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This week is going to be huge for the stock market – Yahoo Canada

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Lucas Jackson/Reuters

  • This week will be a big one for the stock market as investors confront a wave of data.

  • The two biggest companies in the world, Microsoft and Apple, will report earnings results.

  • Investors also have to navigate a Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the January jobs report.


It’s about to be a huge week for the stock market as investors confront a wave of economic data and decide whether the ongoing rally to record highs has staying power or not.

The S&P 500 is coming off two weeks that saw record highs in the benchmark index, buoyed by earnings optimism and data showing that the US economy is growing at a healthy clip even as inflation continues to show signs of cooling.

This week, though, could make or break the rally of the last two weeks, with three big events looming for investors.

Mega-cap earnings frenzy

The frenzy kicks off on Tuesday with the earnings results from mega-cap tech companies Microsoft and Alphabet. Investors will be keenly focused on commentary related to artificial intelligence, of which both companies are at the forefront of, and how it will impact their business in 2024 and beyond.

Earnings guidance will be key because profit expectations among analysts are on the high end this year after low single-digit profit growth in 2023.

“Markets are walking a fine line between expecting lower interest rates and higher corporate earnings,” DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas said in a recent note to clients. “US equity valuations offer little room for error.”

According to data from FactSet, Wall Street expects 2024 S&P 500 earnings growth of 12.2%, which has accelerated in recent months and is well above the 10-year average of 8.4%. Any disappointment in earnings guidance could send the stock market reeling as analysts adjust their profit estimates lower.

Enter the Fed

Fast forward to 2 pm this Wednesday and investors will be squarely focused on the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision and a follow-up speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30pm.

While the Fed is expected to keep interest rate unchanged, Powell will likely offer insights into when the central bank will consider its first interest rate cut since 2019, in addition to how may rate cuts it foresees in 2024.

Investors currently expect six 25 basis point interest rate cuts from the Fed in 2024, but the Fed has guided for only three rate cuts.

That’s a big disconnect, and it has market-moving implications as the gap between investors and the Fed narrows.

“This level of economic growth alongside a tight labor market and above-target inflation is likely to make the journey across the monetary policy bridge longer and riskier, with market players now pricing in the first Fed cut in May vs. March,”  José Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers said in a note seen by Business Insider.

After the Fed, earnings season will have another big day on Thursday, with heavyweights Apple and Amazon set to release their fourth-quarter results.

By the end of next week, more than $10 trillion in S&P 500 market value will have reported earnings results, giving investors a good sense of the current state of corporate profit growth.

Jobs report on deck

The week will be capped off by an economic data dump on Friday with the release of the January jobs report and an update to the unemployment rate.

Current estimates suggest the economy will have added 216,000 jobs in January, with an unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%.

A strong jobs report, coupled with the strong fourth-quarter GDP report, could delay the Fed’s interest rate cut schedule, whereas any signs of weakness in the labor market would hasten the Fed’s decision to cut rates as they seek to avoid a recession.

The one-two punch of corporate earnings from America’s biggest companies and economic data could ultimately set the direction of the stock market for weeks to come as investors grapple with whether or not the record rally can continue.

“Market direction is likely to be determined by investors focusing on the potential for a strong economy to support earnings growth, or fears that prolonged monetary tightening will challenge earnings, valuations, and economic prospects,” Torres said.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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