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This is why gold is below $1800 even as U.S. inflation hits a 40-year high at 9.1% – Kitco NEWS

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(Kitco News) – The gold market has bounced off its low but is still struggling to find solid bullish momentum after U.S. inflation rose 9.1% in June.

Some gold investors have been frustrated with gold’s recent price action as the precious metal is traditionally seen as an inflation hedge. As markets digest the latest Consumer Price Index report, gold is starting to see some solid gains. August gold futures last traded at $1,738.30 an ounce, up 0.72% on the day.

However, some analysts note that gold’s relatively disappointing price action makes sense within a broader market scope.

Despite gold’s rally, analysts note that the precious metal is generally struggling as an inflation hedge because markets don’t see inflation as a long-term threat as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates. Following the June Consumer Price Index report, markets are now pricing in a more than 50% chance that the U.S. central bank will move by a full 1.00%. For comparison, markets were only pricing in less than 8% chance Tuesday.

“While in theory gold prices should benefit from higher inflation numbers, the reality is that these higher inflation figures suggest that the Fed is likely to become even more aggressive in rasing rates to quell strong inflation. This is resulting in a stronger U.S. dollar versus other major currencies as well as placing a lid on future inflation expectations,” said commodity analysts at CPM Group in a note to clients.

Although inflation is rising, the Federal Reserve’s resolve to bring it down is pushing real yields higher, causing breakeven rates to fall. Breakeven rates, the difference between nominal and real yields, have fallen across the curve at the fastest pace in two years.

In a recent interview with Kitco News, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said noted the discrepancy between inflation and the one-year/one-year breakeven rate of below 4%. At the same time, the five-year/five-year breakeven rate is hovering around 2.6%.

“We got a 5% discrepancy between where inflation is expected to be in the years’time and where it is right now. Are we going to see inflation drop 5%? I sincerely doubt it. But for now, the market is betting on the Fed’s ability to hike rates and for growth to come down, taking inflation with it,” he said.

Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC, said that she expects inflation pressures to continue to ease as the Federal Reserve aggressively tightens interest rates.

“Our forecast to get the ceiling for the fed funds rate up to 3.25% this year, combined with higher prices dampening consumer demand in discretionary areas of the economy, should produce enough of a growth slowdown to quell inflation in 2023 and to prevent a de-anchoring of inflation expectations,” she said.



Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said that the broad-based drop in commodities, with copper falling to multi-year lows, signals that recession fears are replacing inflation fears.

“The underlying inflation pressure from commodity prices has started to ease,” he said. “people are expecting a, a demand to come down as a global recession hits. That is why commodities are coming down,” he said.

However, the question remains if a recession will cause enough demand destruction to impact the significant global supply issues. He added that this will determine just how persistent inflation will be through 2023.

Analysts have noted that the global economy faces fundamental supply issues. Tuesday Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said that it sees oil demand growing to 102.99 million barrels per day, up from 100.29 million barrels per day forecasted for this year. The forecast suggests oil supplies could remain constrained next year as growth in non-OPEC output, which has been hit by Russian losses, lags the rise in demand.

Oil isn’t the only market facing growing demand and weak supply. Copper prices have dropped sharply in recent weeks, but warehouse levels are at historic lows.

According to inventory data, LME warehouses held just 696,109 tonnes of registered copper at the end of June. Analysts have said that this is the lowest level seen this century.

“The big question out there is what will it take to get prices down? How deep of a recession are central banks going to have to force to get inflation under control?” said Cieszynski.

Although gold is oversold, Cieszynski said he couldn’t rule out price testing support at $1,680 an ounce in the near term.

However, he added that gold continues to show some relative strength compared to other assets, particularly in the face of massive momentum in the U.S. dollar.

“Overall, gold has held up well when we compare it with what other currencies have done,” he said.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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