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These 6 charts show how sanctions are crushing Iran’s economy – CNBC

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General view of an Iran flag on January 12, 2019 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Matthew Ashton – AMA | Getty Images

Iran’s economy is crumbling after years of U.S. sanctions — and Tehran insists Washington must suspend those restrictions before the two sides can return to nuclear talks.

Both countries have indicated interest in returning to the negotiating table, but neither the U.S. nor Iran wants to give in to the other.

Iran appears to have calculated that it can withstand the economic pressure that accumulates as it takes a harder position against the Biden administration.
Matthew Bey
Senior global analyst, Stratfor

Iran signed the nuclear deal — officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — with the U.S., China, France, Russia, the U.K. and Germany in 2015.

But former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and imposed sanctions under a “maximum pressure” policy to force the regime back to negotiations.

Here are six charts that show how Iran’s economy is struggling.

Iran’s economy shrinks

Iran’s economy contracted an estimated 4.99% in 2020, steadily shrinking since 2017.

In comparison, the Islamic Republic enjoyed a sharp economic growth of 12.5% in 2016 after the nuclear deal was signed. However, that reprieve was short-lived.

“It’s impossible to know precisely what the numbers would be had there been no sanctions,” said Abrams, former U.S. special representative for Iran during the Trump administration who is nowa senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). “But I think it’s pretty clear that the sanctions have had an impact on the Iranian economy and on the government budget.”

The International Monetary Fund sees Iran’s gross domestic product growing 3% in 2021.

Oil production and exports hurt

The sanctions lowered Iran’s ability to sell oil and prevented them from repatriating money from energy sales, Abrams said.

“There are billions of dollars sitting in banks in Iraq and China and South Korea … that Iran cannot get its hands on due to the sanctions,” he said.

According to IMF estimates, the Islamic Republic’s oil exports are expected to continue falling in 2021.

World trade with Iran falls

Exports and imports both fell sharply after the sanctions were reimposed. Besides oil, Iran’s industrial metals, a large source of the country’s export revenue, were also sanctioned.

IMF estimates suggest Iran fell into a trade deficit of $3.45 billion in 2020. The country had a trade surplus of $6.11 billion in 2019, according to the IMF.

Inflation spikes

The Iranian currency has dropped steadily since early 2018, but Matthew Bey, a senior global analyst at Stratfor, said the rial has “somewhat stabilized.”

Still, its value on the unofficial market stands at more than 250,000 rials per dollar — that’s far from the central bank’s official rate of 42,000 rials per dollar that’s used for most imported goods.

A weaker currency makes imports more expensive for locals, and high inflation means the cost of living is rising at a time when the people are already struggling with a weak economy and job market.

Weak job market

High unemployment rates are set to increase even further given Iran’s economic struggles.

An estimated 12.4% of the population is expected to be out of work in 2021, according to IMF projections.

Widening fiscal deficit

Iran’s government is spending beyond its means, and has seen a widening fiscal deficit. While this is not always a bad thing, it could restrict the country’s ability to improve economic activity and recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

“I’m sure that the national budget is of some interest (to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) because he would want money for the Revolutionary Guards, for Hezbollah, for the Shia militias in Iraq and for various other expenses that they have,” said Abrams from CFR.

However, he pointed out that the usual concerns of a civil government — such as national income, average family income, rate of inflation, or jobless rate — may not be important to the religious leaders.

Road to a U.S.-Iran deal?

An agreement between the U.S. and Iran is not impossible — but only if each side softens its current stance, according to Bey.

The United States, Bey said, would have to accept that sanctions relief is a necessary step toward getting Iran to comply with the JCPOA. On the other hand, Iran has to recognize that if it doesn’t take “substantial steps,” the Biden administration cannot fully suspend sanctions.

Once you’ve gone back to the JCPOA, you have lifted most of the significant economic sanctions. Therefore, you have eliminated most of your leverage to get Iran to agree to these additional things…
Elliott Abrams
Council on Foreign Relations

Abrams, on the other hand, said there’s a “very significant problem” in the Biden administration’s Iran policy, which is to revive the nuclear deal before negotiating a broader agreement that includes Iran’s missile program and its support for militias in the region.

“But once you’ve gone back to the JCPOA, you have lifted most of the significant economic sanctions,” he said. “Therefore, you have eliminated most of your leverage to get Iran to agree to these additional things that it does not want … to agree to and I don’t see why it would agree at that point,” he added.

Stratfor’s Bey pointed out that Tehran has insisted on sanctions being lifted before talks begin.

“Iran appears to have calculated that it can withstand the economic pressure that accumulates as it takes a harder position against the Biden administration,” Bey said.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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