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This Investment Trend Will Deliver A Profit Bonanza In 2021 – Forbes

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What exactly are we to do in this levitating market? Buy more? Pull back? Do nothing?

I get why most folks are uneasy these days—they’re seeing the stock market, and particularly tech stocks, heading into the stratosphere, while the economy that supports them is a mess. Stocks can’t hang in midair forever, the thinking goes. Eventually they’ll plunge to earth.

A (Pleasant) Surprise in a Lousy Year

Don’t buy this argument. Because in the weird market we’re in, stocks can not only hover but actually rip higher and hand us growing dividends, too. Let me show you what I mean, starting with the economy.

Sure, GDP cratered 34.3% in the lockdown-riddled second quarter, but it rebounded 38% in the third quarter to get back to near its pre-crisis level. Still, our economy is still behind, so shouldn’t stocks be behind as well?

Remember that stocks are forward looking—they’re not priced based on present earnings but future earnings growth. And since the first half of 2020 saw some shocking earnings declines due to the lockdown, the strong implication here is that the first half of 2021 will see tremendous earnings growth just because the comparables are so low, never mind the effect that three (and possibly more) vaccines in the coming months will have on consumer spending.

From Travel to E-Commerce—and Back Again?

What’s more, consumer spending has reshuffled, giving more support to both the S&P 500 and the tech sector than most investors believe.

When you dive into the third-quarter data, you see that earnings declines are mostly concentrated where you’d expect them: in the travel and leisure sectors. But it’s important to remember that travel-spending declines are destined to be short-lived. When vaccines are out and people can travel again, pent-up demand will spur earnings in the sector.

Now, if we saw a massive growth in travel-related stocks before those higher earnings were released, you could say this sector has gotten out of hand. But in reality, that’s not the case.

The airline-industry-focused US Global Jets ETF (JETS)

JETS
,
which holds major carriers like Delta Air Lines (DAL

DAL
), Southwest Airlines

LUV
(LUV)
and JetBlue Airways

JBLU
(JBLU),
remains behind the broader market. This shows that investors are waiting for clearer evidence of the big earnings boost a return to travel will provide. But this doesn’t mean it’s time to run out and buy JETS—or load up on any travel-related stocks, because any profit gains in that sector will likely be tempered.

In theory, it makes sense that you’d see a shift of discretionary spending from e-commerce to travel as soon as people aren’t stuck in the house anymore. But this implies that a big driver of the e-commerce shift has been vacation money that people simply redirected to online purchases. But there’s more to this story.

More Than Travel Goes Online

E-commerce data shows a steady shift in spending from offline to online until COVID-19, when that trend accelerated. People who had bought little to nothing online were now buying groceries through the web. The Internet had become a place to buy essentials, not just discretionary goods.

The pace of this spending growth is essential to understanding how durable this trend is. Since the 32% jump in online spending began at the start of the shutdown, and with that spending staying high throughout the third quarter, we can see that the increase wasn’t driven by discretionary spending (or it would have shown up later), and it wasn’t driven solely by one-time panic buying of essentials (or it wouldn’t have lasted into the third quarter).

In other words, Americans’ pivot to e-commerce will likely continue, which justifies the tech sector’s big gains for 2020 (since those companies are largely connected to online shopping) while also justifying the S&P 500’s lower but still-strong returns (since the companies producing many of the products consumers are buying are benefiting from the shift to e-commerce).

The bottom line? Now is not the time to worry about a bubble, in either tech or the market as a whole, even if the big deals in stocks we saw earlier this year are over.

Michael Foster is the Lead Research Analyst for Contrarian Outlook. For more great income ideas, click here for our latest report “Indestructible Income: 5 Bargain Funds with Safe 8.8% Dividends.

Disclosure: none

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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