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This week is going to be huge for the stock market – Yahoo Canada

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Lucas Jackson/Reuters

  • This week will be a big one for the stock market as investors confront a wave of data.

  • The two biggest companies in the world, Microsoft and Apple, will report earnings results.

  • Investors also have to navigate a Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the January jobs report.


It’s about to be a huge week for the stock market as investors confront a wave of economic data and decide whether the ongoing rally to record highs has staying power or not.

The S&P 500 is coming off two weeks that saw record highs in the benchmark index, buoyed by earnings optimism and data showing that the US economy is growing at a healthy clip even as inflation continues to show signs of cooling.

This week, though, could make or break the rally of the last two weeks, with three big events looming for investors.

Mega-cap earnings frenzy

The frenzy kicks off on Tuesday with the earnings results from mega-cap tech companies Microsoft and Alphabet. Investors will be keenly focused on commentary related to artificial intelligence, of which both companies are at the forefront of, and how it will impact their business in 2024 and beyond.

Earnings guidance will be key because profit expectations among analysts are on the high end this year after low single-digit profit growth in 2023.

“Markets are walking a fine line between expecting lower interest rates and higher corporate earnings,” DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas said in a recent note to clients. “US equity valuations offer little room for error.”

According to data from FactSet, Wall Street expects 2024 S&P 500 earnings growth of 12.2%, which has accelerated in recent months and is well above the 10-year average of 8.4%. Any disappointment in earnings guidance could send the stock market reeling as analysts adjust their profit estimates lower.

Enter the Fed

Fast forward to 2 pm this Wednesday and investors will be squarely focused on the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision and a follow-up speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30pm.

While the Fed is expected to keep interest rate unchanged, Powell will likely offer insights into when the central bank will consider its first interest rate cut since 2019, in addition to how may rate cuts it foresees in 2024.

Investors currently expect six 25 basis point interest rate cuts from the Fed in 2024, but the Fed has guided for only three rate cuts.

That’s a big disconnect, and it has market-moving implications as the gap between investors and the Fed narrows.

“This level of economic growth alongside a tight labor market and above-target inflation is likely to make the journey across the monetary policy bridge longer and riskier, with market players now pricing in the first Fed cut in May vs. March,”  José Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers said in a note seen by Business Insider.

After the Fed, earnings season will have another big day on Thursday, with heavyweights Apple and Amazon set to release their fourth-quarter results.

By the end of next week, more than $10 trillion in S&P 500 market value will have reported earnings results, giving investors a good sense of the current state of corporate profit growth.

Jobs report on deck

The week will be capped off by an economic data dump on Friday with the release of the January jobs report and an update to the unemployment rate.

Current estimates suggest the economy will have added 216,000 jobs in January, with an unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%.

A strong jobs report, coupled with the strong fourth-quarter GDP report, could delay the Fed’s interest rate cut schedule, whereas any signs of weakness in the labor market would hasten the Fed’s decision to cut rates as they seek to avoid a recession.

The one-two punch of corporate earnings from America’s biggest companies and economic data could ultimately set the direction of the stock market for weeks to come as investors grapple with whether or not the record rally can continue.

“Market direction is likely to be determined by investors focusing on the potential for a strong economy to support earnings growth, or fears that prolonged monetary tightening will challenge earnings, valuations, and economic prospects,” Torres said.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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