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Theo Argitis: Conservatives selling ‘common sense,’ but these economic times require complex trade-offs

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While Pierre Poilievre probably wasn’t giving them much thought this weekend during his Conservative Party’s policy convention in Quebec City, G20 leaders were also meeting 11,000 kilometres away in New Delhi to deliberate on some of the world’s biggest challenges.

Their assessment was sobering. The leaders, who included Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, put out a declaration warning that “cascading crises” were posing major challenges to long-term growth, with elevated levels of uncertainty and risks tilted to the downside.

The mood in Quebec City, by comparison, was more assured and optimistic — not just because Conservatives are currently holding a large lead in the polls, but by design.

Like all challengers making the case for a change in government, Poilievre is raising expectations at a time when the current zeitgeist in economic policy making is to lower them.

In his one-hour long keynote speech on Friday, Poilievre delivered a treatise on how Canada is “broken” and Canadians are hurting, and promised to bring back better days with “common-sense” solutions to shrink government, lower taxes and reduce crime. It was all very familiar terrain for Poilievre, including the built-in rallying cry for change centred around his “Bring it Home” slogan. It’s Poilievre’s version of hope and change, and sunny ways.

What there is little of in Conservative messaging, however, is the notion that Canada’s government — like others in the G20 — is facing an incredibly complex landscape in the next few years that will not produce easy wins. Common sense implies there are simple fixes to big problems, and there are not.

We have entered an era of supply-constrained economies and policy trade-offs — higher interest rates, more inflation, aging demographics, slower long-term growth, less globalization and more geopolitical conflict.

Promises to ease the cost-of-living crisis, make housing more affordable, drive incomes higher, spend more on defence, and stoke energy development without undermining climate transition efforts are easier said than done.

It may turn out that many of Poilievre’s ideas and proposals will indeed be effective, and produce positive change. But the big challenges run deep.

It’s not apparent, for example, how Canada can resolve the housing affordability crisis without a major correction in home prices — even if Poilievre were to somehow manage to fuel new construction or accelerate growth in real wages. The gap in Canada between home values and incomes is just too great.

One short-term solution — outside of a major recession — would be a sudden curtailment of international migration flows, a big can of worms.

Even if Poilievre did have the capacity to somehow engineer a drop in home prices to help first-time home buyers, it’s not clear he would. It would prove extremely unpopular with the vast majority of Canadian homeowners sitting on all that equity wealth. Housing has become a big mess of a file.

Meanwhile, calls for smaller government, balanced budgets and lower taxes are crowd favourites but the longer-term structural forces in the economy — from aging to industrial policy and energy transition — suggest bigger government may be here to stay. Poilievre has made it clear, for example, that his climate plan will rely on technology and not taxes to drive down carbon emission. But that’s going to be very expensive, as the Liberals are already finding out.

How will Conservatives finance their promise to increase defence spending? Will the party forego handing out tax cuts in order to avoid stoking inflation?

Where are the Conservatives on industrial policy and supply-chain resiliency — new trends in policy making that put the state at the centre of economic development?

Macroeconomic policy, in particular, could prove to be a big headache.

What if inflation fails to come down fully to two per cent — let’s say it gets stuck at three per cent or higher due to all these emerging supply hurdles. Would the Conservatives be willing to tolerate a higher inflation rate, or would they support further activity-killing increases in interest rates to squeeze out all inflationary pressures?

It’s a trade-off that will have disparate impacts. Young and indebted Canadians would welcome a bit of inflation in exchange for lower interest rates. Older Canadians are impacted more negatively by inflation and are more likely to gain from higher interest rates.

Straddling the generational fault line, in fact, may turn out to be one of the toughest tasks any future government will face in coming years.

There’s a lot of policy messiness on the horizon that Poilievre is unlikely to dwell on — at least publicly — as his party plots its path toward the next election.

It’s not that Conservatives wouldn’t love to talk about the tough choices to be made, and how there are no more free lunches to be had and the importance of living within your means. This is the stuff they’ve traditionally been made of.

It’s just that one of the advantages of not being an incumbent is that you don’t have a record to defend, leaving you free to focus on hope-and-change messaging while the incumbent answers for the policy choices they have made in government. And as the G20 reminded us this weekend, there are no easy answers out there.

Theo Argitis is managing director at Compass Rose Group

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Statistics Canada reports real GDP grew 0.2% in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says real gross domestic product grew 0.2 per cent in July, following essentially no change in June, helped by strength in the retail trade sector.

The agency says the growth came as services-producing industries grew 0.2 per cent for the month.

The retail trade sector was the largest contributor to overall growth in July as it gained one per cent, helped by the motor vehicles and parts dealers subsector which gained 2.8 per cent.

The public sector aggregate, which includes the educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration sectors, gained 0.3 per cent, while the finance and insurance sector rose 0.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, goods-producing industries gained 0.1 per cent in July as the utilities sector rose 1.3 per cent and the manufacturing sector grew 0.3 per cent.

Statistics Canada’s early estimate for August suggests real GDP for the month was essentially unchanged, as increases in oil and gas extraction and the public sector were offset by decreases in manufacturing and transportation and warehousing.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.

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S&P/TSX composite tops 24,000 points for first time, U.S. markets also rise Thursday

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index closed above 24,000 for the first time Thursday as strength in base metals and other sectors outweighed losses in energy, while U.S. markets also rose and the S&P 500 notched another record as well.

“Another day, another record,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

“The path of least resistance continues to be higher.”

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 127.95 points at 24,033.83.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 260.36 points at 42,175.11. The S&P 500 index was up 23.11 points at 5,745.37, while the Nasdaq composite was up 108.09 points at 18,190.29.

Markets continue to be optimistic about an economic soft landing, said Kourkafas, after the U.S. Federal Reserve last week announced an outsized cut to its key interest rate following months of speculation about when it would start easing policy.

Economic data Thursday added to the story that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite higher rates, said Kourkafas.

The U.S. economy grew at a three-per-cent annual rate in the second quarter, one report said, picking up from the first quarter of the year. Another report showed fewer U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week.

The data shows “the economy remains on strong footing while the Fed is pivoting now in a decisive way towards an easier policy,” said Kourkafas.

The Fed’s decisive move gave investors more reason to believe that a soft landing is still the “base case scenario,” he said, “and likely reduces the downside risks for a recession by having the Fed moving too late or falling behind the curve.”

North of the border, the TSX usually gets a boost from Wall St. strength, said Kourkafas, but on Thursday the index also reflected some optimism of its own as the Bank of Canada has already cut rates three times to address weakening in the economy.

“The Bank of Canada likely now will be emboldened by the Fed,” he said.

“They didn’t want to move too far ahead of the Fed, and now that the Fed moved in a bigger-than-expected way, that provides more room for the Bank of Canada to cut as aggressively as needed to support the economy, given that inflation is within the target range.”

The TSX has also been benefiting from strength in materials after China’s central bank announced several measures meant to support the company’s economy, said Kourkafas.

However, energy stocks dragged on the Canadian index as oil prices fell Thursday following a report that Saudi Arabia was preparing to abandon its unofficial US$100-per-barrel price target for crude as it prepares to increase its output.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.22 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$2.02 at US$67.67 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down seven cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$10.20 at US$2,694.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 15 cents at US$4.64 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stocks also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal sector, while U.S. stock markets were also higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was 143.00 points at 24,048.88.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 174.22 points at 42,088.97. The S&P 500 index was up 10.23 points at 5,732.49, while the Nasdaq composite was up 30.02 points at 18,112.23.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.23 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$1.68 at US$68.01 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down six cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$4.40 at US$2,689.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 13 cents at US$4.62 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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