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The year in politics – Bangkok Post

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Exercising their ballot: People turn up to cast their vote during advance voting ahead of the March 24 general election at Matthayom Ban Bang Kapi School in Bang Kapi district.

Long-awaited poll

1. After being put off six times when it was first promised by junta leader Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the much awaited general election was finally held on March 24 under a complex new electoral system with 500 seats up for grabs.

The poll was held under a new rule in which a single ballot was used and votes cast for constituency candidates were used to calculate party-list seats to be distributed among qualified parties.

Under the new regulation, if the number of constituency seats won by a party exceeded the estimated share of overall House seats allowed, it would not get party-list seats.

The election rules put forth by the Constitution Drafting Committee under an organic law on the election of MPs were heavily criticised and did exactly what political observers said they would — favour medium-sized and small parties.

It turned out that 27 political parties won, with 13 micro parties receiving one party-list seat each.

While the lead opposition Pheu Thai Party managed to capture the lion’s share of seats — 136 in total — political observers said it was far fewer than the 200 House seats it was expected to win.

The Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), which nominated Gen Prayut as its prime ministerial candidate, did better than expected, winning 117 seats from the constituency and party-list systems.

The party was expected to capture only around 60 to 80 seats.

New alliance: Key members of parties meet Palang Pracharath Party heavyweights to confirm they will form part of the coalition government in early June.

The poll served up some surprises, with the Future Forward Party springing the biggest shock by grabbing 81 seats mostly from the party-list system. This new outfit was expected to win no more than 30 to 40 seats.

The Democrat Party was the biggest loser. It was expected to retain 100 seats, yet it captured no more than 53, none of which were in Bangkok, its political stronghold. Abhisit Vejjajiva stepped down as party leader after the shocking defeat.

A few days after the poll, the Pheu Thai announced it was joining up with allies to form a coalition government with a total of 255 seats — a move that proved to be premature.

A coalition of 19 parties

2.A hundred and eight days after the general election, PPRP eventually formed a razor-thin coalition government with 254 seats and 19 political parties under its wing.

The PPRP faced some tough demands from its potential partners, including the 11 small parties that were the first to back the PPRP-led alliance. The Democrat and Bhumjaithai parties teamed up as a “political duo” to use their combined 103 MPs in a move to increase their bargaining power for coveted cabinet seats.

The Democrat Party drove a hard bargain by putting forward its patriarch, veteran politician Chuan Leekpai, for the House Speaker’s post — a seat usually held by a core coalition party.

Backed by PPRP deputy leader and list-MP Nataphol Teepsuwan, Mr Chuan defeated Pheu Thai’s Sompong Amornwiwat in a 258-235 vote, with one abstention. To political observers, this move signalled the deal to form a PPRP-led coalition had been sealed.

After the appointment of the chief of the legislative branch came the prime ministerial vote, which was a contest between PPRP’s Gen Prayut and Future Forward Party (FFP) leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.

However, Gen Prayut was a shoo-in with the support of 250 appointed senators, winning 500 votes in the joint House-Senate voting session. Mr Thanathorn only got 244 votes with Mr Chuan, Senate Speaker Pornpetch Wichitcholachai, and Bhumjaithai MP for Si Sa Ket Siripong Angkasakulkiat abstaining.

Mr Siripong claimed he abstained because he wanted to keep his campaign promise that he would back party leader Anutin Charnvirakul for the post.

Ahead of the vote, Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva stepped down as party list-MP.

Clearly he couldn’t bring himself to vote for Gen Prayut to remain as PM after failing to talk his party out of joining the PPRP-led alliance and working instead as an independent opposition party.

Army chief’s ‘talk show’

3.It is not often that people witness the spectacle of an army chief wielding a microphone on stage to lash out at political characters accused of undermining national security.

Airing views: Army chief Apirat Kongsompong takes to the podium to speak on threats to national security on Oct 11.

On Oct 11, Army commander-in-chief Apirat Kongsompong held the audience rapt when he addressed a lecture attended by some 500 people from public and state sectors.

The subject of the lecture was loosely translated as “Our Land in the Contest of National Security”.

For about an hour, Gen Apirat analysed the state of police and took aim at certain politicians in the so-called “pro-democracy” camp.

The hawkish army chief spoke at length of a new national threat that has manifested in the form of “hybrid warfare”, which apparently combines both conventional and non-conventional warfare strategies.

Non-conventional war tactics involves the employment of an irregular force such as the radicals who were behind random bombings in Bangkok over the past few years.

The conventional strategy, meanwhile, pertains to the alleged propaganda devised by an older generation of people, most in their early 70s, who cling to communism and anti-monarchist ideals.

Gen Apirat insisted this threat was masterminded by foreign-educated elements and academics to drive propagandist campaigns and fake news through social media to further their cause and win support from people, especially the young.

The army commander also lambasted an academic for suggesting that the charter’s Section 1, which stipulates that Thailand is one indivisible kingdom, be amended.

The suggestion was made at a public discussion on changes to the constitution in Pattani on Oct 4, with some opposition leaders attending.

Thanathorn ejected

4. FFP leader Thanathorn was stripped of his MP status by the Constitutional Court on Nov 20 in relation to his controversial shareholding in a media organisation.

However, this may not be the end of his predicament.

Thrown out: Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit bows as he is asked to leave the first parliament meeting at the TOT auditorium on May 25 due to the Constitutional Court’s suspension of his MP status. The court order stemmed from a media shareholding case against him.

Mr Thanathorn had been dogged by the V-Luck media shareholding saga soon after he was first suspended as MP by the Constitutional Court.

The election law prohibits MP candidates from owning shares in media companies, and Mr Thanathorn reportedly held 675,000 shares in V-Luck Media Co when the FFP submitted the names of its party-list MP candidates to the Election Commission on Feb 6.

EC secretary-general Pol Col Jarungvith Phumma said Mr Thanathorn now stands accused of violating Section 151 of the law on the election of MPs.

The section stipulates that those who apply for MP status despite knowing full well that they do not meet qualification requirements can face a jail term of up to 10 years, a fine of between 20,000 and 200,000 baht, and also may have their voting rights suspended for 20 years.

Pol Col Jarungvith said an inquiry committee investigating the case is expected to include the court’s ruling in its consideration because the ruling states says Mr Thanathorn was not qualified to apply as an election candidate.

While considering the case, the Constitutional Court refused to look at any documents, including those showing the shares had been transferred, which were supplied by Mr Thanathorn in his defence.

The court reasoned that the documents were issued by V-Luck Media and none of them were official documents recorded by the Business Development Department to prove the share transfer.

Mr Thanathorn, dubbed as the brightest rising star of politics, claimed the EC rushed the media shareholding case before the EC sub-committee finished its probe.

He then filed a lawsuit against all seven election commissioners at the Criminal Court for Corruption and Misconduct Cases, only to see it being thrown out with the court saying the commissioners had full authority to forward the share-holding case to the Constitutional Court.

Party’s early death

5.In March, the country was kept in suspense over the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the fate of the Thai Raksa Chart Party, which found itself mired in problems for nominating Princess Ubolratana as its prime ministerial candidate.

The moment of truth came on March 7, when the court voted unanimously to dissolve the party. Thai Raksa Chart was believed to have close ties with Pheu Thai Party, which was thought to be under former PM Thaksin Shinawatra’s wing.

The court also voted 6:3 to ban Thai Raksa Chart’s 14 executives from politics for 10 years.

The party execs are also banned from setting up parties or becoming executives of other parties for 10 years.

Final verdict: Executives of the Thai Raksa Chart Party arrive at the Constitutional Court which dissolved the party in March.

Thai Raksa Chart has suffered the same fate as Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai Party, which was dissolved in 2007 by a constitutional tribunal for violating an electoral law.

Its 111 executives subsequently had their political rights revoked for five years.

The People Power Party, said to be Thai Rak Thai’s reincarnation, was also disbanded by the Constitutional Court, and its 37 executive banned for five years.

On Feb 14, the Constitutional Court accepted a petition from the EC in relation to Thai Raksa Chart’s nomination of Princess Ubolratana as a prime ministerial candidate.

His Majesty the King then commanded that members of the royal family are above politics and cannot hold political positions.

In its defence, Thai Raksa Chart said it had received the princess’s consent and that there were no laws barring her from becoming a prime minister as she has relinquished all her royal titles.

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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