that it will limit intelligence sharing with countries that have Huawei equipment in their 5G networks – citing the potential for spying by China, an allegation Huawei denies.

      “Huawei has worked closely with Bell in Canada for many years, helping them build one of the world’s leading 4G LTE networks,” Huawei Canada spokesman Alykhan Velshi said in a statement.

      He added that Huawei’s remains committed to Canada and looks forward to the federal government completing its 5G review and its decision about Huawei’s role in Canada.

      “We continue investing more than a quarter of a billion dollars a year in R&D in Canada. We continue building new research partnerships with Canada’s world-class universities. As we have for more than a decade, we continue to work with our Canadian telecom partners to help them build and support state-of-the-art networks that connect Canadians,” Velshi said.

      Ericsson, already a supplier of 4G LTE wireless and other technology to Bell and the main supplier for its rival Rogers Communications, also has a major research and development presence in Montreal.

      Bell said Ericsson will also support its rollout of 5G-enhanced fixed wireless home internet service to rural areas, which generally have less access to land-based fibre optics networks.

      On Tuesday, Bell indicated the door remains open to partnering with Huawei, depending on the outcome of the federal government’s review.

      “We’re working with multiple vendors to build our 5G network – as we did with our successful buildout of 4G LTE, which included Cisco, Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia and others,” said Bell spokesperson Marc Choma in an email to BNN Bloomberg. “Huawei has been a reliable and innovative partner in the past and we would consider working with them in 5G if the federal government allows their participation.”

      A spokesperson for Telus did not respond to BNN Bloomberg’s question about whether it is also open to partnering with Huawei on its 5G network if permitted by the government.

      Prior to the arrest of Huawei Technologies chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver in December 2018, the Chinese company wasn’t a household name in Canada.

      Since Meng’s arrest, which has sparked a major rift between China and Canada and focused worldwide attention on Huawei, the federal government has been undecided about whether the Chinese company will be allowed in Canada’s 5G networks – which are currently being assembled.

      Analysts have said Bell and Telus use Huawei extensively in their fourth-generation networks and would be more affected by a Huawei ban than their rival Rogers Communications, which has predominantly used Ericsson network gear.

      Besides Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia, there are other companies that want a piece of the 5G network upgrades.

      Samsung Electronics has announced a deal to supply equipment for Videotron’s wireless network in the province of Quebec and the Ottawa region of Ontario.

      With files from BNN Bloomberg

      BNN Bloomberg is a division of Bell Media, which is owned by BCE.

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      Telus selects Nokia, Ericsson as 5G suppliers – Yahoo Canada Finance

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      Toronto, Canada - June 16, 2019: TELUS Scarborough office building in Toronto, canada. Telus is a Canadian telecommunications company that provides telecommunications products and services.

      Vancouver-based national carrier Telus has selected Nokia and Ericsson as its 5G vendors, a press release from the company said. 

      The news comes the same day that Bell announced it too would use Ericsson to provide radio access network (RAN) equipment. 

      “Our team is committed to rolling out superior network technology from urban to rural communities, fueling our economy and driving innovation as we power Canadians into the 5G era through an unparalleled network experience,” Telus’ CEO Darren Entwistle said in the release. 

      “Our 5G deployment will support economic growth and diversity that will be essential for the virtualization of health, education, teleworking, and stimulating the economic growth and recovery given the impact of COVID-19.”

      During its Q1 2020 earnings, CFO Doug French said its focus right now is to help its customers during the COVID-19 crisis.

      In its Q4 2019 earnings, the carrier said it was not going to pre-announce its 5G launch plans but that its initial module, or the first phase of the 5G rollout, would be with Huawei until the government approves its RFP.

      Bell and Telus use Huawei’s network equipment in some areas. The federal government is still reviewing whether or not it intends to ban the Chinese telecommunications manufacturer from participating in Canada’s 5G rollout.

      Rogers also uses Ericsson as a 5G vendor.

      <p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;and&nbsp;Android&nbsp;and sign up for the&nbsp;Yahoo Finance Canada Weekly Brief.&nbsp;” data-reactid=”31″>Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android and sign up for the Yahoo Finance Canada Weekly Brief. 

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