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This investment expert just warned of a ‘decade-long’ smackdown of US housing — saying high rates will ‘crush’ real estate for years. He sees this asset jumping 67%

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‘There will be a fallout’: This investment expert just warned of a ‘decade-long’ smackdown of US housing — saying high rates will ‘crush’ real estate for years. He sees this asset jumping 67%

The U.S. housing market is in for a prolonged slump, according to at least one expert.

In a recent interview with Fox Business, ProChain Capital President David Tawil discussed the Federal Reserve’s ongoing battle with inflation and why a prolonged period of high interest rates could “crush some very interest-rate-sensitive industries, such as real estate.”

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Tawil predicted a “multiyear, maybe decade-long fallout,” starting with commercial property and spilling over into the residential sector later.

“Housing has been incredibly strong despite all of the turmoil going on with respect to rates,” he said.

“There will be a fallout.”

Tawil’s thesis

“I think rate hikes are on the horizon,” Tawil said in the interview. His thesis is based on the fact that core inflation – the surging price of goods and services excluding volatile elements like food and fuel – have proven stickier than expected.

Whereas overall inflation cooled to 3% in June, according to the Fed’s latest numbers, the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, remained elevated at 4.8%. This measure has been persistently and stubbornly high for the past few years.

Read more: Thanks to Jeff Bezos, you can now use $100 to cash in on prime real estate — without the headache of being a landlord. Here’s how

In a recent study, researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco went a step further to explore what they call “supercore inflation,” which excludes the prices of food, fuel and housing. The researchers speculated that this subcategory of price pressure could be persistent, even if the job market cools down.

If that proves true, the central bank may have to keep interest rates elevated longer, a situation that Tawil believes could force the real estate market into a difficult period of adjustment. Faced with the prospect of refinancing properties at high rates, many owners, in both commercial and residential sectors, may decide to cut their losses and sell, which would put more inventory on the market, causing prices to fall.

He suggests investors look elsewhere to protect or expand their capital. Specifically, his team is focused on technology and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

The crypto option

Tawil’s team is bullish on technology, especially crypto. Tawil’s year-end target for Bitcoin is $50,000, roughly 67% higher than the digital currency’s current price.

The optimism is based on the flow of new institutional capital into the sector. Tawil points out that industry giants such as Blackrock have applications pending for regulatory approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Bloomberg’s ETF analyst Eric Balchunas estimates the move could unlock roughly $30 trillion in additional capital — a game changer for the controversial industry.

Bitcoin currently trades at just under $30,000. It’s up around 76% year-to-date, handily outperforming the commercial real estate sector and even the S&P 500.

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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