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This business claims it built a better COVID-19 forecasting model but can't get government to bite – CBC.ca

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As COVID-19 continues to surge across the country, a Canadian company says it’s created software to better predict how the virus will spread and help slow the second wave, but it can’t break through bureaucracy to show health officials how it can help.

“Everybody’s running around reacting so much, they won’t even sit down and take a serious look at the innovation we’ve built,” said Paul Minshull, CEO of Scarsin Corporation.

Scarsin, based in Markham, Ont., north of Toronto, specializes in creating forecasts for the pharmaceutical industry to predict how different treatments affect patient outcomes in cancer, diabetes and infectious diseases. Its clients include multinational drug makers Bayer, Eli Lilly, Gilead, Jansen, and Pfizer.

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“We are one of the top firms in the world at doing this kind of work,” said Minshull. “The global 500 companies that hire us all focus on the exact things that Canada needs in the pandemic today.”

So last spring, when the federal government put out the call for industry to pivot to fighting COVID-19, harnessing the “innovative power of Canadian researchers and businesses,” Scarsin dropped everything to help fight the pandemic.

It assigned a third of its staff, including a PhD who had previous experience modeling a pandemic — the H1N swine flu of 2009 — to come up with a better forecasting model for COVID-19.

Forecast models, based on demographics, testing numbers, positivity rates and more can help leaders choose measures to contain the virus. Modelling can also help predict when hospitals could be overwhelmed with patients.

Scarsin said its software can do localized forecasts for the 92 health regions across the country and consolidate them to create a national model.

A powerful platform

Four experts who reviewed the Scarsin platform for CBC News said they haven’t seen any similar models in Canada.

The company’s COVID-19 program tracks 70 possible parameters, which can be adjusted daily. Neither Ontario nor Ottawa has published a model with a similar design or number of inputs.

The parameters include testing rates, locations people were infected, travel between communities, mask use, household demographics, interventions and more.

It can also forecast how many people will experience mild illness or need hospitalization and separate the results by four different age groups.

It even uses location data released by Apple, Facebook and Googleto assess if people are reducing social interactions in line with public health directives.

“It looks like a pretty powerful approach,” said Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, “[Scarsin has] a lot of flexibility, adaptability there.”

Epidemiologist Colin Furness with the University of Toronto says Scarin’s forecasting system ‘looks like a pretty powerful approach’ to help manage the pandemic. (Evan Mitsui/CBC News)

Scarsin said a key difference between its model and those released by governments is that the company’s system can compare different ways to curb the spread of the virus.

For example, Scarsin said its forecasting model can provide predictions for issues such as how a temporary school closure might affect social interactions and the infection rate compared to the closure of fitness facilities or indoor dining.

The interventions one region may take compared to another to control COVID-19 would depend on the unique demographics of its population and characteristics of its businesses, the company said.

Raywat Deonandan, an epidemiologist at the University of Ottawa, said the ability of Scarsin’s forecasts to be responsive in comparing interventions could help public health leaders make better decisions to better control COVID-19.

“That could have a meaningful impact on the path of the pandemic,” said Deonandan.

Ashleigh Tuite, an infectious disease epidemiologist and mathematical modeler with the University of Toronto, agrees, also suggesting the customizable localized data would be particularly useful.

Raywat Deonandan, an epidemiologist with the University of Ottawa, says forecasts compare different ways to reduce viral spread could help health officials make better decisions to control COVID-19. (Evan Mitsui/CBC News)

“I’ve heard from local public health units, you know, there’s this desire to be able to have local level models, and there’s just not the capacity at this point for that.”

She sees it as a ready-to-use solution and would like to see Ontario consider giving Scarsin’s system to health regions across the province.

Little government interest

So far, though, Scarsin has struggled to get health officials to look at its model, starting with Ottawa and the Public Health Agency of Canada.

A manager with PHAC told Scarsin in an email  he would try to get the software checked out by his department “because we have a use for it and don’t have the capacity to do it internally,” but nothing came of the exchange.

Scarsin also applied to a federal government program looking for prototypes to “help combat current and future outbreaks of the novel coronavirus“.

Officials with that program rejected Scarsin’s application, saying its model would be too hard to build and test and potentially too expensive for government departments to license and operate.

It took five months for that rejection to come through.

By then, Scarsin had already built and paid for the system on its own.

Passed over by the province

In May an employee at the Ontario Ministry of Health said in an email to Scarsin that the company’s program “is a great solution.”

It was told to submit the idea to the Ontario Together Fund, a $50 million program to help companies advance ideas or products to battle COVID-19.

Five months later Scarsin had still not received a decision about the application or any feedback.

The company was told the fund was “currently seeking decisions on over 6,000 proposals” that were put forward to the government.

“The process runs like the normal bureaucracy,” said Minshull. “[It’s as though] I’m trying to replace a sidewalk in a subdivision.”

One region is using the software

Scarsin also contacted more than a dozen Ontario health regions and cities, including Toronto, Peel and York.

Only York Region expressed interest, and it began using the Scarsin model in September.

This region north of Toronto includes Markham, Richmond Hill, Vaughan and six other cities with a combined population of about 1.2 million.

Katarina Garpenfeldt, an official with Ontario’s York Region says Scarsin’s forecasting system will help the community manage the COVID-19 pandemic. (Evan Mitsui/CBC News)

“I haven’t come across anything that has the capacity that Scarsin had shown us,” said Katarina Garpenfeldt, the supervisor of advanced planning in the region’s Health Emergency Operation Centre

She said the model helps predict how the pandemic might affect the community and allows health officials to “play with the variables” to see how different interventions could pan out.

“What does it mean if 25 per cent of the students opt in for remote learning, and then all of a sudden that number increases to 40 per cent of students opting in for remote learning? How does that impact the anticipated spread of the disease or the case count?”

A proven prediction

The Ontario government has taken heavy criticism for ignoring the advice of public health experts and relaxing restrictions on businesses to help the economy as infections had been rising for weeks.

Last Friday, record-breaking case counts forced Ontario to abruptly revise its new colour-coded plan for COVID-19 restrictions.

However, ​Scarsin’s modelling found that even Ontario’s most “stringent measures” — the control red zones — will not be enough to slow the spread of the virus and prevent lockdowns.

A graph from Scarsin’s forecast six weeks ago, predicting Ontario would hit more than 1500 daily cases of COVID-19 in November. (Scarsin Corporation Graph)

One of Scarsin’s previous forecasts for Ontario proved to be prescient.

On Oct. 2, in a blog post called “Wave 2 will be late, long and local in Ontario,” the company forecasted that Ontario would have a minimum of 1,540 new cases per day by Remembrance Day.

Ontario hit 1,575 cases on Nov 12.

The COVID-19 Modelling Collaborative, a joint effort of scientists and physicians from the University of Toronto, University Health Network and Sunnybrook Hospital — which informs the group of experts the Ontario government uses to implement health policy — predicted the second wave would peak at 1,000 new cases per day in mid to late October.

Good forecasting saves lives

“I think our lives do depend upon good forecasting,” said Chris Bauch, a professor of applied mathematics at Ontario’s University of Waterloo with a specialty in building complex models about infectious disease transmission.

“The whole idea of flattening the curve was based on mathematical models, and that undoubtedly saved many thousands of lives.”

Bauch, who has built two COVID-19 models himself, said he was surprised how quickly Scarsin developed their system and that it was “a pretty amazing tool.”

Throughout the pandemic, the importance of data and forecasting in fighting infectious disease has become increasingly apparent.

Despite that, experts say there’s not an overarching forecasting strategy.

Instead, Tuite said, forecasting tends to be done by small groups of experts who work together on specific problems, or who may be recruited by governments as advisors as has been the case durIng COVID-19.

“I think people may imagine that each province or each health region, or, you know, the country has this master model that’s reading all of the data that’s being generated and producing forecasts every day that are getting updated,” explained Tuite, “but there isn’t, or there hasn’t been to date, a really unified approach to modelling.”

Canada could lose out

Scarsin said it has spent $1.6 million on its COVID-19 model.

The company offered to deploy the system for the federal government across Canada for less than $2 million.

“We priced that project at a level that I can tell you, we would not have made any money on it,” said Minshull.

Now, Scarsin has started pursuing sales in the U.S. and with private companies to recover its investment.

But it may yet have another option at home.

There’s now a new $10 million federal grant program for researchers to develop forecasting tools.

The federal government set it up because – according to the government website – the pandemic has made clear “that Canada would benefit from additional skilled modelling experts.”

Scarsin may apply.

“Some would say that’s maybe not the smartest decision as a CEO,” said Minshull. “But I can’t help but do it.”

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What’s open and closed Good Friday, Easter Monday in Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara Region – Global News

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The Easter long weekend is upon us, bringing a rare four-day holiday to some in the Hamilton area. Several businesses and services will be closed on Good Friday (March 29), Easter Sunday (March 31) or Easter Monday (April 1).

Here’s a list of some things that will or will not be operating in Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara Region.

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Administrative offices: Offices are closed on Friday and Monday.

Licensing and bylaw services: Licensing and bylaw phone queue line will be closed on Friday and Monday. Service will resume on Tuesday.

Green bin, garbage and recycling: No collection on Good Friday. Friday’s pickup will occur on Saturday (March 31). Monday will be a regular collection day (April 1). The city says all materials must be at the curb by 7 a.m. Community recycling centres and transfer stations will be closed Friday and Monday.

HSR bus: Buses will operate on a Sunday/holiday schedule Friday and a regular schedule on Monday.

GO Transit: Trains and buses are operating on a Sunday schedule Friday.

ATS DARTS: Service will be operating with holiday service hours on Friday and Monday. Subscription trips on DARTS, with the exception of dialysis, are cancelled for Friday and Monday. ATS customer service will also be closed on Friday and Monday.

Ontario Works: The program, including the special supports, will be closed Friday and Monday. Phone service will resume on Tuesday.

Recreation centres: Closed on Friday and Monday.

Hamilton civic museums: Dundurn National Historic Site, the Hamilton Military Museum and the Hamilton Museum of Steam and Technology will be closed on Friday and Monday.

Tourism Hamilton visitor information centre: Closed Friday to Monday.

Hamilton Public Library: All HPL branches are closed on Good Friday, Easter Sunday and Easter Monday. Branches are open on Saturday and regular hours resume Tuesday, April 2

Social services: All Ontario Works offices, special supports and the housing services office will be closed on Friday and Monday.

Senior centres: Closed Friday and Sunday. Senior clubs will be running modified program schedules from Friday to Monday.

Arenas: Closed to public programming Friday, Sunday and Monday.

Animal services: Closed Good Friday, Sunday and Easter Monday.

Canadian Warplane Heritage Museum in Mount Hope: Open Good Friday, Saturday and Easter Sunday. Closed Easter Monday.

Burlington

Government offices: Local government such as city hall, municipal offices and facilities will be closed on Good Friday and Easter Monday.


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Administrative services: Services including parks, roads and forestry will be closed on Friday and Monday. Only snow removal and urgent services will be provided.

Animal Shelter and Control: Closed all weekend, Friday through Monday. Emergencies can be called in to 905-335-7777.

Recreation centres: Some city pools, arenas and community centres will be operational on a limited schedule. Visit burlington.ca/dropinandplay for details. Some outdoor recreation facilities will also be open, weather permitting. Visit burlington.ca/outdoorplay for more information. Tyandaga Golf Course will be closed. The tentative season opener is set for April 6.

Halton Provincial Offences Court: Closed on Friday and Monday.

Free parking: Available Friday and Monday in the downtown core in municipal lots, on-street and in the parking garage, however, the Waterfront parking lots (east and west) do not provide free parking on statutory holidays. Parking exemptions are required to park overnight on city streets and for longer than five hours. Visit burlington.ca/parkingexemptions for more.

Burlington Transit: Transit will operate a holiday schedule Sunday. The downtown transit terminal, specialized dispatch and the administration office will be closed on March 29. Monday is a regular schedule.

Niagara Region

Government offices: City halls, the Enterprise Centre and administration offices are all closed on Good Friday. Some offices, like St. Catharines, will reopen on Easter Monday.

Parks, recreation and culture services: All City recreation centres are closed on Good Friday and Easter Sunday. Administration offices are all closed on Friday. Some will be closed on Monday. St. Catharines Kiwanis Aquatics Centre is closed Friday, but open on Saturday. Seymour-Hannah Sports and Entertainment Centre is closed Friday, but open regular hours through the weekend and Monday.

Community centres: All older adult centres and arenas will either be closed or have reduced hours on Friday, Sunday and Monday.

St. Catharines Museum; Welland Canals Centre: Both facilities will be closed on Good Friday but open the rest of the long weekend between 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.

Niagara Regional Transit: Both St. Catharines and Niagara Falls buses will operate on a holiday schedule for Good Friday. Regional, Fort Erie and Welland service will not be running Friday. The agency will have regular hours on Easter Sunday and Monday.

Canada Post: No collection or mail delivery on Monday. Most post offices operated by the private sector will also be closed during business hours.

Grocery stores: Major grocery stores like Fortinos, Metro, FreshCo and No Frills will be closed on Good Friday and Easter Sunday.

Shoppers Drug Mart: Some locations in the city will be open on Good Friday and Easter Sunday, but not all. Holiday hours can be seen on the Shoppers store locator map.

Rexall: Some outlets are open on a holiday schedule, but not all. Visit the Rexall website for store hours.

Malls: All major shopping centres in Hamilton, Burlington, St. Catharines and Niagara Falls will be closed on Good Friday. Exceptions include:

  • Outlet Collection at Niagara Falls: Open from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.
  • CF Toronto Eaton Centre: Open noon to 7 p.m.
  • Toronto Premium Outlets in Halton Hills: Open Friday from 9:30 a.m. to 7 p.m. and Sunday from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m.
  • Pacific Mall in Toronto: Open between 11 a.m. and 7 p.m.
  • Vaughan Mills will be open from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m.

In Toronto, retailers in designated tourist areas such as Yorkville, downtown Yonge, Queen’s Quay West and the Distillery District can stay open Good Friday, according to City of Toronto bylaws.

Walmart: All Walmarts in the GTHA will be closed Good Friday and Easter Sunday except the Niagara Falls Supercentre on Oakwood Drive, which is open between 7 a.m. and 11 p.m. on those days.

Alcohol

The Beer Store: All stores will be closed Good Friday and Easter Sunday.

LCBO: All stores will be closed Good Friday and Easter Sunday.

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Wine Rack: Most Hamilton locations will be closed on Good Friday and Easter Monday except for the Wilson Street West location in Ancaster and the Guelph Line outlet in Burlington.

Wilson Street will be open Noon to 5 p.m. on Good Friday and 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Easter Sunday. Guelph Line will open 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Friday and Sunday.

Tourist destinations

Niagara Falls: Some Niagara Falls attractions are closed during the early spring, including the Whirlpool Aero Car and Wildplay Whirlpool Adventure Course, and the White Water Walk.

However, some, like the Niagara City Cruises, Journey Behind the Falls, Niagara Falls History Museum and The Exchange, and the Niagara Power Station are open and will be operating on Good Friday and Easter Sunday. Hours of operation can be seen on the Niagara Parks website.

The Butterfly Conservatory will be open on Good Friday and Easter Sunday between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m.

Toronto: Most Toronto attractions are either closed or have adjusted hours on Good Friday and Easter Sunday.

  • The Hockey Hall of Fame will be open from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.
  • The Toronto Zoo will be open from 9:30 a.m. to 6 p.m.
  • The Ontario Science Centre will be open from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.
  • Ripley’s Aquarium will be open from 9 a.m. to 11 p.m.
  • The Art Gallery of Ontario will be open from 10:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.
  • The Royal Ontario Museum will be open from 10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m.
  • The Aga Khan Museum will be open from 10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m.

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CRA pausing new 'bare trust' reporting requirement just days before filing deadline – CBC News

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The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) is hitting pause on a new “bare trust” reporting requirement with just a few days remaining before the deadline.

New reporting requirements for such trust arrangements were introduced for the 2024 tax season. Anyone with a bare trust was required to file a T3 tax return form naming the trustees, beneficiaries and settlors of each trust by April 2.

But on Thursday — with four days before the deadline to file — the CRA announced that it would be pausing the reporting measures.

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“In recognition that the new reporting requirements for bare trusts have had an unintended impact on Canadians, the Canada Revenue Agency will not require bare trusts to file a T3 … for the 2023 tax year, unless the CRA makes a direct request for these filings,” a statement released by the tax agency said.

John Oakey, a vice president with the Chartered Professional Accountants of Canada, said the government hasn’t done a great job of communicating the changes.

“There’s no advertising from the government saying these are coming. You don’t see an ad on the television. You don’t see ads in magazines,” he said.

“The only way that individuals are really finding out is from advisers, financial institutions … people that are already aware of these rules.”

No definition of ‘bare trust’ in Income Tax Act

There is no definition of a bare trust in the Income Tax Act. The CRA defines a bare trust as “arrangement under which the trustee can reasonably be considered to act as agent for all the beneficiaries under the trust with respect to all dealings with all of the trust’s property.”

Unlike express trusts, where people seek out a lawyer to create a trust, bare trusts can happen almost accidentally — when a parent cosigns a mortgage for a child and becomes partial owner, or when an aging parent puts their kids down as partial owners of their house in anticipation of an impending death.

Oakey said a bare trust could also be something as simple as a shared bank account.

“If I put my name on [my parents’] bank account in order to help them pay their bills, that creates a trust relationship,” he said.

“I have no real control over the asset. I still have to adhere to their wishes. All I’m doing is acting as an agent on their behalf to do whatever they want me to do.”

In those cases, the bare trust does not earn any money for the trustee to report in a given tax year.

Even though Canadians wouldn’t have been taxed on a trust’s value, failure to report being a member of a bare trust could have resulted in a fine of $2,500, or five per cent of the value of all property in the trust, whichever is higher.

The requirement was meant as a way to crack down on tax avoidance. Corporations and wealthy individuals sometimes hold properties in bare trusts so they can avoid paying property transfer taxes. Oakey said the move was also likely an effort to crack down on money laundering.

The CRA said it would be working to “to further clarify its guidance on this filing requirement” over the coming months.

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Economy grows more than expected, keeping the Bank of Canada 'on its toes' – Financial Post

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January GDP strongest monthly growth in a year

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The Canadian economy surprised to the upside in January, posting its strongest monthly growth in a year, which could keep the Bank of Canada “on its toes,” say economists.

Real gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the value of goods and services produced during a specific time frame, edged up by 0.6 per cent in January, according to Statistics Canada, beating analysts’ expectations of 0.4 per cent. The agency also expects a 0.4 per cent rise in GDP during February.

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“To put that two-month flurry of growth into perspective, the combined one per cent gain is as much as the economy grew in the entire 12 months of 2023,” Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter said in a note. “After a prolonged lull through much of last year … the economy looks to have caught some strong tailwinds early this year.”

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The rise in GDP was due to broad-based growth in 18 of the 20 sectors measured by Statistics Canada.

The public sector, which includes education, health care and social assistance and public administration, increased 1.9 per cent in January, following two consecutive monthly declines. Education, which grew by six per cent, was the largest contributor to the country’s growth as activity rebounded from strikes by public sector workers in Quebec late last year.

Manufacturing fully recouped December’s decline in growth with a 0.9 per cent rise in January. A sudden drop in temperature in mid-January in parts of Canada contributed to increased activity in the utilities sector, which rose by 3.2 per cent, its highest growth rate since January 2022.

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The real estate and rental sector grew for a third consecutive month — by 0.4 per cent — on higher resale activity. The Greater Toronto Area, Hamilton-Burlington and most markets in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe contributed to the growth.

The information and cultural services sector, which includes the motion picture and sound recording industry, also grew for the third consecutive month, as activity continued to ramp up following the end of a strike by the Screen Actors Guild – American Federation of Television and Radio Artists in November.

These “robust” figures could pose a difficult challenge for the Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Marc Ercolao said in a note.

While the central bank has received “solid evidence” in the past two months that inflation is cooperating, “strong GDP data prints” such as today’s will “keep them on their toes,” said Ercolao, who expects the first interest rate cut to take place in July.

On the labour front, Statistics Canada said there were 632,100 job vacancies in January, down 34,800, or 5.2 per cent, from November. Vacancies in the manufacturing sector declined by 10.2 per cent to 37,500, the lowest level since September 2017.

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Monthly payroll increases were recorded in 13 of 20 sectors, led by retail trade, manufacturing and finance. But these gains were offset by a 0.3 per cent decline in construction.

The number of employees receiving pay and benefits from their employers, as measured by payroll employment, rose for the first time in the retail trade after four consecutive monthly declines.

Despite the strong start to the year, some economists expressed caution, especially regarding February’s GDP estimate.

Claire Fan, an economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, said the “substantially stronger-than-expected” numbers are partially driven by one-off factors such as the ending of the Quebec teachers’ strike, so growth isn’t likely to be sustained in the coming months.

“We’ve learned to take the advance estimates (February) with a grain of salt as they have been highly revision prone,” she said, while retaining RBC’s assessment of a weak economic backdrop.

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BMO’s Porter said Canada experienced something similar last year when GDP stalled after a strong start to the year.

“There could be a serious issue with seasonality here, especially in light of much milder winters recently,” he said.

Despite the increase in GDP, most economists have stuck to their previous predictions that June will be when the Bank of Canada issues its initial interest rate cut.

• Email: nkarim@postmedia.com

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